UA-33754892-1 Archives for 17 July 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Canadian Open and Nordea Masters

Funny old week at The Open. The weather made it fairly unpredictable and when you look at the players that filled the first five places it is clear it was ‘a bookies’ Open. Well, for at least the antepost business.

Who could have picked Clarke? Of course we know that he is a links man through and through and a player with incredible ability but to I find it hard to believe anyone really thought a win was around the corner, let alone a Major victory. His Open record reads MC, MC, MC, DNP, 52nd and 44th. Was there a clue in the other Majors? Well, no! Masters DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP. US Open MC, MC, DNP, 52nd, DNP, DNP, DNP. He has one top 40 since 2006 and one top 10 in the last ten years in the Majors! It must be hard for players like Westwood and Monty who have contended for so many to sit and watch someone like DC to pop up out of nowhere and pick one up but in fact he did it in decent style. He made it look fairly easy in the end. Mickelson was the only player who tried to make it a little difficult for him. He was out in 30 and looked perhaps the most likely winner before Clarke eagled 7 and Phil’s putter got a little shaky on the back 9. Clarke had a few lucky breaks throughout the last round but you need that to win. I am happy for him and over the moon for Chubby his manager, a guy who has done a lot for me throughout the years. The Chubby-slam is on!

Mickelson was perhaps my most controversial pick last week (with only one top 10 in The Open in 17 starts and a little out of form) but in the end it was him that saved us. He finished second to win 10.25 points. We lost 13 points on the others to show a small loss. I think Els proved he is not a contender for anything at the moment. Until he frees up his putting I don’t think we will see too much of Ernie. It looks awkward and seriously unconvincing. I wish he would look at the old videos of his simple, natural, more upright, more comfortable style of ’94-’07 and go back to it. He still hits it awesome but he is over thinking, overanalysing and overcomplicating it. Striker put in a good show without ever getting in the mix. He finished 12th and top of the putting stats (again!). Mahan battled but was on the wrong end of the draw and missed the cut by 1. Aiken was also one the wrong side of an important draw. That combined with poor play meant it took a while to find his name on the board. The subscribers to the email would have got my Quiros injury warning and a recommendation of taking 5/4 about him missing the cut.

So, on to this week. It feels a bit flat after all the excitement of The Open but the Nordea Masters in Sweden boasts a decent and very international field. The Canadian Open misses some big guns but is still competitive. Lets have a look at the European Tour event first. The Bro Hoff Slott course hosts for the second year in a row. The 7350 yard par 72 with five par 5’s definitely suits the longer players but short hitters did well last year. Alex Noren practices here a lot and loves the course. It is very American with a lot of water. It is a tough test.

Alex Noren makes some appeal here. He is long, plays here a lot and is in decent form. 28/1 is a decent price in a field that is not very deep. The only thing with Noren is he is unpredictable. Every time I think he is going to struggle he plays great and vice-versa. His good friend Johan Edfors looks a decent bet too. 35/1 available about the big Swede. Dustin Johnson leads the market at 8/1 and should go well but it is a big ask after yet another bloody Sunday when in with a chance of winning a Major. Karlsson 10/1, Bubba Watson 18/1 and Stenson 16/1 all fit the profile the course asks for but all look short enough. I like Seung-Yul Noh at 40’s. He is a great player and has just undergone some major swing changes under Butch Harmon’s expert eye. He seems to have got it down now and is ready to go. He played well last week in conditions that really did not suit. Tiger’s coach Sean Foley stopped on the range at The Open and watched Noh hit a few and asked “Who’s that guy? He is good”. I guess thats high praise for a player who was in contention on Sunday here last year.

The US Tour is in Canada this week and they have attracted a decent field. Donald 8/1, Kuchar 12/1, Schwartzel 18/1 and Fowler 18/1 lead the market. Donald and Kuchar have to be tired despite both having last weekend off. Their hectic schedules must catch up sooner or later. They seem to play every week and Donald has been jetting all round the globe. I will pass on both. As I will on Schwartzel and Fowler. They both had big weeks last week and will be a little hungover from that, in a golfing sense!

Instead i am going to have another go with Hunter Mahan. He put in a good rally to nearly make the cut from the wrong side of the draw last week. He and his wife also enjoyed a relaxing break in the UK the weekend before so he should be fairly fresh. This season he has been solid without really performing how one would expect. He is 4th in greens and 3rd in par breakers. He is one of the top ball strikers and that should be perfect to tame the demanding Shaughnessy Golf Course. At 7010 yards, par 70 you have to be hitting it pretty good to contend! Only 8 players finished under par here 5 years ago when the venue last hosted. Hunter is a decent bet at 25/1.

Another who I am fairly keen on is Bo Van Pelt. He had a slow start to the year but has five top 15’s in his last six starts. He is 11th in ball striking on the US Tour and 28/1 represents decent value.

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Nordea Masters

1 pt each way Alex Noren @ 28/1
1pt each way Johan Edfors @ 35/1
1.5pts each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 40/1


Canadian Open

2 pts each way Hunter Mahan @ 25/1
1 pt each way Bo Van Pelt @ 28/1

2011 running total +122.05 pts This weeks investment 13 pts


My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.






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