UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 December 2010 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Season and Special Bets for 2011

2010 was a bumper year for European golf. Westwood finished the year as world number one, McDowell and Kaymer are Major winners, a Ryder Cup victory and the emergence of three world class Italian golfers. Was it a freak year for the European players or is this a pattern that is going to continue in 2011? 7 out of the top 11 players in the world right now are European, incredible.

Certainly looking through the prices the bookies like the European’s chances of a repeat. They are definitely not underestimating Westwood. He is as short as 3/1 to win the Race to Dubai. This is too short for me. Westwood, like a lot of the European golfers are inevitably going to be more focused on Majors and this normally means extended period of times in the States and a reduced European schedule. One player who is bucking this trend is Rory Mcilroy. He has given up his PGA Tour membership and will be focusing more on Europe after and up and down 2010, over all I think he will see it as a below average campaign. 9/2 for the Race to Dubai is too short for me. A similar story with Kaymer. In my view I think he is a serial over-achiever. I am not saying this as a criticism, in fact, the complete opposite, over-achieving is a good thing, wish I could do it, but it does mean 9/2 for me is completely unbackable.

The one that catches my eye is Edoardo Molanari. His brother, Francesco established himself as a world class player last year, contending almost every time he teed it up and put in a great performance to win the HSBC Champions and the Ryder Cup. This has somewhat over shadowed what Edoardo has achieved, which is incredible. He has true belief and an impressive work ethic. He can emulate Kaymer’s rise to power. Edoardo is 18th in the world, meaning he is locked in to the top 50 for the year and will play all the Majors and World Championship events. This gives him tremendous earning potential and he will be motivated to get out of the shadow of his brother and the impressive Matteo Manassero. He represents good value at 50/1.

He won three times on the Challenge Tour, the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan, the World Cup of Golf and the Scottish Open. He seemed to run out of steam a little towards the end of 2010, but one cannot blame him for that. He does not fear winning and after a short winter break he should be fresh and ready to go with another hectic campaign.

There is also a market for top Italian in the Race to Dubai. They go 9/4 Edoardo in what is really a four runner race. I like that price too considering he will probably play more than his brother and Manassero is not exempt for all the Majors and World Championship events.

On the other side of Atlantic Tiger Woods is odds on to win the money list. Probably fair enough as if he regains form anywhere near his best the 10/11 available may seem a pretty big price. Too much of a risk for me at odds on.

The one I like the look of is Ernie Els. He finished 3rd in 2010 behind Kuchar and Furyk. His schedule in 2011 is going to be a lot more US based. He is in good form having just shot 25 under to win the South African Open. His early schedule this year includes the Mercedes Championship in Hawaii, where he has won before shooting 32under. 10/1 to finish in the top 3 seems like decent value for the big South African.

So these are my first three selections for the 2011 season.

Season Specials

1pt each way Edoardo Molanari @ 50/1 Race to Dubai (1/4 1-4)
2pts Edoardo Molanari @ 9/4 To be top Italian in the Race to Dubai
2 pts each way Ernie Els @ 40/1 US Money List (1/4 1-3)


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.


Comments

2010 - A nicely profitable year

2010 was a good year for the betting page. Despite the two disappointing final weeks where we did not show a return. Tim Clark was closest. He finished 6th in the South African Open, one place out of a nice return. He played solid all week but maybe did not make enough birdies in an event where scoring went really deep. Jbe Kruger made three big mistakes during the week, two doubles and a treble. When the scoring goes low you cannot get away with mistakes like that and he finished middle of the pack. A loss of 10 points brought our running profit down to 189.33 points or £1893.30 to a £10 stake. Still a tidy return for the year.

It is a tough target to beat in 2011 but I have a few antepost gems lined up to get us off to a flying start. They will be revealed soon. Stay posted or alternatively send me an email at
jason@jasonkellygolf.com and I will email them to you and you won’t miss a thing.

Comments