UA-33754892-1 Archives for 16 September 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Portugal Masters and The Tour Championship

Portugal Masters In running after round 3

To Win:

2 points Lucas Herbert @ 2.38 (2.5 on Betfair) (-2)

The Tour Championship

To Win:

I like Dustin Johnson's price again this week, 9/1 is very fair, but then one hears of his off course issues and an imminent divorce, and one wishes we had known this information a few weeks ago.

Fowler is also fairly priced again but has very average course form and relied heavily on his putting at the BMW when finishing 8th. 20/1 is decent, I would be 12/1 but he needs to strike it better at East Lake, players who have had success here have hit a lot of greens.

Kopeka is available at 14/1, I would be 10/1. He leads strokes gained tee to green in the playoffs and we all know he can putt. Really wouldn't be surprised to see him have a very big week.

But maybe the best bet of the week is Tommy Fleetwood. He is number one in the all around ranking and although on debut here this course could not set up better for him. He controls his flights well and seems to be able to bring it every week. 26/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, I would be 16/1.

0.25 points Brooks Koepka @ 15 (-0.25)
0.25 points Tommy Fleetwood @ 27 (-0.25)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

1.81 points Jason Day to beat Bryson Dechambeau @ 1.83 (+1.5)
1 points Rickie Fowler to beat Tiger Woods @ 2 (-1)

Portugal Masters

To Win:

There's a few players that stand out as value here. The Victoria Course is there for the taking. No trees, little water in play, wide fairways and good weather. Expect to see a lot of scores deep into the 60s.

I like Garcia at 22/1. I know his form is rough but he is quality and plays his best when he feels the world is against him and he has a point to prove. He will be ready for next week's Ryder Cup and I expect his month off preparing should overflow into a decent performance here. I would see him nearer 12/1.

Ross Fisher is another who, at his best, would have few peers here. Clearly he has not been at his best for a while but his course form suggests he could bounce back this week. 66/1, I would be 25/1.

Finally I will take a chance with Sebastian Soderberg at 150/1. He has a win, a second and a 6th in the last 13 weeks. He should like this venue and has wrapped his card up for next year as is currently 2nd on the Challenge Tour. Could free wheel into contention here.

On a personal note it could be wise to keep Andy Sullivan on side again this week. I am told he is playing very well and is very confident. Tie this is in with a win here in 2015 and a 2nd in 2016 and it makes 25/1 seem fair, although the sim makes him bang on 25/1.

0.4 points Sergio Garcia @ 23 (-0.4)
0.25 points Ross Fisher @ 67 (-0.25)
0.25 points Sebastian Soderberg @ 151 (-0.25)
0.25 points Andy Sullivan @ 26 (-0.25)

72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

1.2 points Sergio Garcia to beat Schwartzel @ 1.83 (+1)

This week's P&L = -1.95 points
This week’s investment = 5.86 points

This week's Outright P&L = -1.65 points
This weeks's Outright Investment = 1.65 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -0.3 points
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 6.1 points

2018 Total P&L =  -109.8 points

2018 Total Investment = 1838.49 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = 
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 880.39 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -78.35 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 959.49 points

2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan.  Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.  

It is important to focus on bet size.  It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.  

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide.  So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection.  Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year.  The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account.  This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more.  Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones.  It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated.  The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested.  The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 

Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 

Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.