UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 March 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Matchplay, Puerto Rico Open, Kenya Open, Louisiana Open

WGC Matchplay - Outright In Running

2 points Dustin Johnson @ 15/8 (+3.75)




WGC Matchplay - 4th Round Matches

6 points Noren @ Evs to beat Koepka (+6)



WGC Matchplay - 3rd Round Matches

5 points Molinari to beat Noren @ 23/20 (Molinari withdrew before tee off)



WGC Matchplay - 2nd Round Matches

5 points McGirt to beat Grace @ 6/4 (+7.5)


WGC Matchplay - Outright


No Bet

Trying to pick an overall winner in this format is not the easiest challenge and probably not best advised. If I was forced to put a couple forward I would suggest Rory @ 15/2 or Hatton @ 33/1, but the outright market is not for me.

WGC Matchplay - 1st Round Matches

5 points Vegas to beat Watson @ 6/5 (-5)

8 points Haas to beat Knox @ 11/10 (-8)

I rarely back odds on over 18 holes, everyone is capable of shooting 68 on any given day and if they do they are tough to beat, especially in this format. There is sure to be plenty of shocks and it is hard not to get caught by a few during the week. Odds on losers quickly cut into profit. Taking odds against (the outsiders) will guarantee profit with a 50%+ strike rate. That sounds more attainable over the course of the week. There may be a couple throughout the week that even at odds on look value. Like the Mickelson V Si Woo Kim match in round 1. Kim has been horrible this year and 4/9 about Mickelson does look like buying money. Wrapping the odds on chances up in multiples does offer some value and moreover limits the level of risk and total investment, but you still have to be right 75-80% of the time to sneak a profit.

If you do want a multiple or an accumulator on the first day here are the games I would recommend with my level of confidence. I do think Rory beats Kjelsden (14 points @ 2/7), Moore beats Ikeda (6 points @ 8/15), Kisner beats Koepka (14 points @ 7/10), Fleetwood beats Zach Johnson (5 points @ 4/6), Dustin beats Simpson (9 points @ 2/5), Mickelson beats Si Woo Kim (26 points @ 4/9), Hatton beats Howell (6 points @ 4/7), Bello beats Wang (5 points @ 4/7), Garcia beats Lowry (5 points @ 8/15) and Rahm beats Chappell (11 points @ 1/2)

Do with that what you will!


Puerto Rico Open - Outright


4 points win Peter Uihiein @ 25/1 (-4)

0.8 points each way Sam Saunders @ 125/1 (+13.07)

0.33 points each way Kurt Kitayama @ 300/1 (-0.66)


Puerto Rico Open - 72 Hole Matches


8 points Bozzelli to beat Olesen @ 20/23 (+6.96)

6 points Cejka to bt Spaun @ 20/21 (-6)

5 points Stallings to beat Hadley @ 10/11 (-5)

6 points Uihlein to beat Matt Jones @ 10/11 (+5.45)


Chitimacha Louisiana Open - Outright

No bet

There are a few that can be backed in this field. The very much in form Andrew Putnam should go well again @ 10/1, Keith Mitchell who has had a great few weeks will be refreshed, motivated and ready to go again @ 28/1 but did not show much pre Valspar. Ted Potter Jnr and Corey Conners are decent bets at around 33/1 but there is not a lot of value around, with a few good players going to Puerto Rico instead.


Kenya Open - Outright

0.8 points each way Mattieu Fenasse @ 125/1 (-1.6)

1.52 points each way Oliver Lindell @ 66/1 (-3.04)

1.52 points each way Julien Brun @ 66/1 (-3.04)

I also like Marcus Kinhult @ 28/1 and Oscar Lengden @ 40/1 who have both been in good form on mini tours heading into this, the first Challenge Tour event of the year, but I would have wanted to see a little bit bigger, especially about Marcus.


Specials

0.2 each way point yankee (-4.4)

Oscar Lengden @ 40/1 (Kenya Open)
Andrew Putnam @ 10/1 (Louisiana Open)
Peter Uihlein @ 25/1 (Puerto Rico Open)
Rory McIlroy @ 15/2 (WGC Matchplay)





(Already Advised)
Antepost 2017 Season
4 points Rory McIlroy to win a Major in 2017 @ 2/1 (Bet Victor)



This week's P&L = +1.99
This week’s investment = 74.34 points

This week's Outright P&L = +0.73
This weeks's Outright Investment = 13.94 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +1.26
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 60.4 points



2017 Total P&L = +50.3
2017 Total Investment =  588.1 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -12.59
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 204.84 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +62.89
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 382.4 points


2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.



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