UA-33754892-1 Archives for 18 September 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Austrian Open and The Tour Championship

Bo Van Pelt was a risky pick and turned out to be an embarrassing one. He just scrapped away at the bottom of the leaderboard all week. David Toms played some good stuff to post another top 10. He holed some nice putts but missed too many short ones and had an uncharacteristic amount of bogies. Mahan continued to play the inconsistent golf he has played for much of the year. Some great stuff but littered with mistakes. He threatens to play great every week but is getting expensive to follow. We lost all 10 points invested. We now stand at 188.04 points in profit, or £1880.40 to a £10 stake, for the year.

This week is a bit of a non event in Europe, the Austrian Open. Harrington is the 12/1 favourite. He is playing in the hope of qualifying for the Race to Dubai. He is a risky favourite and at that price I would be happy to take him on. I played the course, Diamond Golf, last year and it is diplomatically described as ‘OK’ but with recent wet weather it might not be in the best shape. This year they have added some new tees and I am not sure it will be the fairest test.

I am going to put my neck out and have a tentative bet on Daniel Gaunt for an interest. When he gets the taste he is an impressive player but very streaky. He relies on confidence, like most golfers, but has not had the best of years this year after an awesome 2010. If he gets off to a good start he can build on that momentum and at 175/1 he is worth the risk. Jason Barnes is another who warrants a second look. He has finished in the top 25 of every event he has played this year and has a win and two second places to his name. He is confident, a great ball striker and is a nice price at 200/1. I appreciate this is a big step up even in a weak field but he may just spring a surprise. 7/1 for a top 20 finish is an ok price for a more realistic outcome. 20/1 for a top 10 is good too but I think I will stick the traditional top 5 to small stakes with a little gamble on a top 20.

The price I can’t believe is 33/1 about Tom Lewis. I laughed out loud when I saw that. Granted he has serious potential and looks to have a bright future but 33/1? Maybe he will win but that will still be a mind-bogglingly bad price. What makes him a 33/1 chance? He lost in a playoff for the New South Wales Golf Open, a professional event which was on the Von Nida mini tour until 2009. It is seen as a small event on the Australian circuit. He won the St Andrews links which is a great achievement but all his best form is on links courses Lewis had a poor US Amateur, did not fulfil expectations at the Walker Cup and is not in the same league as players like Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay has 6 top 30 finishes in professional events and shot 60 in the Travelers Championship. He lost in the final of the US Amateur (where he beat Lewis in the third round) and finished 21st in the US Open. Lewis finished 30th in The Open. The reason I throw out these stats is Cantlay will not be a 33/1 chance when he makes his professional debut, even in a weak US Tour event. He is more experienced and achieved more than Lewis. Tommy Fleetwood is another. He has form of 2nd, 1st and 28th in his last three starts on the Challenge Tour. The win was in their biggest event in Kazakhstan and he leads the Order of Merit. He is 40/1. How is Lewis shorter than him? Don’t be sucked into the hype just because of one good round at The Open. He has no decent recent form on anything except links courses. 33/1 is a sucker price.

Now to the main event. The Tour Championship and the final of the Fedex Cup with $10 million up for grabs. My ‘shortlist,' which is a third of the line up in this 30 man field compromises of Simpson, Scott, Toms, Watney, Kuchar, Mahan, Rose, Donald, Striker and Day.

The course is East Lake, a Bendelow course which has been redesigned by Donald Ross. It is best known for being Bobby Jones’ home course. It has hosted 13 Tour Championships. It normally plays long with penal rough but this year Atlanta has experienced very dry weather and they have struggled to get the rough up. It is just 2 1/4 inches this week. This takes the emphasis away from straight hitters and more onto the greens in reg guys. Bermuda greens, which were introduced in 2007, have toughened the course up. Since they were introduced -9 has been the best winning score.

Ok, I have just seen Stricker is to have an MRI scan on his neck and has had a cortisone injection to enable him to play this week. That can’t be ideal. Put a line through that name. I like Donald this week. The second best putter on tour, 31st in greens in regulation and 2nd here last year. He is coming off a good 4th last week after a poor first round. But 13/2, that is short even in a limited field. He has not won a strokeplay event in the States this year and I think this course suits others more.

Rose played well last week. Anytime you are 43/43 from 6ft in you are going to be hard to beat. He is 20/1 for a repeat here. He is obviously playing well enough but has been quiet for much of the year. Also he does not have the best record on bermuda greens or backing up good weeks. Rose dismissed. Kuchar has not been the same player the last few weeks. He has five straight top 25’s but has not been near the top of a leaderboard for a while. He shot 78 in the third round last week which is not like him. He was 25th out of 30 here last year. 20/1 is not big enough.

Scott has the perfect game for East Lake. He won here in 2006 too. However I still think his putting is not up to much and he has not finished inside the top 25 in his last two starts at East Lake. The temptation is there as he has finished in top ten in 3 of his last 5 but 16/1 just is not big enough. Simpson has had a great year and what a way this would be to top it off. 94th on the money list in 2010 and leading it in 2011. A remarkable achievement. It is his first start at East Lake and after four straight top tens he will be under enormous pressure. Not for me this week at 12/1.

I do like Jason Day. Last few weeks I have stayed away as he is not the straightest driver. But he is long and he leads the par 3 scoring stats. This sets up well for him and he has been knocking on the door of a big win all year. 18/1 is a fair price for the Aussie.

Nick Watney is an interesting one this week. He closed with a bogey free 67 last week and was in serious form at East Lake last year. He ended up finishing 4th but played his third round back 9 and 4th round front 9 in 58 (-12)! 16/1 is a fair price and worth an interest.

Like I said earlier, Hunter Mahan is becoming expensive to follow. I am tempted to pass on him but I look at his stats and see 18th in greens, 14th in putting and 6th in birdie average. If he can keep it a bit tighter he can win this week and we need to recoup. I am giving him another chance. As I will with David Toms. 25/1 is a good price about the man who is third in greens in regulation. He has a great record in Atlanta and finished 13th here in 2009.

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The Tour Championships

3pts win Jason Day @ 18/1
1.5 pts win Hunter Mahan @ 30/1
2 pts Nick Watney @ 16/1
1 pt each way David Toms @ 25/1

Austrian Open

0.5 pts each way Daniel Gaunt @ 175/1
0.5 pts each way Jason Barnes @ 200/1

Special Bets

2 pts Jason Barnes to finish top 20 @ 7/1

2011 running total +188.04 pts This weeks investment 14 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.