UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 January 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Farmers Insurance Open

I am going to keep this pretty short as I can’t get the correct stat numbers on the PGA Tour website. They look ok but they do not add up and therefore my rankings can’t be compiled correctly. I am also in the middle of a tournament here is Spain.

So instead of discussing will or won’t Woods win, lets just decide who is a good bet. Woods has won here 7 times, I still would not be overly tempted by the 5/2 on offer. But why has he won 7 times? Well, he has dominated the par 5’s. In those 7 events he is 77 under for them. Last year he ranked 2nd in distance, 17th in accuracy, 28th in strokes gained putting, 34th in greens in regulation, 49th in proximity and 42nd in scrambling. 2 eagles helped the below average stats. I say below average, I mean below Woods’ average!

Stat leaders were driving distance - Robert Garrigus (finished 6th), driving accuracy - Bryce Molder (68th), putting - Josh Teater (2nd), greens in regulation - CH3 (9th), proximity - Brandt Snedeker, scrambling - Nick Watney (4th) and Brandt Snedeker (2nd).

So, it appears if you can dominate any stats category that isn’t driving accuracy you will have a chance. But based on the Woods facts and the form of big hitters on the course certainly suggest length and milking the par 5’s have to be the two big keys. The rest, obviously, all helps.

Therefore the player I like is Keegan Bradley. He doesn’t have the course form that some of the other market leaders boast but two top 20’s in three starts isn’t too bad. But this should suit. He ranks 1st in total driving this year, which is no fluke, he ranked 2nd last year in the same category. He also ranked 8th in par 5 performance in 2012 and in 2013, 3rd. Two added bonus’, he ranks 5th in putting and 10th in scoring this season. 33/1 is worth a play.

Farmers Insurance Open

1 point each way Keegan Bradley @ 33/1

(Already Advised)

Qatar Masters

0.5 points each way Jorge Campillo @ 150/1
0.5 points each way Ricardo Gonzalez @ 125/1

Special Bet

0.25 points each way Ricardo Gonzalez to be first round leader @ 80/1


2014 running total = -12.5 points. This week’s investment 4.5 points. This weeks P&L = -4.5 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'
Comments

Qatar Masters

Wednesday start this week in Europe and with the PGA Tour website throwing out some funny numbers on the stats side of things, I will do the picks in two parts this week. Last week was one to forget about. I do not like making so many picks and out of those picks only two got even close to contention. Very disappointing.

The Qatar Masters is the event we are looking at here. 7400 yards long, susceptible to a strong desert wind and known as the toughest test of the desert swing. Ball strikers do well here but it is a tough market. There are plenty at short prices that could go well, but apart from Garcia, they all have huge question marks hanging over them.

I am very close to not being a player here. I am also very tempted to have a decent bet on Garcia. Like I said, there are not too many question marks. He has very sound recent form and has a formidable record on the course. 7,24,9,5,2 over the last 5 years. In his last 5 events he has finished 11,4,2,1,19. The 19th last week was more impressive than it looks on paper as he shot a good number just to make the cut. He climbed up a long way over the weekend. The only real question mark about him is how much are the guys in behind him going to improve.

There is no doubt players like Stenson are going to come on for a run and a week’s practice. There is also the slight niggle that Garcia doesn’t win as freely as one would like in sanctioned events. That is a concern at 15/2. He is the most likely, for sure, but after a tough week last week I don’t feel confident about going in heavily after a short one so soon. Perhaps if we had profit to play with it would be different.

Behind him in the market there are plenty of names to make arguments for and against, but I am going to go a bit further through the market and try and sniff out some value. Brandon Stone, our old friend, showed a bit last week finishing 19th. IMG are certainly giving him a chance! At 200/1 there is a bit of value there. The two young Americans, Koepka and Uihlein, are not forgiven after their performances last week and at shorter prices are left alone. Jaquelin has some appeal at 100/1. He likes a tough track and played well in SA two weeks ago but his course form leaves a little to be desired.

The two that are worth an investment in my opinion are Jorge Campillo and Ricardo Gonzalez.

Campillo is a young Spaniard who had a very impressive college record in the States. This week you can back him at 150/1 and, for an ultra consistent player, who finished 2nd two starts ago in the Nelson Mandella, offers some decent value. He missed the cut here last year on his debut but finished 9th in Abu Dhabi last year and played solid last week so this style of golf isn’t unfamiliar to him.

Ricardo Gonzalez will like this place, not only because of the yardage, 7400 yards, ideal for the big hitting Argie, but also for his course record. He missed the cut last year but finished 9,15,5 in the three editions previous. 125/1 is a fair price, even for a hit and miss type player. He had a disappointing weekend last week, shooting 74,73 after a second round 66, finishing 31st. Still it was his first event of the year and he played some great stuff in the second half of last season. Definitely worth an interest.


Qatar Masters

0.5 points each way Jorge Campillo @ 150/1
0.5 points each way Ricardo Gonzalez @ 125/1

Special Bet

0.25 points each way Ricardo Gonzalez to be first round leader @ 80/1



2014 running total = -12.5 points. This week’s investment 2.5 points. This weeks P&L =

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'


Comments