UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 January 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Dubai Desert Classic and Farmers Insurance Open

Dubai Desert Classic

Dubai is always a fun week to watch. Low scoring, dramatic back drops, fast greens and a quality field. It also reminds us what good weather looks like!

The par 5s at The Emirates Golf Club is where the damage is normally done. It is a par 72 at 7328 yards and the winner will need to get into at least the high teens under par and, if no wind, then almost certainly into the 20s. This makes for good viewing.

When the wind blows, which it tends to more in the afternoons, things can get a little tricky but the course is exposed and the wind tends to be constant rather than gusty. The course tends to play quite fast with greens running at 12+ on the stimp. Ball strikers and good course managers have an advantage as being short sided is often very bad news. Right to left hitters will enjoy the shape of the course more than left to right hitters. Good putters can make them in bucketfuls around here and this can compensate for average ball striking. Also on the poorer strikers side this week is the fact the fairways have not been over-seedededed so should play firmer and shorter. The course always plays quite linksy, and if the wind blows with the firmer fairways, look for links form players to thrive and players to come from off the pace over the weekend.

As far as the market goes Bryson Dechambeau heads it up. He played here once in 2016 and finished 18th. I think we can all agree he is a far better player now. he has a superb understanding of the game and bullet proof confidence. Moreover he gets it done when he finds himself in contention. Having said this would I back him at 10/1, well no. I would have him at 22/1. But I do think he will have a big year and also think he goes well on softer courses where wind and bounces are less of a variable.

In fact, there is nobody I really fancy. I think Fleetwood should go well after a mediocre return to action last week in Abu Dhabi. He would be my best bet at 16/1 (I would be 12/1). I also think there is a bit of value in Adri Arnaus. He finished one shot outside the top 20 last week (unfortunately for us) and will enjoy the course again here. He hits it big and the Spanish have a cracking record on this course. Jimenez won in 2010, Quiros (very similar player and profile) in 2011, Bello in 2012 and Garcia in 2017. Arnaus is 200/1, I would be 66/1 but winning is a big ask for a rookie and he is better to support in the top 5/10/20 markets.

Bhullar offers some value too at 250/1, but is easy enough to pass over with one MC here in 2014 and a WD in his last but one start. Jimenez could also spring a surprise at 300/1 and will enjoy the shorter challenge and loves hitting it right to left. But I will leave the win market alone for now.


To Win

No bet

Top 5

0.25 units Adri Arnaus @ 40/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Gaganjeet Bhullar @ 66/1 (-0.25)

Top 10

0.5 units Adri Arnaus @ 16/1 (-0.5)
0.5 units Gaganjeet Bhullar @ 25/1 (-0.5)
0.5 units Justin Harding @ 20/1 (+2.5)
0.5 units JB Hansen @ 33/1 (-0.5)
0.25 units Kalle Samooja @ 66/1 (-0.25)
0.75 units Joost Luiten @ 7/2 (-0.75)
0.5 units Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 20/1 (-0.5)


Top 20


1 units Adri Arnaus @ 13/2 (-1)
0.75 units Gaganjeet Bhullar @ 9/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Justin Harding @ 9/1 (+5.25)
0.75 units JB Hansen @ 12/1 (-0.75)
0.5 units Kalle Samooja @ 22/1 (+9)
0.5 units Kristoffer Reitan @ 22/1 (-0.5)
0.75 units Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 8/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Erik Van Rooyen @ 5/1 (-0.75)
0.75 units Mike Lorenzo Vera @ 9/2 (-0.75)
0.75 units Matthias Schwab @ 9/2 (-0.75)
0.5 units Darren Fichardt @ 13/2 (-0.5)
0.5 units Shaun Norris @ 15/2 (-0.5)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2 points Fleetwood to beat Dechambeau @ Evs (-2)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
DeChambeau
9%
11.00

21.65
4.6%
-4.5%
-49.18
Fleetwood
7%
15.00

13.14
7.6%
0.9%
14.12
Oosthuizen
7%
15.00

17.14
5.8%
-0.8%
-12.48
Garcia
7%
15.00

16.05
6.2%
-0.4%
-6.55
Stenson
6%
17.00

24.11
4.1%
-1.7%
-29.49
Hatton
4%
23.00

34.51
2.9%
-1.5%
-33.36
Cabrera Bello
4%
24.00

29.63
3.4%
-0.8%
-19.01
Fitzpatrick
4%
26.00

26.58
3.8%
-0.1%
-2.17
Pieters
3%
29.00

28.77
3.5%
0.0%
0.80
Lowry
3%
34.00

39.20
2.6%
-0.4%
-13.27
Wallace
3%
34.00

65.53
1.5%
-1.4%
-48.12
Li
3%
34.00

69.04
1.4%
-1.5%
-50.76
Luiten
3%
36.00

30.47
3.3%
0.5%
18.14
Poulter
3%
36.00

43.19
2.3%
-0.5%
-16.64
Lewis
2%
41.00

46.99
2.1%
-0.3%
-12.75
Westwood
2%
41.00

43.33
2.3%
-0.1%
-5.37
Olesen
2%
41.00

103.00
1.0%
-1.5%
-60.19
Hun An
2%
46.00

70.10
1.4%
-0.7%
-34.38
Kaymer
2%
51.00

260.99
0.4%
-1.6%
-80.46
Smith
2%
56.00

134.87
0.7%
-1.0%
-58.48
Sullivan
1%
67.00

49.12
2.0%
0.5%
36.41
Bjork
1%
67.00

120.13
0.8%
-0.7%
-44.23
r Fisher
1%
67.00

123.40
0.8%
-0.7%
-45.70
Bjerregaard
1%
67.00

91.90
1.1%
-0.4%
-27.09
Detry
1%
71.00

268.13
0.4%
-1.0%
-73.52
Sterne
1%
81.00

62.47
1.6%
0.4%
29.66
Lipsky
1%
81.00

128.41
0.8%
-0.5%
-36.92
Kjeldsen
1%
81.00

115.34
0.9%
-0.4%
-29.77
Scrivener
1%
81.00

232.07
0.4%
-0.8%
-65.10
Fox
1%
91.00

80.87
1.2%
0.1%
12.52
Pepperell
1%
91.00

136.58
0.7%
-0.4%
-33.37
Larrazabal
1%
101.00

152.41
0.7%
-0.3%
-33.73
Burmester
1%
101.00

105.33
0.9%
0.0%
-4.11


Farmers Insurance Open

Class players win the Farmers Insurance. This is probably as the South course, used for three of the four rounds, is a genuine test and has hosted US Opens. The North plays the easier of the two and is almost 500 yards shorter yet offers the same par. The last 8 winners all played the South first. But since Weiskopf's redesign of the North in 2017, the scoring differential has gone from 3.29 shots to 1.4. It is easier, but before if you had not gone low on the North you had no chance, you could not make up the ground on the South.

Anything better than -10 tends to win this. The weather can get funky here with mist or wind and the greens do not tend to be at their best. Long hitting helps and straight hitting is negated a little as everyone misses fairways on these hard to find fairways. You're better off missing them a long way down there. Iron play is the key around here as leaving long putts on bumpy greens is not ideal, but if it blows good putters come back into it. It is not forecast to but this close to the sea it can not be ruled out.


To Win

0.25 units Rickie Fowler @ 25/1 (-0.25)


Top 5

0.75 units Rickie Fowler @ 13/2 (-0.75)

Top 10

1 unit Rickie Fowler @ 5/2 (-1)


Top 20


0.75 units Ryan Moore @ 6/1 (-0.75)
1 unit Branden Grace @ 7/2 (-1)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

No Bets

Player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Rahm
8%
12.00

13.09
7.6%
-1%
-8.36
Rose
7%
15.00

15.59
6.4%
0%
-3.79
McIlroy
6%
17.00

15.72
6.4%
0%
8.14
Day
6%
17.00

20.75
4.8%
-1%
-18.08
Woods
5%
19.00

30.09
3.3%
-2%
-36.85
Schauffele
5%
21.00

15.38
6.5%
2%
36.59
Leishman
5%
21.00

20.87
4.8%
0%
0.63
Finau
4%
23.00

22.48
4.4%
0%
2.34
Fowler
4%
26.00

12.30
8.1%
4%
111.35
Cantlay
3%
29.00

26.29
3.8%
0%
10.30
Woodland
3%
34.00

36.59
2.7%
0%
-7.07
Howell
3%
34.00

104.59
1.0%
-2%
-67.49
Spieth
2%
41.00

36.54
2.7%
0%
12.21
Reed
2%
41.00

39.33
2.5%
0%
4.24
Smith
2%
41.00

83.92
1.2%
-1%
-51.14
Champ
2%
41.00

210.25
0.5%
-2%
-80.50
Noren
2%
46.00

37.26
2.7%
1%
23.47
Bradley
2%
52.00

88.06
1.1%
-1%
-40.95
Snedeker
2%
52.00

114.77
0.9%
-1%
-54.69
Matsuyama
2%
56.00

41.16
2.4%
1%
36.05
Ancer
2%
56.00

103.19
1.0%
-1%
-45.73
Grillo
2%
61.00

56.63
1.8%
0%
7.72
Wise
1%
67.00

166.84
0.6%
-1%
-59.84
Horschel
1%
67.00

247.73
0.4%
-1%
-72.95
Berger
1%
71.00

106.07
0.9%
0%
-33.06
Stanley
1%
81.00

73.27
1.4%
0%
10.55
Grace
1%
81.00

88.17
1.1%
0%
-8.13
B Holmes
1%
81.00

194.95
0.5%
-1%
-58.45
List
1%
81.00

202.47
0.5%
-1%
-59.99
Im
1%
81.00

204.86
0.5%
-1%
-60.46
T Pan
1%
81.00

437.19
0.2%
-1%
-81.47
J Spaun
1%
101.00

233.73
0.4%
-1%
-56.79


This week's P&L =  +0.5
This week’s investment = 18 units


This week's Outright P&L = +2.5
This weeks's Outright Investment = 16 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -2
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 2 units



2019 Total P&L = -9.63 units

2019 Total Investment = 87.25 unites

2019 Outright Bets P&L = -8.27 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 51 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = -1.36 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 38.5 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks as 0.25 to 2.5 units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • 2.5 units - 2.5% of bankroll

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