UA-33754892-1 Archives for 16 October 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Castello Masters and Disney

We lost again last week for the second week in a row, not good, lets make amends. In Portugal last week Thomas Aiken had a solid week but was not good enough, Edfors was going well before self combusting with a 76 on Saturday and Ross McGowan had a return of his shoulder injury that has plagued him all year. He missed the cut. In America we had three losers too. I was surprised, I really liked the picks. They are all solid players but David Toms, Zach Johnson and Matt Kuchar were poor. Kuchar performing the best but well off the pace. We lost 16 points dropping us down to +153.79 points for the season. £1537.90 profit to a £10 stake.

Tom Lewis was incredible last week. For him to win in his third event as a professional is an unbelievable achievement. To do it in a European Tour event with a pretty decent field is extraordinary. Perhaps I have to eat my words from a few weeks ago. Perhaps he is the real deal. He is 33/1 in Spain this week and with his bullish yet grounded attitude I can actually see him going well again.

The Castello Masters is played at Club De Campo and is hosted by Sergio Garcia. It is Sergio’s home course but it is hard to get too excited about his chances as he has had a long break and seemed disenchanted once again after a poor week at Cog Hill. The course features small, well protected greens and is fairly undulating. Course management is important but length from the tee is also a key factor.

Tom Lewis certainly looks to fit the profile again but surely it is too much of an ask for him to win again. 33/1 is a fair price though and he has to be considered. Defending champion Matteo Manassero is less than half the price at 14/1 which surely makes Lewis’ price look too big. The young Italian has been steady but not spectacular for the second half of this year. Lewis is now flying. Everything considered there is value in Lewis, which I can not say about many other players. He is the same price as when he teed it up in Austria which was his first event as a pro. I know this is a stronger field but he is now a winner. 33/1 looks like at least a bet to cover.

The other two I like are Hennie Otto and Thomas Aiken. A South African duo that look primed to go. Aiken has been playing nice, 28/1 is fair as this course looks ideal for him. Otto is a bit of a loose cannon but has been putting it together the last few weeks. He won in South Africa recently and shot the best of a day 63 on day three in Portugal showing he is still in good nick before a disappointing 71 on the final day. He hopefully has the taste for it and can do the job this week.

In the States it is the last event of the year and the fight for the money list goes on. Webb Simpson leads Donald by $363,000 and Donald really has to win to get back on top. The last time it came down the final event of the year was Vijay Vs Tiger in 2003. Simpson has made me proud. He was 94th on the money list last year and will win it this year. I have been tipping him since the start of the season. He also looks nailed on for Player of the Year honours.

I say he is soon to be confirmed as the moneylist winner as Luke Donald looked tired of golf and travel in Madrid. He finished 11th there which amazingly was his worst finish in his last five events. I don’t fancy him this week. He certainly putts well enough but he has not played here since 2003 and 8/1 looks very tight. Having said that I am against Simpson too. He missed a few short ones last week and scoring at Disney will be going very low this week. Again 10’s looks tight. Both have added pressure and look worth avoiding. Others are fighting for their lively hoods. There is a lot of pressure on them too. Maybe someone who can go and just play without worry is worth following.

I like Gary Woodland. This sets up well for him. He hits it long and hits a lot of greens, just like last years winner Robert Garrigus. However, 20/1 is too short. He may win but I will leave that price alone. This is a good field and I would expect him to be double that price. At first sight Justin Rose looked short to me at 14/1. On closer inspection it does not look so bad. He has a third and two fourths at Disney and has the course record on the Palm course, a 60. Greens in regulation is a key stat at Disney, he is 10th on tour. A big plus is he will be confident after his win at the BMW a few weeks ago and has nothing to lose here.

My second pick is Chris Couch. 125/1 is a good price for a player who was born in Florida, went to university in Florida and lives in Florida. He will enjoy the bermuda greens and does not fear making birdies. He sits 19th in birdie average. I expect him to give us a good run at a nice price this week.

Nate Smith gets my final pick. He is a huge price at 400/1. He is a birdie machine when he gets going and spent much of the McGladrey in the top 10 before slipping back on Sunday. His overall stats are poor but he sits 34th in putting. These resort courses will not test his long game so much and he can have a big week to secure his future on tour.

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Castello Masters

1.5 pts Tom Lewis @ 33/1
1 pt each way Thomas Aiken @ 28/1
0.5 pts each way Hennie Otto @ 125/1

The Childrens Miracle Network Hospitals Classic (The Disney)

3 pt win Justin Rose @ 14/1
1 pt each way Cris Couch @ 125/1
0.5 pts each way Nate Smith @ 400/1

Special Bets

1pt accumulator Stephen Gallacher to bt Richie Ramsay @ 10/11, Woodland to bt C. Howell @ 4/5, Ames to bt Goosen @ 10/11 and Levin to bt Immelman @ 4/5 (72 hole match bets)

2011 running total +153.79 pts This weeks investment 13 pts

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.