UA-33754892-1 Archives for 17 June 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Travelers Championship and BMW Int. Open

Travelers Championship - In Running (After Rd 3)

To Win


I still think Casey is outstanding value at 1.53. I have him nearer 1.2. We have backed him at 19, at 15 and 9 so I don't see any reason to get involved again at odds on, even with an 18% edge. If you haven't backed him then I suggest you do. For those who are looking to close out, laying 1.53 seems expensive to me. I'd stick and hope he closes it out.

We also have him in the top 5, top 10 and top 20 markets so we have enough upside so adding risk seems greedy and unnecessary.


BMW Int. Open - In Running (After Rd 3)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 12.34 points Chris Paisley @ 10 (-12.34)



Travelers Championship - In Running (After Rd 2)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 36.12 points Paul Casey @ 9 (-36.12)

BMW Int. Open - In Running (After Rd 2)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 72.94 points Scott Hend @ 7 (-72.94)


Travelers Championship - In Running (After Rd 1)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 21.84 points Paul Casey @ 15 (-21.84)
Sim Value Bet: 16.77 points Brooks Koepka @ 34 (-16.77)

BMW Int. Open - In Running (After Rd.1)


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 13.65 points Sergio Garcia @ 34 (-13.65)




BMW Int. Open


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 21.45 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 9 (-21.45)
Sim Value Bet: 7.55 points Louis De Jager @ 201 (-7.55)
My Bet: 4.77 points SeungSu Han @ 56 (-4.77)

Top 5


Sim Best Bet: 8.89 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 2.75 (-8.89)
Sim Value Bet: 30.32 points Louis De Jager @ 46 (-30.32)
My Bet: 8.89 points SeungSu Han @ 11 (-8.89)


Top 10


Sim Best Bet: 45.86 points Louis De Jager @ 17 (-45.86)
Sim Value Bet: 45.86 points Louis De Jager @ 17 (-45.86)
My Bet: 15.26 points SeungSu Han @ 7 (-15.26)


Top 20


Sim Best Bet: 64.90 points Louis De Jager @ 9 (-64.90)
Sim Value Bet: 64.90 points Louis De Jager @ 9 (-64.90)
My Bet: 18.48 points SeungSu Han @ 3.6 (-18.48)


First Round Leader

Sim Best Bet: 2.00 points Thomas Pieters @ 41 (-2)
Sim Value Bet: 2.61 points Gavin Green @ 126 (-2)
My Bet: 2.00 points SeungSu Han @ 67 (-2)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

79.45 points Bjork to beat Bjerregard @ 1.91 (-79.45)
79.34 points Garcia to beat Sullivan @ 1.91 (-79.34)


Travelers Championship


To Win


Sim Best Bet: 16.63 points Brooks Koepka @ 22 (-16.63)
Sim Value Bet: 4.99 points Pat Perez @ 126 (-4.99)
My Bet: 9.82 points Paul Casey @ 19 (-9.82)

Top 5


Sim Best Bet: 12.60 points Paul Casey @ 5 (+50.40)
Sim Value Bet: 12.60 points Paul Casey @ 5 (+50.40)
My Bet: 15.18 points Pat Perez @ 21 (-15.18)

Top 10


Sim Best Bet: 18.56 points Paul Casey @ 3 (+37.12)
Sim Value Bet: 13.90 points Jhonattan Vegas @ 19 (-13.90)
My Bet: 25.31 points Pat Perez @ 9 (-25.31)


Top 20


Sim Best Bet: 33.06 points Paul Casey @ 2.10 (+36.37)
Sim Value Bet: no bet
My Bet: 33.06 points Paul Casey @ 2.10 (+36.37)


First Round Leader

Sim Best Bet: 9.41 points Brooks Koepka @ 34 (-9.41)
Sim Value Bet: 3.08 points Jhonattan Vegas @ 101 (-3.08)
My Bet: 3.01 points Pat Perez @ 90 (-3.01)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

48.98 points Cantlay to beat Dechambeau @ 1.83 (-48.98)





2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 337.83 points


This week's P&L = -615.23
This week’s investment = 914.27 points


This week's Outright P&L = -233.80
This weeks's Outright Investment = 532.84 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -381.43
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 381.43 points



2018 Total P&L = -662.17

2018 Total Investment = 15394.73 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = -176.59
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 7184.40 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -485.58
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 8490.68 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

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