UA-33754892-1 Archives for 19 August 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Johnnie Walker Championship and The Barclays

It appears sitting out of the Wyndham was a good idea. Dufner went well but ultimately we would not have shown a return. We stay at +211.23 points for the year.

This week there are two interesting events. The Johnnie Walker at Gleneagles, Scotland and The Barclays at Bethpage, New York. The Johnnie Walker is the first European event for a while on what appears to be an ever weakening schedule. I think there are two reason that make this event a little more interesting than a normal European Tour event. Firstly is the obvious Ryder Cup qualifying race. Colsaerts can qualify with a top 2 finish whilst others will be looking to impress. But really players like Lynn and Cabrera-Bello have no chance of making the team unless they do something very special. Lynn’s decision not to play the Wyndham last week was astonishing and foolish and will inevitably cost him his spot. If Colsaerts does not automatically qualify I think he will get a pick along with Poulter. Garica knocked Poulter out of the automatic spots last week. Harrington is the only other name in the mix in my view. If Colsaerts does qualify he will knock Kaymer out and I guess with his recent form there is no guarantee of a place for him but we will see.

So
Nicholas Colsaerts will be trying and is showing great form. The course will suit as it is lenient from the tee but there is no real advantage for his power. The course only measures a touch over 7000 yards. The big negative about the Belgium is he only finished playing in the States late last night after a pretty hectic schedule. I was surprised to hear he was at Gleneagles hitting balls today. He has to be tired and at 14/1 he can’t really be considered. Apart from him I guess Francesco Molinari has a shout but 11/1 is really tight.

The second reason I think the event carries a little more spice is the guys struggling to keep their playing rights. The players who have struggled for form this season have had a decent break to work on their games and find something to revive their form. This event starts a run of four that will decide a lot of players futures. Expect a few to get on a run. The problem is it is tough to pick them in week one. They are worth watching this week to see what they have got. Players like Steve Webster who have tons of ability but have struggled. He is 132nd in the Race to Dubai and needs to get moving. He has put great performances in at this time of year before to keep his card. But I am surprised to see him at just 125/1 considering his form.

Having said all of this there are only two players who interest me this week in Scotland and they are
Gregory Havret and Johan Edfors. Both have had very poor seasons by their standards. Edfors best finish this year is 16th way back in February in Dubai and Havret a 10th in the Nordea Masters at the start of June. However, both are determined, hard workers and they may well come out fresh and ready for this. Neither have won for a few years, Edors in 2006 and Havret in 2008 but they both have good records in Scotland. Havret won this in 2008 at Gleneagles and the Scottish Open the year before and Edfors won the Scottish Open in 2006. Both their stats suggest that is only really their putting that is stopping them performing at their peak and both will have worked hard on this in their month off. I think both Havret at 80/1 and Edfors at 125/1 are worth a small interest this week.

The Barclays is the first of the Playoff events and played around the awesome Bethpage Black. This beast was not able to really show its teeth in the 2009 US Open as rain took the sting out of the course. The course could measure up to 7468 yards long and has tiny greens. The greens are tough but at an anticipated 12 on the stimp meter they aren’t US Open quick. So really ball striking will be key this week as there will be a lot of drivers from tees with small greens which will be tough to hold from the rough and hard to find with longer irons.

I would expect to see all the usual suspects in contention. Good courses bring out good players. I like
Justin Rose 25/1, Bubba Watson 25/1, John Senden 150/1, Rory Mcilroy 8/1, Keegan Bradley 30/1, Bo Van Pelt 50/1, Matt Kuchar 45/1, Tiger Woods 8/1, Seung-Yul Noh 100/1 and Brendon De Jonge 150/1

I have to take
Rose and Bubba out straight away. They should both enjoy the lay out but are too short to back. Kuchar is interesting but not putting as well as last year when he contended almost every week. Rory and Woods both have huge shouts but the fact they play together will probably not help them and they are both pretty short prices. That leaves us with five.

Keegan Bradley is hard to resist. His recent win at Firestone and tied 3rd finish in his USPGA defence were hugely impressive and proves how tough, long courses really suit his game. This is perfect for him. We backed him at 66/1 when he won at Firestone, turned down the 40/1 at Kiawah and this week he opened up at 40/1. I thought that was a fair price and would have backed him but others have clearly had the same idea and backed him into a best price of 30/1. That is too short for me and regrettably have to leave him alone.

I think
John Senden is a big price for this. He finished 10th in the US Open and plays demanding courses well. He ranks 16th in total driving, 26th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens which is a great fit for Bethpage. Even if you forget about those stats the fact he is 19th in scoring average having missed most the low scoring events suggests he should not be 150/1. He is worth a go this week.

Bo Van Pelt is another who has attracted some money. 66/1 into 50/1. 66/1 was big, 50/1 about fair. He ranks 5th in total driving, 24th in greens and 9th in putting. Awesome key stats. His only weakness it appears is getting it done on Sundays. We know how frustrating he is as we are on him almost every week but we have to keep the faith. Anyone who puts themselves in the mix as much as he does has to get it done sooner or later. 50/1 is worth another modest investment.

Seung-Yul Noh is hitting some great form and his stats are heating up. I said in my preview at the start of this year that Noh would be getting backed a lot this year as I believe he really is the real deal but the US Tour rookie has taken a little time to settle in. His putting has really improved and that combined with 28th in greens in regulation can make him a contender here. He has only missed 4 cuts in 25 starts but has only hit double figures under par once. He will like this tough test, he always played the harder venues well in Asia and Europe. Again he opened 125/1 which looked good but lets have an interest in the general 100/1 available. It’s not the best price but could look big come Sunday.

Finally I like the look of
Brendon De Jonge this week. The big Zimbabwean has made 22 out of 25 cuts and ranks 8th in greens in regulation. He finished 14th last week without beating the field average in strokes gained putting in any round but he never goes particularly well on Bermuda. He will prefer the bent grass this week. His laid back demeanour suggest he will deal with the rowdy New York crowds better than some and he can put a run in at a decent price.

An interesting week of tipping. Six players go into the staking plan with an average price of 109/1! Still, lose small win big is not the worst way to play!

JK

Johnnie Walker Championship

1 pt each way Gregory Havret @ 80/1
0.5 pts each way Johan Edfors @ 125/1

The Barclays

1 pt each way John Senden @ 150/1
1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 50/1

0.5 pts each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 100/1
0.5 pts each way Brendon De Jonge @ 150/1

2012 running total +211.23 points. This weeks investment 10 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf





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