UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 May 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW PGA Championship and The Crowne Plaza Invitational

Another 5 points went last week. Hoffman and Walker both put in strong showings but came up a little short. Hoffman was in the places most of Sunday before two late bogies. Still getting good runs out of the chosen players but just not cashing in….. yet!

This week there are two good events. The BMW Championship at Wentworth and the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. In the BMW I am really struggling to pick one. At Colonial I am struggling not pick too many!

Wentworth is all about long game. Good, straight drivers and guys who find plenty of greens in regulation generally do well here. It is hard then to see how and why Donald has such good course form. His stats when in Europe are very different to when he plays in the States. He still putts good but he seems to find way more greens in regulation when on his travels. Maybe he likes coming home but certainly his finishes of 3, 35, 2, 1, 1 make him a very worthy favourite. Lee Westwood and Justin Rose are the other two I like if I was just trying to find the winner. Donald is 8/1, Westwood and Rose both 12/1. Tough to get involved at those prices in such a competitive event.

Others I looked closely at were Olesen, Colsaerts, Howell, both Molinaris and Havret. We know Olesen is class and this should be perfect for him. However he has two missed cuts here to his name and his recent form is not great. 55’s looked good but is a pass. Colsaerts is a similar story. 78th, MC, MC. 66/1 is big if he is anywhere near his best but course form and recent form rule him out. David Howell is a past winner and has been playing nicely this year. But he has been playing nicely in far inferior fields to this and has failed to get a place against them so this looks like a big ask for him. Francesco Molinari has not been his normal steady self this season, although better of late and despite decent course form is worth leaving alone at 40/1. Eduardo was of more interest at 150/1 but has never finished higher than 39th here despite it looking like a good fit for him. Havret has never finished higher than 38th here and again, I would have thought this would have suited but obviously not.

The only guy who looks a decent price and has a decent shout is Marcus Fraser. The Aussie has a good record at Wentworth going back years but is proven on the new course too finishing 4th in 2011. 100/1 is not huge but when you consider his Asian form and his 5th in Dubai and 2nd at The Ballantines it appears fair. Like I said, it is a very strong line up and as much as I would love to really get involved in the event there is no other outright bet that really makes any sense.

The Crowne Plaza at Colonial is the complete opposite. If I could back 10 players and still have it make financial sense I would. I like, in order, Streelman, Hoffman, Stenson, De Jonge, Kirk, Spieth, Tringale, Matt Jones, Stadler and Schwartzel.

Colonial is a ball strikers dream. Just ask the greatest of all, Ben Hogan, a five time winner. Well, obviously that is a little tricky now. Maybe just read a quote or two! You have to work it both ways, it is pretty tight, the fairways and greens are tough to find and it can get windy. It is only 40 minutes from last week’s event and we saw how windy it got there. It can play over 7200 yards and played to an average of over 71 last year, which does not sound too high, but it is a par 70.

Kevin Streelman really looks like a good fit round here. He moves it both ways at will and ranks 11th in ball striking. Since he won earlier this year at Tampa he looks like a different player. He has the swagger and belief of a big name player. This is backed up by a run of 3, 6, 2 in his last 3 starts. I do fancy him to go well here despite a 10th place finish his best at the venue. It’s just 30/1 does not seem right. The facts, the numbers etc suggest it is the right price but it just feels too short to me. There appears to be better value elsewhere.

Hoffman put a very good run in for us last week. For me he has the best swing on tour and is underrated. 40/1 about him is not overly generous but a guy who has 3 top 10’s in his last 5 starts should not be underestimated. He missed this event for a couple of years but finished 13th last year. It should therefore suit him. I would like to be with him again this week but the fact he ranks 90th in driving accuracy is a worry and is therefore passed over.

Henrik Stenson has been coming closer and closer this year and looked very impressive at The Players Championship. I am not sure if his heart was really in it last week in Bulgaria but what I do know is he ranks number 1 in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation which is key around here. I am hoping the journey back to Europe has not taken too much out of him but for him to miss Wentworth for this (his 4th start at Colonial) suggest he likes it and wants to go well. He could have missed this event for a lot of reasons. His form of 27,44,mc is not standout here but he is a much more accurate and consistent player than he has been the last few years. 33/1 is not huge but well worth a go.

Brendon De Jonge is playing some very tidy golf at the moment. He has 4 top 15’s in 9 starts and ranks 9th in ball striking. 33rd in driving accuracy and 16th in greens in regulation are a nice combination for this lay out. His course form of 59,56,51 is not great but I can see an improving trend! I think he looks nicely priced to go well at 66/1 (80/1 with Coral).

Chris Kirk is 50/1 and is the opposite of what one should be looking for here. He ranks 3rd in scrambling and 7th in putting. The strength of that combination should work on any course and a rank of 13th in scoring backs that up. He has made 10 cuts on the spin and has 4 top 25’s this season. He has finished 16th and 5th here the last 2 years and on the strength of that has to be included in the staking plan at 50/1.

I put a line through Spieth and Tringale as their recent form has gone a little cold and they have no real course form to speak of between them. Schwartzel was scrubbed as 14/1 is too short. That leaves me with two good value bets in Matt Jones at 200/1 and Kevin Stadler at 150/1. Jones has a 13th place to his name here in 2010 and is a good all round player. He ranks 6th in total driving and seems too big at 200/1. Stadler ranks 13th in ball striking, 13th in birdies and 6th in greens in regulation. 150/1 is worth a pop.

BMW PGA Championship

0.75 pts each way Marcus Fraser @ 100/1

Crowne Plaza Invitational

1.5 pts each way Henrik Stenson @ 33/1
1 pt each way Brendon De Jonge @ 66/1
1 pt each way Chris Kirk @ 50/1
0.5 pts each way Matt Jones @ 200/1
0.5 pts each way Kevin Stadler @ 150/1

2013 running total = -133.95 pts. This week’s investment 10.5 points. This weeks P&L = -10.5 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.