UA-33754892-1 Archives for 18 November 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Hong Kong Open, World Cup of Golf, Showdown at Shadow Creek

Hong Kong Open (in running after round 3)

Rai should get this done with a 6 shot lead and not many hit it straighter than Rai. The course sets up beautifully for him but he has never won on Tour. There’s a serious pack of dogs hunting him down in the shape of Fleetwood, Garcia and Fitzpatrick. Again, Rai should probably get this done but 13/2 Fleetwood (I would be 11/2) and Garcia 18/1 (I would be 7/1) look the ones to ask him the questions if it does go wrong for him.

To Win

0.25 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 13/2 (-0.25)
0.4 points Sergio Garcia @ 19 (-0.4)

World Cup of Golf (In running after round 3)

World Cup of golf looks over. 5 shots is a lot to overturn, but if there’s a chance then foursomes gives that opportunity. Australia were very poor on the front 9 in bad weather in the first round of foursomes, but came back strongly. I fancy them to make a charge and I would be 9/1 Aussie and not 12/1, but I think Belgium should probably get it done.

To Win

0.25 points Australia @ 13 (-0.25)

World Cup of Golf (In running after round 2)

In the World Cup of Golf I think England and topping up a little on Malaysia is the way to go. England have played conservatively and slowly look to be finding their stride. Poulter looks sharp and they seem well suited to both the foursomes and four-ball format. Malaysia hung on well in foursomes, they are well suited to four-ball so I expect them to trade at least shorter tomorrow but may well find themselves in with a chance of winning at a decent price.

To Win

0.25 points Malaysia @ 51 (-0.25)
0.25 points England @ 6 (-0.25)

Hong Kong Open (in running after round 1)

There’s still not a huge amount to be done in Hong Kong.

Fleetwood could be backed but I think he is a risk with fatigue.

Jack Singh-Brar was very impressive on the Challenge Tour last year, he is worth a small play at 33/1 to go well even at a level up here. He is a good young player and underrated in this market.

To Win

0.4 points Jack Singh Brar @ 34 (-0.4)

World Cup of Golf (In running after round 1)

Malaysia look worth a small interest in the World Cup of Golf. 50/1 a 25/1 chance. 70 on the machine.

To Win

0.25 points Malaysia @ 51 (-0.25)

Hong Kong Open

In Hong Kong you could back Tommy Fleetwood again. It is a great course for him that rewards straight hitting over power. His putter went ice cold last weekend and he must be knackered. I won’t be backing him at the price. I am going to leave Hong Kong alone at this stage.

To Win

No bets

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

0.5 points Matthew Fitzpatrick to beat Bjerregaard @ 1.80 (+0.4)
2 points Victor Perez to beat Sordet @ 1.80 (+1.6)

World Cup of Golf

In the World Cup of Golf there is no real value. As a gut shot I think New Zealand may be worth some spare change at 66/1. Fox I really rate, Brown is steady but unspectacular. They’re too big at 66/1, I would be nearer 28/1. It is a speculative value play.

To Win

0.25 points New Zealand @ 67 (-0.25)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

No bets

Showdown at Shadow Creek

In ’The Match’, the 18 hole shootout in Las Vegas for $9m between Woods and Mickelson I think Mickelson is the value. There are going to be loads of side bets and banter. I fancy Mickelson will handle this intrusion better than Woods, Mickelson is a serious gambler in practice rounds etc. I fancy him to beat Woods. They bet 1.44 Woods and 2.75 Mickelson with no tie. I would be 1.88 and 2.14 (true price). Mickelson can afford the occasional mistake and will have played Shadow Creek many more times than Woods.

To Win

1 point Phil Mickelson to beat Tiger Woods @ 2.75 (+2.75)

This week's P&L = +2.45
This week’s investment = 3.75 points

This week's Outright P&L = -0.25
This weeks's Outright Investment = 0.25 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +2.7
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 5.55 points

2018 Total P&L =  -87.29 points

2018 Total Investment = 1897.37 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
-16.97 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 898.04 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -70.62 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 1003.72 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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I rate my picks as 0.25 to 2.5 units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • 2.5 units - 2.5% of bankroll