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Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship Day 3

Garrigus (4/5) Vs Jacobson (11/10) - Obviously I like Garrigus this week and so far he is playing as good as anyone. However, this is a big test for him today. Jacobson ranks 1st in putting on tour, 12th in scrambling and 2nd in scoring. This week he can get away with some wild driving and is a fierce competitor. Tough to take a side in this one at the prices.

Stricker (10/11) Vs Piercy (10/11) - Piercy has been on fire so far this week. Donald did not have a chance yesterday when dispatched 7&6. However, despite his laid back persona on the course, he is a walking volcano and when he erupts his day is over. We know how reliable Stricker is and even on a non-going day he can scramble and putt his way around anywhere plus, with only a 10 tournament schedule this season, he will put everything into this. Now of course if Piercy continues his rich vein of form he is going to be hard to beat but Stricker is a good price in my view here.

Poulter (1/2) Vs Clark (13/8) - Now Poulter is ‘the king of matchplay’ and some other people apart from him will tell you that too. He played great yesterday when beating BVP but 1/2 looks very short to me. Clark is a very consistent player. He was 4 birdies, no bogies when beating Olesen yesterday. He is a tough guy to beat and Poulter may be a little complacent going into this one. 13/8 is a bit of value about Clark in my view and worth a play.

Kuchar (10/11) Vs Colsaerts (10/11) - Kuchar is awesome in this format and is an ultra consistent performer however Colsaerts is leading greens in regulation this week and has the weapons to beat anyone on any given day. This is one to watch rather than get involved in.

Simpson (4/6) Vs F-Castano (5/4) - This all depends on how F-Castano putts. He rips it but yips it. Simpson has scrambled well this week and managed to get through his games without hitting it too good. Again a tough one to call at the prices.

McDowell (4/6) Vs Lowry (5/4) -
I went against Lowry yesterday and he performed brilliantly to destroy Pettersson. G-Mac is who he is and one can expect a usual performance out of him. He is good for a couple under and one would imagine if Lowry shoots 3 or 4 under he will win but shoot level or worse and you go home. You would have to think Lowry is now out of his comfort zone and probably expected to be at home by now. If he does not think and stays caught up in the whirlwind he can win this, if he realises where he is he may catch a thumping. All in best left alone.

Watson (10/11) Vs Day (Evs) - Clash of the titans. Tough one to call. Day is in great form this year and Bubba looked a little yippy on the greens yesterday. A really tough game to call. I may just side with Day but not enough of a hunch to get involved.

Kaymer (10/11) Vs Mahan (10/11) - Two guys who are playing great, have similar profiles and are impossible to separate.

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Round 3 Matches

1.5 pt double Stricker to beat Piercy @ 10/11 and Clark to beat Poulter @ 13/8 (-1.5pt)

Already Advised

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Round 2 Matches


3 pts Carl Pettersson to bt Shane Lowry @ 4/6 (-3 pts)

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Outright

1 pt each way Robert Garrigus @ 80/1 (-2pt)

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Round 1 Matches

2 pt double Cabrera-Bello to beat Westwood @ 13/8 and Garrigus to beat Grace @ 4/5 (+7.45pts)

2013 running total = -22.2 pts. This week’s investment 8.5 points. This weeks P&L = +0.95 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
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WGC Accenture Match Play Championship Day 2

Nice start to the week as we made 7.45 points profit on our first round double. Westwood’s short game did indeed fail him down the stretch making 3 bogies in his last 6. I have been waiting patiently all day for Fowler V Pettersson to complete as no other games stand out. My view is Shane Lowry, who defeated world number 1 Rory Mcilroy yesterday is vulnerable. He made 5 bogies when beating an out of sorts Rory. He would have got beat in most the other games. Pettersson just beat Fowler on the 1st extra hole. Pettersson ranks 5th in scoring, looks to be rolling it well and can dispatch the robust Irishman who may feel a little flat today. Often you see the guy who upsets the day before under perform the day after. A bit like trying to back up a low round, it is tough to do.

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Round 2 Matches

3 pts Carl Pettersson to bt Shane Lowry @ 4/6



Already Advised

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Outright

1 pt each way Robert Garrigus @ 80/1

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Round 1 Matches

2 pt double Cabrera-Bello to beat Westwood @ 13/8 and Garrigus to beat Grace @ 4/5 (+7.45pts)

2013 running total = -22.2 pts. This week’s investment 7 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship

A rather disappointing week. Bubba Watson played his way out of the event in round one and missed the cut. Brendon De Jonge played his way into the tournament in round 1 turning in -4 before recoiling like a powerful spring to miss the cut. Jimmy Walker had another solid week, finishing 16th. Kevin Stadler was on the fringes of contention before making a triple bogey 7 on his 5th hole of the final round, a bogey 5 on his 7th and another triple bogey 7 on the 8th. He recovered well to finish 42nd. All in a poor week and a loss of 7.5 points. We drop to 22.2 points behind for the year.

This week is the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. It is one of those beautiful ironies that this is one of the heaviest punted events in the world of golf betting yet easily the hardest to predict. Any player in this field is capable of shooting 66 and if they do, become very hard to beat. It would come as no surprise to see a big named player venture deep into the event and equally it would be no real surprise to see a top ranked player not get past Wednesday’s first round. In 14 years the top ranked player has won 3 times. Each of these 3 wins was by Tiger in his prime. Tiger has not advanced past the 2nd round since 2008.

So any player’s week can end at any point, that makes this a bit tricky. Add to that the course does not really set up to one type of player and that the forecast looks very variable and the whole thing looks like a bit of a blur. The course can play up to 7791 yards long. The greens are big at an average of 6000 square feet. This makes it sound like a power over accuracy type of thing but then you have to consider that putting, scrambling and bogey avoidance seem to be the key stats for past winners. Since the event moved to Dove Mountain Ogilvy, Poulter, Donald and Mahan have been victorious. You would have to put these into the great scrappers category, apart from maybe Mahan, but his strength last year was his change to the Ping Nome putter, which he used to great effect. The reason for this is the huge slopes and run offs on and around the greens which make the target areas quite small, despite the size of the greens. A typically clever Nicklaus design quality.

At the end of the day the winner has to be a guy who is going to turn up and post a number 5 days in a row. Consistency, recent confidence and form therefore have to come into it to an extent. The draw is also a big deal. There are easier runs through for some than others. The interesting variable of the week has to be the weather. Wednesday is forecast to be very cold, very wet and very windy. As the week goes on the temperature will rise and the winds should slowly ease. Wednesday’s forecast could aid some potential upsets.

Lets look at the Bobby Jones bracket first. Rory Mcilroy has a good draw and you would expect him to come through the top half if finding his new equipment a little more to his liking. The bottom half looks a lot tougher. Bubba Watson, Schwartzel and the resurgent Jason Day looking like big dangers. All in a tough bracket to call but I would just side with Rory.

The top of the Ben Hogan bracket could be a shoot out in round 2 between Garrigus and Oosthuizen. A hot putter can never be dismissed and Freddy Jacobson has the short stick working well and could be the surprise. However, I do fancy Garrigus to come through. He has the weapons and consistency to beat anyone and this venue should suit him. Despite only ever having played one WGC event before this I can see him having a decent week. In the bottom half Rose looks a danger and the winner of the Garcia V Jaidee game should keep going for a few more rounds. I’ll take Garrigus to win the bracket.

The top of the Gary Player bracket looks to set up well for Woods. He had the blend of accuracy from the tee and a sharp short game down perfectly when winning the Farmers Insurance a few weeks ago. If he is in the same form he should win the bracket, but he has never got past round 2 at Dove Mountain and players like Hanson and Molinari will fancy a ‘no down side shot’ at beating Woods. Molinari has done it before. In the bottom half there are some decent chances. Westwood is not one of them as the past winners profile of scrambling and scrapping their way round could not be further away from his profile. Cabrera-Bello has a strong matchplay record and looks decent value at 13/8 to make it to round 2. Dufner V Sterne is an interesting match up. If Sterne takes his recent form into this he can go a long way. In Dubai and Jo’burg his long game display was at a level of which very few can reach or compete with. He is confident and needs a big week to get in the Masters. But Dufner is no walk over. Mahan defends and showed some form last week but Manassero has never lost a first round match. The bottom half is very hard to call and therefore one would have to side with Woods overall in the bracket.

Donald has a great draw in the Snead division. I think he wins the top half. The bottom half again looks very competitive. Poulter could be anything and, if on, I’d expect to see him get past Gallacher and then an out of form BVP or a ploddy Senden would not intimidate him too much in round two. Donaldson and Olesen have a lot to prove and will be relishing taking their good form into this. That could be a great game and neither will be giving it up in a hurry. Scott is first time out and should be able to outgun Clark, but you know Clark is good for -2 even on a non-going day so will still take some beating. But, one has to think that Donald is the man to beat in this bracket.

So, if the oracle is correct it will be Rory, Woods, Garrigus and Donald in the semis. That would be a great day of golf viewing!

Now there is an argument for a betting strategy in this knockout format. One could find a couple of players out the same bracket and back them and if one wins the bracket you have at worst an each way return, but at least one loser. Alternatively one could pick a player from each of the four brackets and go for the jackpot payout. None of them make an awful lot of sense unless you are really keen on a couple of players chances, which surely it is very hard to be in this format. Therefore the only sensible thing for me to do is make a small play on Robert Garrigus in the outright at 80/1 and hope for the best.

I will be keeping a close eye on the matches throughout the week and will update on here and through email if there is anything that stands out.

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Outright

1 pt each way Robert Garrigus @ 80/1

WGC Accenture Match Play Championship - Round 1 Matches

2 pt double Cabrera-Bello to beat Westwood @ 13/8 and Garrigus to beat Grace @ 4/5 (+7.45pts)

2013 running total = -22.2 pts. This week’s investment 4 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


Comments