UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 January 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Commercial Bank Qatar Masters and Farmers Insurance Classic

Not much to say about last week apart from I am sorry and I share your disappointment. None of the players really had a chance. Dufner put in the best Sunday fight but a final hole bogey confirmed we were not going to get any returns. We lost the 10.5 points invested and slipped back to -4 points for the year.

This week the Qatar Masters starts on a Wednesday. A nice last minute surprise for me! It does not look simple either. I love the look of 6 of the first 8 in the market.
Oosthuizen 8/1, Rose 10/1, Garcia 12/1, Hanson 16/1, Dufner 16/1 and Olesen 25/1 all have big chances. Out of those Louis seems short. Rose and Garcia are decent win bets but are tough to split. I would side with Rose with his recent form and more consistent long game but they both looked priced correctly. Hanson and Dufner look like they could break out as they both showed enough last week but again look about right. Hanson finished 3rd here last year. Olesen, who settled into his new equipment in great style last week making only one bogey on route to finishing T2, looks the real deal. Technically great he has a temperament, work ethic and desire to match. He got us paid at the Dunhill Links last year and coming off a big week you have the feeling he is going to go one way or the other. Will he kick on or will he simmer out? 25/1 looks about right on what will be a tough week to follow up.

It is tough to pick one of these 6 out. Like I say, I would not be surprised with any of them winning but there is not much value either. It is hard to back any of them each way as they don’t stand out too much from each other and at the same time none seem banker material. Instead I am going to look a little further down.
Anders Hansen has become a very steady, reliable performer. He finished 12th here last year and 9th last week. 45/1, 50/1 in a place looks a little on the big side and is worth siding with. Thongchai Jaidee is the same price and considering he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in his last four starts (10th in Hong Kong, 7th in DP World Tour Champs, 3rd Volvo Golf Champs and 9th last week) looks great value. I have to watch it when I get loyal to players who have rewarded me recently but 45/1 is definitely too big. He finished 20th last year and is in great nick.

Jbe Kruger looks interesting at 150/1. He finished 9th last week and looks big at the price. He finished last last time we backed him and he missed the cut by miles last year. He is a streaky player but I am not going to be with him here. Richie Ramsay is another who missed the cut here last year but finished 9th last week and would have been a lot closer if it were not for a final round 75. 66/1 is tempting but I think I will stick with my two to try and challenge the ‘big 6’.

In America we have the Farmers Insurance played at Torrey Pines.
Woods has won this six times but after seeing him in Abu Dhabi is very hard to back. He looked out of sorts for much and impressive in bits but needed the width of the course there, he will not have that luxury here. His putter was big for him in the Middle East and on the early season greens here that are not guaranteed to be great surfaces he looks opposable at 7/1. The event is played over two courses at Torrey Pines the first two days. The North and the South, then the final two on the South. The game plan will be take it as deep as possible on the North and hold on on the South. Straight driving and greens in regulation are a must. Being long is a decent help on the South which can play up to 7698 yards, the longest on tour. The forecast is to get colder, wetter and windier as the week goes on emphasising the combination of long hitting and accuracy.

I like three players.
Bo Van Pelt, Keegan Bradley and Robert Garrigus. Bradley finished 4th in the Hyundai in Kapalua and 49th in the Sony Open. He has two top 25’s in two starts here. He finished 22nd last year after a poor weekend but he ranked number 1 in total driving for that week. He drives the ball very well and has the ability to take it deep. 28/1 is not flashy but I do fancy him to go well here. Bo Van Pelt will come as no surprise. 35/1 looks very big to me in this line up. He finished 27th last week in his first event of the year. He hit over 80% of the greens and made very few putts for him, ranking 127th. He is normally a great putter and last week was all about holing putts. He ranked 8th in scrambling last week which is normally his Achilles heel, a good sign that he has been working hard. He missed the cut here last year before getting on his top 10 streak. His all round solid game should suit this and if he can warm the putter up again should be right in the mix.

Robert Garrigus’ long game is good enough to compete anywhere and it should come into it’s own this week. He finished 16th last week in his first event of 2013. He ranked 4th in greens hit, 9th in total driving, 2nd in par breakers, 2nd in birdies, 1st in ball striking. He has missed the cut here the last couple of years but he comes here with a lot of game and 55/1 looks on the big side to me.

It is a very competitive line up and historically has been won by guys with strong course form. These three have not got the course form but they represent very good value in my book.

Commercial Bank Qatar Masters

1 pt each way Thonghai Jaidee @ 45/1 (-2pts)
1 pt each way Anders Hansen @ 45/1 (-2pts)

Farmers Insurance Classic

1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 28/1 (-3pts)
1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 35/1 (-3pts)
1 pt each way Robert Garrigus @ 55/1 (-2pts)

Special Bets

2.2 pt dbl Vijay Singh to beat Scott Stallings @ 5/6 and Keegan Bradley to bt Nick Watney @ 10/11 (Coral) (-2.2pts)

1 pt Ross Fisher @ 6/1 top European in Farmers Insurance (+6 pts)

2013 running total = -4 pts. This week’s investment 15.2 points. This weeks P&L = -8.2 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.