UA-33754892-1 Archives for 18 May 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW PGA Championship and Crowne Plaza Invitiational

Dustin Johnson made a late Sunday rally to get within a shot of being placed in the Byron Nelson, unfortunately that doesn’t get us paid and we lost the 5.5 points invested. We are now 15.6 points down for the year, but we have some great events coming up over the next few weeks. The season really is in full swing.

Lets look at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth first. Everyone knows the new West course at Wentworth is tough. It can play long, the wind can swirl and there are gaping, deep bunkers waiting everywhere for an errant shot. On the old West course, good, accurate drivers of the ball were well rewarded as three time winner Monty proved. Greens in regulation guys like Els also had incredible records. However, things have changed. Although a number of the redesigns are good and the condition of the greens is slowly improving, there is still a question of how fair the test is.

You would look at the layout and imagine ball strikers should still flourish but this is not the case. Bunkers are in positions from the tee that punish good tee shots. Statistically, since the changes, scramblers like Luke Donald and Matteo Manassero have filled their boots. Another reason for this is when a course is difficult everyone is going to miss greens and it is a question of how well you can recover.

Therefore my main fancy to win the PGA is Justin Rose. We know him for his ball striking but this year, after his shoulder problems, he has spent more time on his short game and this is reflected in his scrambling stats. He ranks 12th this year on the PGA Tour. His ball striking has been coming back week on week. He has finished 8-94-14-8-5 and 4th last time out at Players Championship. Sawgrass form carries well to Wentworth. Therefore, we can back a player who we know has an awesome long game which is getting closer and has a short game that puts him in good stead already. 14/1 is not stunning value, but is a price we can put to use.

Elsewhere Paul Lawrie interests me. He has a good Wentworth record with two top 6’s in the last four starts and finished 15th on his return from injury. 80/1 doesn’t quite seem worth the risk however. I think Donald has an obvious chance but 14/1 is stingy, same with Westwood. I think Francesco Molinari is underrated at 25/1. He put a solid show in at the Players and has form of 5-50-33-4-6-24 and course form of 17-50-7-9 coming into this. Statistically he is still hitting loads of greens but his short game is improved. His coach and home club are within a few miles and he should be comfortable here, I expect him to go well at 25/1.

I also think Schwartzel is another who comes in under the radar. He has 3 top 20’s in his last four starts here and 5 top 20’s in his last 9 starts. He also ranks 24th in scrambling on the PGA Tour. 33/1 looks big to me. Quiros is another who looks big. 80/1 about the long hitter who is in decent form and has a good course record looks overly generous. He has 3 top 20’s in his last 5 starts at Wentworth and 3 top 15’s in his last 5 starts worldwide. He is playing a limited schedule due to a career threatening wrist injury, but what he is playing is curving upwards.

My last Wentworth fancy is a debutant who came so close last week. Thomas Pieters has two top 10’s in his last 3 starts. His confidence is high and his ability appears to have no limits. There is no reason why he can’t go well again and at 300/1, is worth risking. This is obviously a big ask but there have been many surprise winners of this Championship over the last few years.

In the States, in Ben Hogan country, at Colonial, I like Scott 18/1, Dustin Johnson 25/1, Zach Johnson 18/1, Harris English 66/1, John Senden 50/1 and Russell Knox at 80/1.

Scott should be buoyant after reaching world number one for the first time. This could give him the boost to reverse his course form and get involved here. He has a 64th and 65th in two starts at Colonial, therefore it is hard to get involved at the price. Zach Johnson has an incredible course record. 9-1-4-1-3. This probably justifies the price but his recent form doesn’t. I would play at 25/1+ but 18/1, well that seems tight.

Dustin Johnson is the one I like. 28/1 based on his fast finishing 7th last week seems decent. Boo Weekly won this last year. He is all about ball striking. He earned number 1 in proximity, 5th in greens, 6th in driving accuracy and also holed some bombs, including 5 from 12 from outside of 25 feet. Dustin’s ball striking is pure this year, his scrambling a little off and his putter hot and cold. If it is getting back to hot, based on last week, then he is a good bet at 28/1.

Harris English finished 5th here two years ago. He has been in fairly rank form the lat few weeks but is a big price at 66/1. He is too good not to bounce back soon and this appears to set up well for him. He is a ball striker and a half decent putting week would see him go close.

Knox I just don’t fancy at the price this week, which leaves me with John Senden. He has two top 20’s in the last 5 starts here. He finished 11th last week and 26th at Sawgrass, although the 26th was a lot closer than it suggests. He had an atrocious finish. To me he is now a player who fits the Boo Weekly profile, a striker who can get hot with the putter. 50/1 and he is a bet.

BMW PGA Championship

1.5 points win Justin Rose @ 14/1 (-1.5 pts)
1.5 points each way Francesco Molinari @ 25/1 (-3 points)
0.5 points each way Alvaro Quiros @ 80/1 (-1 point)
0.75 points each way Charl Schwartzel @ 33/1 (-1.5 pts)
0.25 points each way Thomas Pieters @ 300/1 (-0.5 pts)

Crowne Plaza Invitational

0.75 points each way Dustin Johnson @ 28/1 (-1.5 pts)
0.5 points each way John Senden @ 50/1 (+1 pt)
0.75 points each way Harris English @ 66/1 (-1.5 pts)

Special Bets

0.5 point each way double Justin Rose and Dustin Johnson @ 434/1 (-1 point)

2014 running total =  -15.6 points. This week’s investment 12.5 points. This weeks P&L = -9.5 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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