UA-33754892-1 Archives for 16 September 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Tour Championship Round 2 18 hole matches

Tour Championship Round 2 18 Hole Matches

5.5 points Bo Van Pelt to bt Scott Piercy @ 8/11 (+4pts)
3 points Rory to bt Mickelson @ 5/6 (+2.5pts)
2.5 points Westood to bt Els @ 4/5 (+2pts)


Tour Championship Round 1 Matches

2 pt double Kuchar @ 6/4 to bt Donald and Bradey @20/19 to bt Stricker (-2pts)

Tour Champonship 72 Hole Matchbet

3 pts Jason Dufner to beat Jim Furyk @ Evs

Already Recommended

2 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 33/1
2 pts each way Jason Dufner @ 33/1
1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 40/1
0.5 pts each way John Huh @ 100/1

2012 running total +173.23 points. This weeks investment 28 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf


Comments

Tour Championship Round 1 18 Hole Matchbets

In the first round 18 hole matches I think John Huh is a big price at 13/8 to upset Webb Simpson but think both players are very closely matched.  Same story with Carl Pettersson to beat Jim Furyk.  6/4 is on the big side but tough to call the game.  I think Bo Van Pelt will beat Robert Garrigus but 4/5 is not overly exciting.

The two I am going to be with is Matt Kuchar to beat Luke Donald and Keegan Bradley to beat Steve Stricker.  6/4 is a nice price about Kuchar.  He will be as steady as ever tee to green and any sort of up turn in his putting will see him very hard to beat.  He went to Georgia Tech so will have played plenty of golf at East Lake.  Donald went well here last year but his long game is not in good shape at the moment and the putter can only save you so much at East Lake.  

Keegan Bradley led after round one here last year. I fancy him to get off to a fast start again and has the firepower to do so.  Stricker's stats are a bit of an enigma.  He is 99th in total driving, which has always been his Achilles heel, but he is a lofty 14th in greens in regulation.  This may explain why statistically he is having one of his worst years with the putter, ranking 52nd, but to me he is a sitting duck for Bradley and 20/19 is good enough to get me interested.

Tour Championship Round 1 Matches

2 pt double Matt Kuchar to Bt Luke Donald @ 6/4 and Bradley to Bt Stricker @ 20/19 (the double plays just over 4/1)


Already Recommended

Tour Champonship 72 Hole Matchbet

3 pts Jason Dufner to beat Jim Furyk @ Evs

Outright

2 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 33/1
2 pts each way Jason Dufner @ 33/1
1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 40/1
0.5 pts each way John Huh @ 100/1

2012 running total +173.23 points. This weeks investment 17 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf
Comments

Tour Championship 72 Hole Matchbet

I like Jason Dufner to beat Jim Furyk @ Evs in the 72 hole match bets. Furyk is a grinder and has a win at East Lake under the conditions but for me Dufner should be favourite. The course sets up perfectly for his solid and accurate game. Furyk will want to have a big week here as a past winner and to get some confidence for next week but as we have seen on more than one occasion this year when the chips are down and the pressure is on he has buckled. He is not the same player as he was a few years ago in my opinion. His putting looks fragile. In respect to Furyk, the one thing that really is incredible is he ranks 4th in scoring and 135th in birdies per round. Like I said he is a grinder, but Dufner is a better player right now and great value. On my figures Dufner is an 8/11 chance so Evs is too good to ignore.

Tour Champonship 72 Hole Matchbet

3 pts Jason Dufner to beat Jim Furyk @ Evs

Already Recommended

2 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 33/1
2 pts each way Jason Dufner @ 33/1
1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 40/1
0.5 pts each way John Huh @ 100/1

2012 running total +173.23 points. This weeks investment 15 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf


Comments

Tour Championship

After sitting out last week, rather wisely, I am raring to go this week. Not often the tips come out on a Monday but I like the look of this event. The field comprises of 30 of the PGA Tour’s finest who have all earned their right to tee it up this week. Some through consistent long term form and some through a short burst of playoff form. But it does not matter to me how they got to East Lake, what matters to me is who will win at East Lake.

The winner will have to be a good putter who enjoys quick Bermuda greens. Since the change from bent grass in 2007 the scoring has soared. It is the 7319 yard, par 70’s main defence. 3 of the 4 winners since the change in surface have led the field in putting for the week. The winner will not have to be a birdie machine either. None of the last four winners finished in double digits under par and that’s including last year when dry weather meant there was very little rough.

I don’t disagree with the common and rather obvious belief that the winner will come from one of the best two players in the world, Rory Mcilroy and Tiger Woods. Rory’s form has been sensational since wining the USPGA and then the last two play off events. 9/2 is short enough about a guy who ranks 76th in putting and 41st in greens in regulation. 142nd in driving accuracy is not ideal either. The soft conditions in the last two Fedex events have suited him well and his scoring has been sensational but this traditional, faster old venue may not be ideal for him. Remember how he putted when the greens got quick at Bethpage? I think you have to be a brave man to have a serious bet on Rory this week. I rate Woods with a better chance than Rory. His all round game is in great shape and he will be hungry to regain his superiority over Rory on a course he has a great record at. He won in 2007 shooting -23, winning by 8 (pre green changes) and four 2nd place finishes. He has not played East Lake since 2009 and looked in great shape when finishing 3rd and 4th in his last two events. At 11/2 he rates as a better bet than Rory, but still too short for me. When the 72 hole match bets come up it will be interesting to see how they price up the Rory Vs Woods ‘battle’.

This is how I see it. Bo Van Pelt at 33/1 is a bet (40/1 with Bwin). It is impossible to leave out a guy who has had top 10’s in 9 out of 23 starts. He never seems to have a bad week which, when you consider his stats, is not surprising. 2nd in total driving, 21st in greens in regulation, 13th in putting, 9th in birdies and 12th in scoring. The problem is he never seems to have an exceptional week. We would have made some serious money if we had been selling his finishing positions on the spreads this year! When you throw in a 9th place finish at East Lake last year when he led driving accuracy and played holes 9-18 in a bogey free 9 under you realise he has to be backed again.

Jason Dufner is also a bet at 33/1. East Lake should suit his game perfectly and for me he should be 20/1. He was going off at 20’s and shorter in full field events a few weeks ago so this seems very generous. The soft, long, low scoring, conditions of the last two events were far from ideal and he will enjoy this set up much more. I would imagine he regrets not playing the Barclays as he has slipped back to 10th in the Fedex Cup having started the playoffs in 2nd. I expect a big week from a guy who has learnt to win this season.

Keegan Bradley also gets the nod at 40/1. He led by two after round one at East Lake last year before slipping to an eventual 11th place finish. He has been in and out in the playoffs this year after getting hot at Firestone (1st) and USPGA (3rd) but is a streaky player and when he gets it going is seriously impressive. He is a great driver of the ball and thrives under pressure, especially on a big occasion and the Tour Championship is definitely one of those.

What I really like with these three players is the fact that in the major stats categories they average a ranking of 6th in total driving, 20th in greens in reg, 36th in putting, 5th in birdies per round and 10th in scoring average with a mean price of 35/1. Good.

Elsewhere I think John Huh (100/1), John Senden (80/1) and Scott Piercy (100/1, 150/1 in a place) offer some decent value. Of these Senden is the best player but Huh, the only rookie in the field, offers the best value. Senden finished 25th here last year and ranked last in putting, not a good sign. Huh hits it very straight, ranks 8th in driving accuracy and has a solid all round game. All in I rank him 17th out of the 30 but the best value. East Lake will suit him and although not one to get carried away with, a small piece of 100/1 in a 30 man field is too good to turn down.

As I mentioned earlier the 72 hole matches have not been priced up yet and neither have the 1st round 18 hole match bets. I will be interested to see the prices on Rory Vs Woods in a 72 hole match bet and in the 1st round games I like the look of Kuchar to beat Donald, Pettersson to beat Furyk, BVP to beat Garrigus, Bradley to beat Stricker, Dufner to beat Zach Johnson and Scott to beat Els. But lets wait and see how they price them up first. Anything that looks good will be sent on the email.

Enjoy, JK.

Tour Champonship

2 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 33/1
2 pts each way Jason Dufner @ 33/1
1.5 pts each way Keegan Bradley @ 40/1
0.5 pts each way John Huh @ 100/1

2012 running total +173.23 points. This weeks investment 12 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

www.jasonkellygolf.com
Twitter: @jasonkellygolf


Comments