UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 May 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW PGA Championship and Crowne Plaza Invitational

Nice week last week. One pick, one winner. Dufner hit it so good last week, some of the best ball striking stats I have ever seen. He rounded it off beautifully with a 25 foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to win by one. We won 41.25 points boosting our profits for 2012 to +58.83 points or £588.30 to a £10 stake.

Good. I got back from Sawgrass this morning and am flying to Slovenia tomorrow so this is going to be quick as jet lag looms. Lets look at the BMW PGA at Wentworth first. Tough one. It has thrown up a few big price winners over the last few years but the cream is never too far away. The course certainly favours a good driver of the ball and with the greens being far from perfect ball striking should be at a premium. Rose 22/1, Mcilroy 12/1, Peter Hanson 33/1 and Westwood 11/1 seem the most obvious contenders. Out of the four I like Rose the most. He is 13th in total driving on the US Tour, 4th in greens and 5th in scoring. He will have a new found confidence with his WGC win at Doral and boasts form figures of 11th in ’04, 2nd in ’07, 10th in ’10 and 2nd in ’11. He looks to have a similar chance to Westwood and Mcilroy but at twice the price he has to be the bet.

Hanson at 33/1 is worth a go too. He ties with Rose at 13th in total driving, 7th in greens and 4th in birdie average. Through the years players who have performed well at the Masters have also done well at Wentworth (and the Players). He is starting to deserve a big win as he continues to grow as a player.

At Colonial I like Senden 50/1, Van Pelt 25/1 and Dufner at 20/1. Van Pelt has been in great form this season and finished 3rd here last year. He seems over his wrist injury and looks to have a decent chance here. 5 top 20’s in 8 starts shows his liking for the venue. 25/1 is fair.

It seems risky to go with Dufner as he has won 2 of his last 3 starts. Also the scoring tends to go a little deeper at Colonial and that means you have to make putts. He was 2nd in driving accuracy last week, 8th in distance and 1st in greens, the putter was not what won him the tournament. 20/1 seems short enough in spite of his awesome recent form.

Senden is a 50/1 chance. He lost his two matches last week in Spain but is not far away. He ranks 1 in ball striking, 3rd in greens in reg and 9th in birdies. This should suit and 50/1 is fair for a player who finished 8th last year.

So there they are:

BMW PGA Championship

2 points each way Justin Rose @ 22/1
1 point each way Peter Hanson @ 33/1

Crowne Plaza Invitational

2 points each way Bo Van Pelt @ 25/1
1 point each way John Senden @ 50/1

2012 running total +58.83 points. This weeks investment 12 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf