UA-33754892-1 Archives for 17 March 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Valspar Championship

Valspar Championship - In Running (after round 3)

1.5 units Paul Casey @ 9/4 (+3.38)


Valspar Championship - In Running (after round 2)

0.75 units Dustin Johnson @ 7/2 (-0.75)
0.5 units Paul Casey @ 9/2 (+2.25)
0.25 units Austin Cook @ 18/1 (-0.25)




Valspar Championship - In Running (after round 1)


0.5 units Dustin Johnson @ 4/1 (-0.5)
0.25 units Keegan Bradley @ 18/1 (-0.25)




Another good week. Our two guys, Fleetwood and Dustin, combined for a 9.73 unit profit. Fleetwood struggled over the weekend after a stunning opening two rounds. Johnson just plodded, he never quite clicked and had an ice cold putter all week. Still, profit is still profit.

I am still at Sawgrass so I will be brief. I am not covering Maybank as it is a weak field and the form always points to Euros but the conditions favour the Asians strongly. One to avoid for now.


Valspar Championship

A lot of pundits suggest Innisbrook suits short hitters. I don't think it does, it just doesn't discriminate against them as much as other courses. Players like Woodland have won here, Reed and Garrigus have strong records too. It isn't a benefit to be a short hitter, just the long hitters have to hit it straight a few times.

I like Dustin again. He was at the hotel here this morning and he was looking frustrated. I think he thinks he should have won last week. He has been for an early practice at Sawgrass. My guess is you will see him return to cross handed putting and putt better. His ball striking is just fine. He has two wins in his last 5 starts and although he is not a regular here, I expect him to go well. Mexico, where he won, also is supposed to suit short hitters. 11/2 available, I would be 9/2.

I also like Louis Oosthuizen this week, he has just been a little too up and down of late, with a little too much down. I will back Webb Simpson in the 'top' markets, he looked strong last week. Stenson could have a good week and this course should be right up Hatton's street. Na and Henley have form here and could bounce back to form and a chance is taken on Beau Hossler to get into the top 20.


To Win

0.5 units Dustin Johnson @ 11/2 (-0.5)

Top 5

2 units Dustin Johnson @ 13/8 (-2)

Top 10

1 unit Webb Simpson @ 23/10 (-1)


Top 20

1.25 units Henrik Stenson @ 15/8 (-1.25)
1.25 units Tyrrell Hatton @ 11/4 (-1.25)
0.75 units Kevin Na @ 4/1 (nr)
0.75 units Russell Henley @ 9/2 (-0.75)
1 unit Beau Hossler @ 13/2 (-1)


72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

1.75 units Louis Oosthuizen to beat Furyk @ 10/11 (+1.59)





This week's P&L = -2.28
This week’s investment = 10.25 units


This week's Outright P&L = -7.75
This weeks's Outright Investment = 8.5 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +5.47
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 5.5 units



2019 Total P&L = +86.91 units

2019 Total Investment = 211.75 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +73.9 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 184.75 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +13.01 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 72.25 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

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