UA-33754892-1 Archives for 16 January 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Abu Dhabi Championship and Bob Hope Classic

Last week was a tough week for golf punters. The biggest field of the year at the Jo’burg Open and the ‘first time outers’ in Hawaii. Still, we showed a profit, a fair achievement. Paul Stankowski, Tyron Van Aswegan and David Dixon all played like their huge prices suggested they would but Nate Smith didn’t. On his debut as a full member on the PGA Tour ‘Natedog’, a 500/1 recommendation, was in sixth position going into the final round just a couple of shots off the pace. A triple on his second hole ended his title chances and an error ridden round of 74 saw him slip down the leaderboard. I am not sure we will get 500/1 about him again this year, although a loser this week it felt good to get this price. The ever solid long game and excellent putting of Tim Clark got us in profit this week. A best of the day 64 in the final round saw him finish second. He made us 8.75 points and with Jeev Milkha Singh a non-runner we delivered a profit of 4.75 points, taking our yearly profits to +19.5 points, or £190.50 to a £10 stake.

Abu Dhabi boasts a strong field this week with world number 1 and 3 heading the market. This course is 7500 yards and is all about length from the tee. Bombers like Casey and Kaymer have great records here. I can see all the players under 20/1 going well, Kaymer 8/1, Westwood 9/1, Mcilroy 11/1, Mcdowell 14/1, Casey 16/1 and Poulter 16/1. Obviously as they are all top 15 players in the world they each look like good solid bets but do not represent great value and without a strong view about any of them I am going to ignore the market leaders. However this means I have to find a player to beat these six! I am going to put forward Retief Goosen. He shot -8 in the Al Naboodah pro am yesterday, described by Ross Fisher as an unbelievable round. He is sometimes a little wild off the tee but his awesome putting with the belly putter can put him right in the mix here, take the 40/1. By the way, he is 16th in the world and twice the price of the six market leaders.

Seung-Yul Noh is my second and final pick in Abu Dhabi. The South Korean superstar won the Asian order of merit last year. A long hitter, his game looks ideal for this course and is a very fair price at 80/1.

The other two on my shortlist are Mickelson and Quiros. Mickelson is 22/1 generally and 25’s in a couple of places. He has delivered unbelievable returns when starting bigger than 16/1. Unfortunately this cannot be the one and only reason to back a player. He showed poor form after winning the Masters and could be anything after a long break. Although I still am very tempted! Quiros’ game sets up so well here, but again, first time out and only 40/1 is off putting.

The Bob Hope Classic is a five round pro am tournament where the scoring normally goes frighteningly low. The winner will be around -1 for every 3 holes he plays. All about putting and making loads of birdies here. I like Tim Clark, he hits loads of greens so will have plenty of birdie chances and is a great putter. However he has bad blisters on his feet from last weeks 36 hole final day and may still withdraw from the field....five rounds with blisters does not sound like a potential champion. Not worth risking at 14/1. Kuchar is a worthy favourite. 10/1 is a fair price for a player continuing where he left off last year with tied 6th and 5th finished so far. In 144 holes he has 1 eagel, 40 birdies and 12 bogies, nothing worse. Pretty impressive stuff for the first two events of the season. I hate backing favourites but I have to be with Kuchar here.

Next in is Bubba Watson, 25/1 is a fair price about a player who finished 2nd here last year. He was 2nd in greens in regulation then and is 8th in total birdies. He should go well.

Charley Hoffman very nearly got the nod as my final pick. A past champion here and fits the profile but his putter was a little cold in Hawaii, it will need to warm up here. Therefore Nate Smith gets in the staking plan again. A big showing last week will further convince him he belongs out on tour and an excellent putter he should go well again at 200/1.

Abu Dhabi Championship.

1.5pts each way Retief Goosen @ 40/1
1pt each way Seung-Yul Noh @ 80/1

Bob Hope Classic.

2 pts win Matt Kuchar @ 10/1
1 pt each way Bubba Watson @ 25/1
0.5pts each way Nate Smith @ 200/1

Special Bet.

0.5 pts each way double Phil Mickelson @ 25/1 and Charley Hoffman @ 35/1

2011 running total +19.5 pts This weeks investment 11 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

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