UA-33754892-1 Archives for 18 August 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Barclays and Johnnie Walker Championship

Last Week:

We finally got a player moving forward on a Sunday! Matt Jones, you made us proud. A surging 62 (-8) saw him shoot from nowhere up to a three way tie for 5th. The guys who had 6 places, like many bookies offered, were much more happy than the 5 place punters. I will settle it, for accounting purposes, as if we had only bet the 5 places. This means only 1/3 of our stake went on under the dead heat rules meaning we only won 10.83 points for getting a 100/1 chance placed. Still, Matt Jones shot the best score of the day and Matt Every three putted the last for us to get any return, so lets count our blessings.

The other four players we had on side did not come up with much. Tringale missed the cut. Kirk and BDJ made the cut but never really figured. Our 500/1 chance put in the best run outside of Jones. He got up to a tie for 9th during the 3rd round and then I stupidly tweeted (@jasonkellygolf) and put the Kelly curse on him. He dropped 3 shots in his next 3 holes and never bothered the leader boards again. We won +5.83 points on the week and pushed our yearly total back to -110.11 points.

This Week:

The Barclays:

I do not have an awful lot of time for the write up this week as I am playing tomorrow in a TP Tour event tomorrow. The alarm is set for 06.15 so I do not intend to be too late.

The Liberty National course in Jersey City, New Jersey was criticised in 2009 for being set up too ‘tricky’. Players were vocal regarding the combination of brutal rough and hugely undulating greens. In fact, looking at the stats from that year you can see that the greens were the 2nd hardest to find all year and the most difficult from off the fairway. This won’t be the case this year. Tom Kite and Bob Cupp have changed 12 greens, widened fairways and five holes were shortened. One hole was made longer, the 16th, by a whole yard! That must have taken some designing!

Anyway, what does it all mean? Well, not very much from what I can deduce. The leader board at Liberty National was scattered with all sorts of players. It doesn’t appear to favour one type. If anything, you would say US Open players go well but, as mentioned, this bias may be undone this year. Players who can handle a breeze may have a slight edge too.

There are no clear winners in the course form and recent form category so I am going to go for three from the statistically strong and good price range. My top 10 would be Woods (11/2), Bradley (40/1), Rose (33/1), Spieth (55/1), Snedeker (35/1), Matt Jones (125/1), Haas (50/1), Horschel (125/1), Stenson (20/1) and Scott (16/1).

Jordan Spieth is surprisingly big as he lost in a playoff last week and has proven he is a real contender this year. His stats are superb and I am surprised to see 55/1 available about him. He will be coming here full of confidence and it should suit. He has no apparent weakness’ as his putting is much improved over the last few weeks. He has a win, two 2nds and 7 top 10’s in 19 events as a rookie. That is very, very impressive and I would be no bigger than 33/1 about him, so 55/1 is well worth a play.

I was surprised at Spieth’s price, but not half as much as I was at Matt Jones’. I was hoping to see maybe 66/1, I have him down as about a 40/1 chance, so to see 125/1 was fairly arousing! I couldn’t believe the price we got him at last week so to get some big, big value again this week is great news. As mentioned he closed out in spectacular fashion last week with a career best 62. This gave him his 4th top 10 in 7 starts. He ranks inside the top 50 in every major stat and sits 7th in total driving, 15th in ball striking and 9th in scrambling. The young Aussie is seriously underrated.

Finally, against my initial instincts, I am going to give Billy Horschel a crack at regaining some form. He has been playing some very poor stuff from just before The Open thru the WGC at Firestone but improved a little at the USPGA. He said he felt his game was back under control and going in the right direction. At 125/1 it is worth giving him the benefit of the doubt. If he can get anywhere near his early season form then he is a big price. The concern is his poor scrambling if he is not flushing it again. He ranks a lowly 157th in that stat. One can’t help he got a bit flat after winning and contending in Majors. Maybe he got a bit ahead of himself as expectations, including his own, rose. Perhaps he is reset now and will get motivated and buzzed by this playoff format, which should be right up his street. Another incentive is trying to secure a President’s Cup birth, which he will be desperate for.

Johnnie Walker Championship

Brandon Stone is playing and has a new set of irons and all new woods. Ping S55 irons are launched this week and he has got stronger woods. He is 150/1 with Spreadex but a more likely 125/1 with Stan James. I won’t bore you again with Brandon Stone number 1 fan spiel, but I would advise an interest on him this week at a good price.

I like Bjorn, Dyson, Fisher and Gallacher for this but was surprised how short all of them were. Instead I am going to plump for a some value about a player who loves playing on ‘home’ soil and has shown glimpses of late. Mark Foster has two top 10’s here including a 2nd in 2011. He finished 5th last time out in Russia and could get a poor season back on track at 80/1.

A French pair complete the lineup for this week. Havret and Bourdy. Bourdy has finished 6-10-15 in his last 3 starts at Gleneagles. He has not played much since June when he had a couple of top 10’s, but that, unfortunately is the nature of the European Tour these days. 66/1 is big enough to make me a player. Havret is the same price but looks even more value. He has a win and a 3rd here, finished 5th last time out, tied with Foster in Russia. He has 4 top 20’s in his last 7 starts and has an incredible strike rate in Scotland. He would be my best bet of the week. Jones is maybe better value but the Barclays is way more competitive than this.


The Barclays

0.75 points each way Jordan Spieth @ 55/1 (-1.5pts)

0.75 points each way Matt Jones @ 125/1 (-1.5 pts)

0.5 points each way Billy Horschel @ 125/1 (-1pt)


Johnnie Walker Championship

0.75 points each way Brandon Stone @ 125/1 (-1.5pts)

0.5 points each way Mark Foster @ 80/1 (-1pt)

0.5 points each way Gregory Bourdy @ 66/1 (-1pt)

0.75 points each way Gregory Havret @ 66/1 (-1pt)

Special Bets

1 point Matt Jones to finish top 10 @ 12/1 (-1pt)

0.1 pt each way double Havret @ 66/1 and Jones @ 125/1 (-0.2pts)

0.1 pt each way double Havret @ 66/1 and Spieth @ 55/1 (-0.2pts)


2013 running total = -110.11
pts. This week’s investment 10.4 points. This weeks P&L = -10.4 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
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