UA-33754892-1 Archives for 20 February 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Price Update Mayakoba Golf Clasic

The early 66/1 was snapped up about Boo Weekly. Clearly a wrong price at 66/1. He still makes appeal at a ‘more correct’ price of 33/1. I will adjust my price on the tips accordingly.
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WGC - Accenture World Matchplay and Mayakoba Golf Classic

One of the biggest golf betting events of the year is here this week, but also one of the hardest. The Accenture World Matchplay. It is a tournaments where you always feel there a loads of good opportunities to win a few quid but golfers of this level can beat any other player on any given day. They are all capable of shooting 66 and if they do they are very hard to beat.

There is no one player to beat in golf at the moment. It feels as though they are all on a level playing field without the domination of Woods and no player really enjoying a hot streak, apart from perhaps Martin Kaymer. Woods and Casey share favouritism at 14/1. Casey has an extremely good record in the event and has a certain amount of appeal and if the rumours of Woods swing finally clicking (as John Cook has claimed) then he would be value at a price we very rarely see him at.

However, like I say.... anyone can win any game. Some of the outsiders in the matches are great value and I will be trying to pick a few as the week goes on.

My shortlist on the outright prices are Bill Haas 66/1, Kuchar 45/1, Stricker 33/1, Woods 14/1, Casey 14/1, Schwartzel 50/1 and Laird 100/1.

Woods 14/1, tempted as if he reaches the semis we can collect each way but he has too many questions to answer and although people think matchplay suits inconsistent players I disagree. I think you can’t give anything away in this 18 hole format and if you get a lead it is important your opponent does not think pars are good enough. I will pass on Woods. Casey is my idea of the most likely winner but is too short at 14/1.

This is the longest course on the US Tour but is played at altitude. Accurate irons and great scrambling are the two commodities that are important here. Bill Haas has had a really solid start to the year, his stats are unreal - 5th in greens in reg, 11th in birdies, 5th in eagles and 2nd in the all round rankings. He will be high on confidence and can go well at 66/1.

I think Matt Kuchar has become a great player and backing him was very profitable for us last year but I am not sure this format is for him despite being a former US Amateur Champion. Stricker at 33/1, his stats are great but he was not really firing at Riviera last week on a course he has done well at. May also be a little long for him. I pass. Laird is a huge price at 100/1 but as a rookie who is not as in form as Haas I will give him a miss and put Schwartzel in instead. He has not finished worse than tied 8th in his last 5 events worldwide and looks to have a decent draw. His game suits and he can be a big threat at 50/1.

That’s the outrights done. Tim Clark withdrew with a bad elbow today so JB Holmes steps in. Lets have a look at some of the 1st round matches. Ben Crane can beat Adam Scott but should maybe be a bigger price than 11/10. Schwartzel is 4/7 to beat Ishikawa but as he is an outright pick so we will leave that alone. Two time winner in 2011 Mark Wilson is 11/8 to beat Dustin Johnson. Johnson has looked poor the last two weeks and if he is slack here he can easily get turned over. It looks like a mismatch on paper but Wilson gets a play. Ryan Moore played great last week and despite shocking stats I fancy him to beat Francesco Mollanari at 11/10. All golfers react differently but he has just had his first child and may be a little rusty. Moore a former US Amateur Champion can beat him. Kyung-Tae Kim is a hidden superstar. At 24 he is the Japanese Order of Merit winner winning 3 times last year in some strong fields, he has a point to prove and can dismiss an out of sorts Jason Day. Day is a great player but has been suffering from illness and maybe should not be favourite in this one, take the 6/4.

Westwood should beat Stenson comfortably. 4/7 is probably about the right price. Hoffman is underrated and as a gut shot I fancy him to beat Donald at 7/4. Seung-Yul Noh is class and if he keeps his bottle he will at least give Kaymer a scare at 7/4. Last up, I do like Peter Hanson @ 6/5 to beat an overrated Rickie Fowler. Actually Fowler can be anything, his Ryder Cup performance last year was astonishing, 6/5 is not big enough.

Now how do we stake this without risking our brains!

Elsewhere the Mayakoba Golf Classic takes place in Mexico. An interesting field is assembled at the Greg Norman designed El Camaleon course. It is just over 7000 yards and although near the sea it is treelined with small, well guarded greens. Despite this and the chance of wind kicking up the scoring will go pretty low. Brian Gay is favourite and should go well. But 12/1 is hideously short. I would be tempted at twice that price. Same goes with Vegas, big shout but 16/1 is just a ridiculous price. Boo weekly is my pick, take the 66/1. Also throw in Nate Smith at 150/1 and we have two great each way chances running for us.

WGC - Accenture World Matchplay.

1pt each way Bill Haas @ 66/1
1pt each way Charl Schwartzel @ 50/1

Mayakoba Golf Classic

1pt each way Boo weekly @ 33/1 (adjusted price as the early 66/1 was corrected as a pricing error)
0.5pts each way Nate Smith @ 150/1

WGC - Accenture World Matchplay 1st Round Matches

2 pt double
Ryan Moore to bt Francesco Mollanari @ 11/10 and Kyung-Tae Kim to bt Jason Day @ 6/4

0.5 pt Trixie (3 doubles and a treble costing 2pts)
Mark Wilson to bt Dustin Johnson @ 11/8
Charlie Hoffman to bt Luke Donald @ 7/4
Seung-Yul Noh to bt Martin Kaymer @ 7/4


Special Bet

0.5pt Trixie (3 doubles and a treble costing 2pts)
Thomas Aitken to win Telkon PGA @ 11/2
Ryan Moore to bt Francesco Mollanari @ 11/10 Rd 1 Accenture Matchplay
Kyung-Tae Kim to bt Jason Day @ 6/4

2011 running total +115.5 pts This weeks investment 13pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.

Comments

Avantha Masters and Northern Trust Open Review.

Tough week. Five bets and five losers. In India Jaidee and Kruger were lurking all week. Jaidee was second going into the weekend even though he was making loads of mistakes. He continued to make the mistakes over the weekend without doing so much of the good stuff and finished 22nd. A 75-71 weekend is not what I expected from him. Kruger was tied second with two rounds to play after a stunning 66 in round two. A 6 bogey weekend was too many to counteract and he finished 16th.

In the States the picks performed particularly poorly. Y.E. Yang putted awfully to miss the cut, averaging 2.000 putts per green in regulation. Tough to compete when you can’t putt! Hunter Mahan was never in contention and finished 55th with symmetrical rounds of 72-71-72-71. Martin Laird was first round leader and threatened to get involved the rest of the week but 10 bogies and a double are too much to bounce back from in strokeplay..... but may in matchplay you can get away with it and he may be an interesting outsider next week. He finished 25th. Baddely, the winner, had 3 bogies and a double the whole week. Not bad for a guy who ranked 182 out of 188 in total driving at the start of a week where everybody talks about driving being so important! Without stack and tilt in his life he looks a much better player and expect to see him contend many more times this year, he is a natural winner and can close.

The email subscribers were given Jyoti Randhawa to beat David Howell in a first round 18 hole matchbet in India. Indeed Jyoti did beat Howler in 3 out of the 4 rounds but unfortunately round one was not one of them. This knocked my confidence to recommend Baddely to win entering round 4. An obvious bet but fantastic value at 9/4 with a one shot lead. The bookies were obviously expecting a run of bets on crowd favourite Freddie Couples and kept him short and tried to balance the books by easing Baddley who surely was a skinner with them all.

Do you think I should put a points system in place for the email only tips? I think it is important to rank performance but may start getting a little complicated. Let me know what you think.

Next week it is a highlight for all golf punters, the World Golf Championship Accenture World Matchplay. Am I really going to try and pick an outright winner? I think there will be a few emails during the week to highlight some matchbets. Also next week is the Mayakoba Golf Classic at Riviera Maya-Cancun, Mexico. A lot of people will pass this over with the excitement of the matchplay but there normally is value galore in these types of events. They are hard to price up for bookmakers with many relatively unknown players and are rushed to focus on the main event. I will certainly be having a sieve through the prices there and try and make up for the 10 pt loss this week.

We are now running at a 115.5pt profit or £1150.00 to a £10 stake for the year.



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