UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 October 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

CIMB Classic and BMW Masters

Last Week

Hideki Matsuyama, our main bet, withdrew before the off last week. He stated illness as the reason but in reality it is likely he wanted a break from a hectic schedule before travelling to Malaysia. Our stakes returned.

Ben Martin missed the cut and cost us 1.5 points. He never got going. A similar story with Stone in Perth. It’s just not happening for him right now.

James Driscoll made it a profitable week. He shot -8 in a low scoring round one in Vegas to secure a place in the first round leader market. He won us 9.13 points meaning we won 6.63 points on the week. Incredibly we are now back in profit for the year. Having accumulated almost 150 points in losses half way through the season this feels almost as good as winning 150 points of profit last season! Now lets try and make another 150 points before the year is out!

This Week

Tournaments this time of year are very difficult from a value punting perspective. Favourite backers can easily fill their boots in these lopsided markets, but only if the big guns are running hot. With question marks against a lot of the big names going into ‘wheelbarrow’ season, this certainly isn’t an angle I will be taking.

Many of them are coming off breaks and many have just not been producing the sort of form you would want, especially if you are considering taking single figure prices. They are also raking up some serious air miles and experiencing jet lag, fatigue and playing in foreign environments on different grasses etc. There certainly is a lot to take into account when trying to back players at this time of year.

On the flip side of this it is hard to see some of the smaller names either having the ability or bottle to close out, what would be, life changing events. So the favs are free wheeling trying to line their pockets, relatively stress free and the others are going to be grinding hard to change their lives, feeling the pressure. Interesting.

BMW Masters

Henrik Stenson and Rory Mcilroy are joint 8/1 favourites. Stenson is preferred out of the two despite Rory’s fantastic record in the event. The concern with Stenson is he is coming of a break after an unreal run of form. Sometimes when you play well you are not fully aware of what you are achieving and you just keep going, when you have time to sit back and think you amaze yourself with what you have achieved and it is then hard to get going again, expectations change. Also, with shallower reasoning, there are reports that he is not fully fit. It’s reported that he needs an MRI scan on his wrist and is trying to play through the pain. Not ideal.

Rory did not beat a weak field in Korea last week. He rallied late and showed his ball striking is close. His putter was still cold and to get to a score of around -20, which you need to win this, you need to hole your fair share. I think we can put a line through both, especially at the prices.

Kaymer has been playing better of late and has a good record in the Far East. 16/1 about someone who has not won for a long time does not appeal, however. Donald I like but has not been his usual, consistent self this year and the fact he has recently started working with a new coach to make some “major changes” is a concern. You can go on making arguments for and against the top of this market.

The one that has appeal is Brett Rumford. Rummy finished 6th last week in Perth where he could just not get going on the final day. He won in China earlier this year at the Volvo China Open and backed it up with a win in Korea. He obviously enjoys this part of the world and has 3 top 10’s and a top 15 in his last 5 starts. You can back him at 60/1 for this week and although he will need to be at his best and others not at theirs, he is worth a bet.

The only other play I am going to make here is Wen-Chong Liang to finish top 10 at 10/1. This is a limited field with 78 runners. He finished 20th here last year and in his last four starts has finished tied 4th in Japan twice, 2nd on the One Asia Tour and 11th last week in Macau on the Asian Tour. Earlier this year he finished 5th in Russia and 3rd in Austria on the European Tour. He won the Singapore Open in 2007 and finished 8th in the USPGA in 2010. He has pedigree, is in form and confident. 10/1 is fair for a top 10 and if it were not for the class at the top of the market I would have been backing him at 125/1 in the outright too.

CIMB Classic

There is something strange and creepy about having a full blown PGA Tour event in Asia. One thing is for sure, it is a sign of things to come. Only this week there have been mentions of the USPGA leaving US soil. If the other world tours do not act quickly and set up some form of ‘world tour’ then the PGA Tour will undoubtedly steam roll them all.

The CIMB Classic offers the full package of exemptions to the winner. FedEx Cup points, official earnings, starts at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, The Masters, The Players Championship and the USPGA. A lot to play for. 10 Asian Tour players have received invites and 12 will play in total. This is an opportunity of note for them, especially as the event is now played on the West Course at Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club. A course which is familiar to all 12 as it has hosted the Malaysian Open in 2006 and 2010-2013. This course suits the Asian guys and Koreans have an especially strong record here. It is only 6967 yards long, par 72, with smallish greens covered with seashore paspalum grass.

I like a lot of players here. None more so than Matsuyama but at 18/1 I can’t be a backer. We know this guy is awesome and fearless but he is up against some big guns here like Mickelson (10/1), Garcia (14/1), and Bradley (16/1). When you can back form players like Delaet at 33/1, backing Matsuyama at 18/1 does not feel like value but this is his part of the world and I wouldn’t blame anyone for a making a win only play, but I am not going to.

I am however going to back Kiradech Aphibarnrat at 50/1. He won the CIMB last year, won on this course earlier this year (Maybank Malaysian Open) and finished 4th last time out in the CJ Invitational in Korea. He has played well this year outside of Asia but this is his turf and I expect him to go well.

Charlie Hoffman is a player I had next to Ryan Moore, Moore is 35/1 and Hoffman is 50/1. He finished 5th last week in Vegas, which admittedly is his home town, but has shown good form through the last year or so, registering 5 top 10’s in last season’s compressed schedule. Last week he hit 86% of greens, his game is in good shape and apart from a lack of proven form away from the US he ticks the right boxes.

My other outright bet is John Huh at 80/1. Huh is a short but accurate player and will like this venue. The big key for me is he won the Mayakoba Classic in 2012 (we backed him at 100/1!), and the greens there are also paspalum grass. One of only two venues on Tour with this grass. He closed with a 66 last week to finish 30th, that could be a nice warm up for this.

I am going to have three other value plays in this. Firstly Scott Hend to be first round leader at 66/1. He finished 11th on this course in the 2012 Malaysian Open and has won three times this year, two out of his last 3 including last week, where he was making birdies at will. I don’t think the big hitting Aussie will hang around the whole week but with his tail up he can continue his impressive form into the first round here.

Mohd Siddikur is an Asian Tour money making machine. He is a plodder who can putt. He finished 3rd in Taiwan a few weeks ago and 7th last week in Macau. Winning this is perhaps a little beyond him but he can battle on for a top 10 which he did in this event in 2010, although on another course. He is an experienced contender that does not have the fire power to win a lot, but the Bangladeshi can hang around for a top ten at 20/1. In the same market I am going to back Seuk-Hyun Baek at 14/1. His last 6 events he has finished 3rd Asian Tour, 5th Asian Tour, 27th Japan Tour, 6th Asian Tour, 4th In Korea and 9th last week in Macau. He currently sits 5th on the Asian money list behind Aphibarnrat, Hend, Bhuller and Liang. Three of which we have backed! He is very much in the same mold as Aphibarnrat, a big, chunky, young guy who lives in Thailand. He recently said he thinks a win is close and how a change of putter (before this recent run of impressive form) has boosted his confidence.

A lot of bets this week, but relatively low stakes at decent prices I think makes the volume acceptable. I also hope I have not overrated the Asian Tour players!

BMW Masters

0.75 points each way Brett Rumford @ 60/1 (-1.5 points)

Special Bet

0.5 points Wen-Chong Liang to finish in the top 10 @ 10/1 (-0.5 points)

CIMB Classic

0.75 points each way Charlie Hoffman @ 50/1 (-1.5 points)
0.75 points each way Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 50/1 (+8.63 points)
0.5 points each way John Huh @ 80/1 (-1 point)

Special Bets

0.75 points each way Scott Hend to be first round leader @ 66/1 (-1.5 points)
0.5 points Mohd Siddikur to finish in the top 10 @ 20/1 (-0.5 points)
0.5 points Seuk-Hyun Baek to finish in the top 10 @ 14/1 (-0.5 points)



2013 running total = +2.77 points. This week’s investment 8.5 points. This weeks P&L = +1.63

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
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