UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 November 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

SA Open, Aus PGA and World Cup of Golf

Only my confidence in team USA made last week bearable.  They lead from the first session and despite an International team charge in the singles their victory never really looked in doubt.  They were simply the better team. Elsewhere there was disappointment.  Nobody really increased the heart rate with their performances.  We lost 5 points on the week with our running total slipping back to +291.04 points for the year.

So on to this week.  Nothing looks particularly easy and on first look there was nothing that really stood out.  After a deeper analysis a few things popped out, nothing stand out but enough confidence to justify a small dabble.

Mission Hills in China is the host of this weeks World Cup of golf.  I am not a big fan as the event always seems a little flat, others must agree as it is now a bi-annual event which many players overlook.  The format is funky and only a decent prize fund attracts a few big players.  The concept of representing your country does not seem like a big deal here.

Ireland are represented by McDowell and McIlroy and are rightly favourites at 4/1.  They are the most likely winners and I feel like I should be backing them but the price is very off putting.  

I liked the look of Denmark on first inspection.  45/1 and represented by Bjorn and Anders Hansen, two players who have had big years.  I then found out that Bjorn had withdrawn through injury and replaced by Oleson.  Then the price looked correct.  USA are represented by Kuchar and Woodland.  I like that combination at 9/1.  Woodland brings the fire power in fourballs and Kuchar the brains and experience.  Woodland will be more adjusted to conditions and time differences after his visit to Japan last week and Kuchar will still be buzzing from last weeks Presidents Cup win.  I will put Scotland up along side them.  28/1 looks a little big about the very capable Gallacher and Laird combination.

The South African Open has 5 players quoted shorter than 20/1.  I hate markets like this.  There is no value in the most likely winners.  Ernie Els' 12/1 quote is a shocking price.  He has one top ten this year and one of the worst records, if not the worst in the Presidents Cup last week.  I appreciate he is defending champion and has an outstanding record in SA but I would rather be a layer than a backer at that price.  

I am going to go for two South Africans at decent prices.  James Kingston at 60/1 and Thomas Aiken at 33/1.  Aiken is long and can get hot with the putter.  He has not won this year despite having a number of chances and he is more than good enough to win this.  I rate him as a better player with more experience than Coetzee 12/1 and Van Zyl 16/1.  So 33/1 looks great value to me.  Kingston is a past winner and despite his nervous mannerisms is technically great and has a wise head.  I think 60/1 is value.

The Australian PGA is a trappy affair.   As for winning this event for me it is down to two players.  Scott and Day.  If they turn up they win.  Scott is the 7/1 favourite and is the one I am going to take as Day's single performance last week was an absolute shocker and he may well be asking himself some questions this week.  Scott is class and worth a decent punt at 7/1.  Nothing strikes me at bigger prices but you could do worse than Bubba Watson at 16/1.  Not for me as his record shows he does not travel well but looked in form last week.

 All prices with Geoff Banks Bookmakers - For the best service and prices bet with Geoff Banks -
www.geoff-banks.com

SA Open
1.5 points each way Thomas Aiken @ 33/1
1 pt each way James Kingston @ 60/1

Australian PGA
4 pts Adam Scott @ 7/1

World Cup of Golf
2 pts win USA @ 9/1
1 pt each way Scotland @ 28/1

2011 running total +291.04 pts This weeks investment 13 pts


To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


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