UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 October 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Perth International and The McGladery Classic

The Perth International starts on Thursday at Lake Karrinyup, which hosts for the third time. It has attracted a handful of international stars but the field lacks real depth. My feeling with this event is that if it plays firm the quality will come out, if it plays soft then it will be bunched and the outsiders have a shot.

Goosen won here a few years ago when it was rock hard. His -12 total won by 8 shots. The following year it was soft and with no changes to the course, Els shot -29. When it was firm two years ago Bo Van Pelt duelled it out with Dufner, pulling clear of the rest. Last year it was softer and Ross Fisher lost to Jin Jeong.

Reading through the press conferences, the players are suggesting it is slightly softer than usual but the wind is up. They had heavy rain and hail on Saturday but the course came out of it undamaged and the Course Superintendent said, “The greens will run at 12, just like last year, and the weather looks good for the rest of the week.” The wind can protect the scoring by itself but with wind and 30 degrees of heat it can dry it up quickly too. I am taking the view that it will be firm by the end of the week and the quality will out.

So who is the quality? Well, Schwartzel heads the market at 12/1 with Dubuisson right behind him at 14s. These are the two in the field that you would consider world class at the moment. Behind these Willett has a good record here and has been playing well but looks short at 18/1. I am not sure he contends enough to warrant a price that short. Ogilvy and Dufner are both 18-1 to 22-1 and have similar chances to each other. Dufner hasn’t played for 2 months with a neck injury. He says,

“Some days are better than others, it’s still not perfect. I have been able to play and practice at home for about two and a half weeks, I’m not sure how it will go, I’m going to find out, that’s what we’re here to see. I haven’t played competitive golf since I had to withdraw. But I feel a lot better. I feel like it was worth coming here to give it a go.”

Not massively convincing or reassuring. But would he really fly all that way if he wasn’t a little more comfortable and confident than that? If he is fit and playing anywhere near his best he has a big chance, but it seems like a risk to speculate at the price.

Ogilvy is the same. He hasn’t touched a club for four weeks since the Tour Championship. He was in form then, incredible form when compared to the previous few years. He took a three week break in the middle of the season, he spent it on beach in San Diego, he came back and went 32nd in Canada and won in Reno. He also finished second in the Deutsche Bank in the Fedex playoffs, with a pair of 65s on the weekend. But again, a four week break and a course he hasn’t played since his amateur days makes him hard to like at the price.

Out of the others I like Edoardo Molinari’s chances. He is a very classy player and in good form. He has a 4th, an 11th and a 13th in three of his last four. With course form, finished 28th here in 2012, he is worth a long look at 28/1. I like his chances.

The only other one that caught my eye was Tom Lewis at 100/1. He looks a huge price, has solid recent form and will take all the positives from a decent stint in Australia as an amateur in 2010. My concern with Tom is if it does firm up and get windy. Brett Rumford said the real challenge here begins on and around the greens. That’s coming from a player who owns one of the best short games on the planet. Lewis doesn’t. In fact it is very poor, as we saw when posting big numbers at the US Open, on a similar set up at Pinehurst.

Out of the two that head the market I prefer Schwartzel. Dubuisson may be a little golfed out after the Ryder Cup and a busy schedule both sides of the Atlantic. He also flew out here later than most, a 22 hour flight from Nice. “In the morning it is fine, it starts to become difficult at 2,3 in the afternoon” he said about the jet lag. Schwartzel is the one to back.

I don’t often back favourites but he has been solid this year without being spectacular. He had very consistent form leading into the Dunhill Links where he missed the cut. That form is boosted by the fact he only played big events during this spell. The Dunhill missed cut can be put down to the cold weather. Grinding it out in wind and rain is not what he is about. He is about playing pure golf in pure conditions. He can do this here.

“I’m just so comfortable, I like places I feel comfortable. I think its similar to South Africa in a way.” And it is, the course set up is very similar and the weather is the same. This should be perfect for him despite a missed cut in his only other appearance here in 2012. Of that he said, “I think I missed the cut by one and I couldn’t believe it. I played good and just got a couple of really bad breaks.” Winners need good breaks and it sounds like he is owed some. 12/1 is not huge, but worth backing. For me he is clearly the best player in this field and if on form, could run away with this. If you want to have a saver I would suggest Molinari and Lewis as decent options.

The McGladery Classic is a tough one to figure out. So many of the players live in Sea Island, Georgia and play and practice here all the time. It has to be a huge advantage. Not just the knowledge, but also the comfort of staying at home with family and friends.

Away from home advantage, short hitters who are accurate iron players and can run hot with the putter seem to do well here. Tim Clark has shot 62 here, Ben Crane 62, Tommy Gainey finished par, par for 60. Defending champion Chris Kirk can shift it off the tee but for me he is a player who’s strengths are accurate iron play and great putting. In fact, statistically, he is in the top 3 iron players on tour. The Seaside Course is only 7005 yards and even as a par 70 it will get ripped apart if the wind does not blow.

The 14/1 joint favourites are Matt Kuchar and Webb Simpson. Both live here. After watching the Ryder Cup the idea of Simpson being favourite for a US Tour event within weeks would have been a ‘laugh out loud’ moment. But his form since and form here does justify his price. Kuchar simply deserves his place at the top of this market, despite his best performance here in 3 starts being a tie for 7th. On the flip side his worst is 25th. More evidence of the most consistent player in golf. Having said this, neither them have much appeal at the price.

My first pick is Hudson Swafford. He lost his card but regained it at the Web.com Finals. He has five top 25s in a row including a 8th at The Frys.com two weeks ago and an 18th at The Shriners last week. Last season he putted awfully and this is the thing that has changed. He ranks 21st in putting this season and ranked 11th in greens last year. He fits the profile perfectly and is a nice price at 66/1.

I was excited to look for Harris English in the market. He lives here, is an awfully impressive player and hadn’t had a top 30 for four months before finishing 16th last week. He finished 15th here last year and I thought we could catch a strong player on an upward curve at a price. He is 33/1! I can’t believe that price. Suddenly I would rather lay him than back him!

Bill Lunde finished 20th here in 2012 with four 68s. Last week he was going well opening with 68-68-66 before closing with a poor 73 to finish 33rd. He is clearly a journeyman pro but he is a good iron player and plays well in the wind, and the wind is this course’s only defence. He is as big as 250/1 in places but generally available to back at 175/1. He is worth a small interest.

Adam Hadwin finished 10th last week in Vegas where he had a bogey free weekend including a Sunday 63. The Canadian rookie finished 53rd at The Frys.com and last week will have come as an enormous boost. A bit like we saw with Tony Finau, we backed him at the frys.com where he finished well, he got some big beliefas well as some money up on the board and contended again last week. But Hadwin has been playing well for a while. If you include the Web.com Finals in his form he has 5 top 10s in his last 7 starts. He can continue his good work here as he is in great form, is a strong iron player (17th in greens so far this season) and is obviously holing some putts too (ranked 22nd on web.com last year). 66/1 is fair.

My last pick is an absolute punt and comes in the form of Kyle Reifers at 300/1. When he was last on Tour in 2012 he was statistically better than his results showed. I appreciate results are more important than stats, but stats are a good guide. He has made the first two cuts of this season and finished 15th here in 2012. That came off the back of missed cuts in The Frys.com and The Shriners when fighting for his card. He is in a much better position now and the 32 year old from Ohio can get in the mix. He is a graduate from Wake Forest in religion. Webb Simpson must love him!


Perth International

2 points each way Charl Schwartzel @ 12/1

The McGladery Classic

0.5 points each way Kyle Reifers @ 300/1
0.5 points each way Bill Lunde @ 175/1
0.75 points each way Adam Hadwin @ 66/1
1 point each way Hudson Swafford @ 66/1

Specials

0.25 point each way trixie,
Edoardo Molinari @ 28/1 (Perth International), Thongchai Jaidee @ 9/1 (Venetian Macau Open) and Matt Kuchar @ 14/1 (The McGladery Classic)


2014 running total =  -59.27 points. This week’s investment 11.5 points. This weeks P&L = -11.5 points

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.












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