UA-33754892-1 Archives for 18 October 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

UBS Hong Kong Open and Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Last week was typical of how this season has gone. Brendan Steele leads for 65 holes of the tournament, at which point he has a one shot lead and is 4 shots clear of 6th with 7 holes to play. At worst, surely a place? Nope, 5 bogies in the last 7 sees him finish in a tie for 17th and zero return. Incredible. On the flip side Anthony Wall did the reverse. He loitered around 20th place for most of the week before finishing well to grab 3rd, as those near the top faltered, bar the ultra impressive Andy Sullivan.

It looked like it could have been a bumper week, instead we took home a measly 1.25 point profit. It didn't bite into our deficit too far! We are still a long way behind on the year at -155.06 points. It is a horrible bottom line, but, with the selections showing an average finishing position of 21st it doesn't quite tell the full story. Anyway, on to this week - we are due a winner!

UBS Hong Kong Open

This looks like a great chance to take on two shortly priced favourites. Rose at 6/1 and Dustin Johnson at 9/1 appear easy to oppose. They have not played here before and it is not a power hitters course, it is more about strategy and straight hitting, hence Jimenez, Jaidee, Fraser, Colomo, Que, Chowrasia etc go well here. I have little interest in either of them at those prices. There will be some decent value taking them on in their 3 balls, 18 hole and 72 hole matches. I would rather take them on in round one as they will get more used to the course as the week goes on.

I am going to back Adilson Da Silva. His record here is average (71-30-35) but he has 3 top 11s in his last 4 outings. (8-3-51-11). The course sets up well for him and he is playing well, 100/1 is a fair price.

Chris Paisley comes here in need of a solid week. He currently sits 108th in the Race to Dubai. He played well in spurts last week on a week where the pressure was on. He finished 45th in the end but this course sets up much better for him. He finished 39th here two years ago on his only start but I think he can have a big week and at 250/1 looks worth taking a chance with.

The best bet of the week in Hong Kong, is in actual fact, despite what I said earlier, a long hitter. The Fin Roope Kakko averages 300+ yards from the tee but seems to go well on short courses. He was involved towards the end in Italy, finished 5th in the Czech Masters and won in Madeira. From his 8 events he has played on Tour this year he has won €186,388. His last two weeks have not been so good but he finished 24th here two years ago and I think he is worth a go at 150/1.

0.66 points each way Roope Kakko @ 150/1 (-1.32 points)
1 point each way Adilson Da Silva @ 100/1 (-2 points)
0.44 points each way Chris Paisley @ 250/1 (-0.88 points)

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Las Vegas has attracted a decent line up for this year's edition of the Shriners at TPC Summerlin. Scoring always goes deep here and with the forecast set to be cool with no wind there seems no reason why they won't rip the heart out of it again.

Fowler leads the betting and rightly so, he has finished 12th or better in 5 of his last 7 starts. He has only played here twice and finished 7th on debut 6 years ago and 22nd the following year. I wouldn't blame anyone for backing him but I think 10/1 is a little tight.

I like Jason Bohn at 40/1 for this. He finished 3rd last week which is his 3rd top 10 in his last 5 starts, the 42 year old appears to be in the form of his life. Which is encouraging as when he wasn't in this type of form he managed to notch up form figures of 14-49-8-2-18 here. 40/1 seems very fair and he appears to be worth a decent bet at that price. He led greens in regulation last week so should have plenty of looks for birdies again this week.

Alongside him I am going to back Hudson Swafford at 100/1. He has always threatened to do better than he has so far on Tour and after a long break he came back with a solid 17th last week. He has a 30th and an 18th in two starts here. He gained over 9 shots putting last week, a week we identified as a tournament where good putting is not really rewarded (Bae won last year losing with a negative strokes gained putting total and this year the two players in the playoff were again in possession of a negative strokes gained putting total). There is more of a reward this week and lets hope he continues to make them.

2.5 points each way Jason Bohn @ 40/1 (+16.67 points)
1 point each way Hudson Swafford @ 100/1 (-2 points)

2015 running total =  -155.06 points. This week’s investment 11.2 points. This weeks P&L = +10.47

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.