UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 May 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW PGA Championship and Fort Worth Invitational

BMW PGA Championship (In Running)


To Win


102.35 points Francesco Molinari @ 3.4 (+245.64)






No write up this week as off to Pebble Beach in the morning.

BMW PGA Championship



To Win


70.00 points Paul Casey @ 17 (-70)

Top 5


8.79 points Jinho Choi @ 81 (-8.79)
4.57 points Gavin Green @ 67 (-4.57)
5.51 points Jacques Kruyswijk @ 56 (-5.51)
5.37 points Ryan Fox @ 5.37 (-5.37)
6.05 points Yusako Myazato @ 29 (-6.05)


Top 10


26.57 points Jinho Choi @ 34 (-26.57)
10.80 points Jacques Kruyswijk @ 22 (-10.80)
16.81 points Ryan Fox @ 16.81 (-16.81)



Top 20


51.69 points Jinho Choi @ 13 (-15.69)
24.90 points Jacques Kruyswijk @ 10 (+10.46)
22.50 points Steven Brown @ 11 (-22.50)

First Round Leader

10.74 points Paul O'Hara @ 301 (-10.74)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)


67.89 points Hatton to beat Dunne @ 1.83 (push)



Fort Worth Invitational


To Win


42.70 points Brooks Koepka @ 34 (-42.70)
8.07 points Pat Perez @ 101 (-8.07)

Top 5


24.05 points Pat Perez @ 21 (-24.05)
12.00 points Chez Reavie @ 20 (-12)

Top 10


28.20 points Pat Perez @ 10 (-28.20)
24.90 points Chez Reavie @ 10 (-24.90)



Top 20


19.65 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 9 (push)


First Round Leader

2.00 points Jhonattan Vegas @ 126 (-2)
5.86 points Brooks Koepka @ 41 (-5.86)
2.00 points Pat Perez @ 81 (-2)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

59.82 points Cantlay to beat Wise @ 1.67 (-59.82)
75.27 points Simpson to beat Walker @ 1.67 (-75.27)

Specials

8.31 points each way double Paul Casey (17 BMW PGA) and Brooks Koepka (34 Fort Worth) (-16.62)








2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 501.68 points


This week's P&L = -248.19
This week’s investment = 755.68 points


This week's Outright P&L = -76.48
This weeks's Outright Investment = 536.08 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -171.71
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 219.60 points



2018 Total P&L = -498.32

2018 Total Investment = 13735.70 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = +219.40
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 6263.44 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -717.72
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 7636.94 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

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