UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 June 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW International Open and Travelers Championship

US Open conclusions - Phil Mickelson is too inconsistent to be backed at short prices, Rory is awesome but should never ever be backed at 6/1 for The Open (10/11 BBC Sports Personality of the year would be a better bet), Westwood is an each way major runner going off at win only prices, not tipping Jason Day (as I was so close to) was a big mistake and we were unlucky with Kuchar and Simpson. Kuchar and Simpson were in perfect spots going into Sunday to get a place. Both playing well but both had flat Sundays. Flat Sundays mean no paydays and we lost all 12 points invested. Our 2011 total had another chunk taken out of it. We are now only 127.8 points in front, or £1278 to a £10 stake.

So onto to this weeks golf. In Germany I think that you have to go low. It is a 7000 yard resort course with a few tweaks. Looking through the field the most obvious guy who naturally goes low is Dustin Johnson. When his putter is luke warm he can tear any course apart. So if he can get a hot putter and continue his incredibly long yet remarkably straight driving he has to be the man to beat. Inexperienced players have good records here so the fact it is his debut does not put me off. Kaymer is the favourite but he is still switching around caddies and working on his ‘new’ swing so I think he is there to be taken on. The other two I like are Romain Wattel and David Dixon. Wattel is class and fits the profile of recent winners. 100/1 is a fair price. Dixon almost got the nod last week but was too short. 200/1 seems like a good price for a man with a lot of game and finding his form.

In the States this week they are at TPC River Highlands. The course is 6841 yards short and is a par 70. It is the third shortest on tour. There will be a huge focus on putting. The scoring goes deep but the greens are undulating. Therefore accurate approach play well be rewarded too. My shortlist consists of Webb Simpson 28/1, Toms 25/1, Couch 100/1, Watney 16/1 and Mahan 14/1. I am going to discount Watney. He is awesome but not quiet on top of his game and therefore too short. Toms 25/1 and Simpson 28/1. Tough call to split them. Both in form (Simpson more recent good form) and both have games to compete here. Yet 28/1 feels short about Simpson and 25/1 a nice price for Toms. I have to keep them both in. Simpson may appear a little short but after finishing 14th on his major debut and with his remarkable stats he has to be a bet. He is 7th in birdie average and 11th in ball striking. He will be hungry for his first win here.

Hunter Mahan is a tricky one here. He won here in 2007, finished 2nd twice and fourth. He missed the cut last week but otherwise has good form. 14/1 is just too short for me. I would rather stick Chris Couch in. He knows how to make birdies and with last week off he should be fresh. 100/1 is a good price.

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BMW International Open

3 pts win Dustin Johnson @ 12/1
1pt each way Romain Wattel @ 100/1
0.5pts each way David Dixon @ 200/1

Travelers Championship

1 pt each way David Toms @ 25/1
1pt each way Webb Simpson @ 28/1
1 pt each way Chris Couch @ 100/1

2011 running total +127.8 pts This weeks investment 12 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.