UA-33754892-1 Archives for 16 February 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

WGC Accenture Matchplay Round 3

No bets in round 3, looks pretty tight and correctly priced. Also, still a little shell shocked form Matsuyama’s bogey, bogey finish to lose to McDowell after being up all the way.

The good news is the two of the three bets I considered were backing the guys we already have in the outright market, Simpson and English. I fancy Spieth to beat Kuchar but if I was going to back him I would rather take 10/1 each way than Evs to win this game. He has played fewer holes than anyone, which becomes important as the week goes on. It’s good to have reserves to dig in to.

Still, no bets today

(Already Advised)

Outright

1.5 points each way Dustin Johnson @ 20/1 (-3 points)
1 point each way Webb Simpson @ 33/1 (-2 points)
0.5 points each way Harris English @ 66/1 (-1 point)

Round 1 ‘Banker’ Accumulator

2 point accumulator - Jimmy Walker (4/6) to beat Brandon Grace, Dustin Johnson (8/15) to beat Peter Hanson, Jason Day (8/15) to beat Thorbjorn Olesen, Ryan Moore (8/11) to beat Joost Luiten, Zach Johnson (8/15) to beat Richard Sterne (-2 points)

Round 1 ‘Chances’ Treble

1 point treble - Hideki Matsuyama (10/11) to beat Martin Kaymer, Harris English (10/11) to beat Lee Westwood, Thomas Bjorn (18/19) to beat Francesco Molinari. (+6.1 points)

Round 1 ‘Outsiders’ Treble

0.5 point treble - Kevin Stadler (6/4) to beat Charl Schwartzel, Chris Kirk (6/5) to beat Jim Furyk, Stephen Gallacher (11/10) to beat Ernie Els. (-0.5 points)

Round 1 ‘Value Play’

0.5 points Boo Weekley (3/1) to beat Rory McIlroy (-0.5 points)

Day 2 WGC Accenture Matchplay

1.5pt treble Patrick Reed (EVS) to beat Coetzee, Ryan Moore (11/8) to beat Kuchar, Matsuyama (6/5) to beat McDowell (-1.5 points)
(Pays 14.68 points)

0.5 points Ernie Els (17/11) to beat Rose and Manassero (11/8) to beat Dufner. (-0.5 points)
(Pays 2.52 points)

2.5 points Matsuyama (6/5) to beat McDowell (-2.5 points)

2014 running total = -32.5 points. This week’s investment 14.5 points. This weeks P&L = -6.9 points

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Comments

WGC Accenture Matchplay Day 2

16.20 - Garcia versus Haas is a tight game. Garcia is short enough at 4/6.

16.32 - Jimmy Walker should beat Fowler but I wouldn’t be a backer at 4/6. This format suits Fowler who makes the occasional big mistake.

16.44 - Huge win for Hanson yesterday against Dustin Johnson. He has another tough game here with Dubuisson. Too close to call.

16.56 - I like Bubba to beat Blixt. I don’t really rate Blixt but he did have an impressive win yesterday. Not a player at 4/7.

17.08 - Day versus Horschel is a tighter game than the prices suggest but it is hard to back against Day.

*17.20 - Patrick Reed is nicely priced to beat Coetzee. Take even money against a multiple US Tour winner playing someone who struggles to get it done in Europe.

*17.32 - Take Ryan Moore to beat Matt Kuchar. I see them as very similar players and although Kuchar has more to show here, Moore has shown much more this season. I would make this ‘take your pick’ so 11/8 is big.

17.44 - Spieth versus Bjorn is a good game. My brain clearly picks Spieth but my heart say Bjorn. On paper Spieth wins but Bjorn is a great competitor, one to watch.

17.56 - I think English has a legitimate chance to beat Rory. I would not see it as an upset. However, we are already on English in the outright market so at 13/8, which isn’t too flashy, we can just watch and hope!

18.08 - Furyk versus Schwartzel. No real opinion here. If Schwartzel is on there is not doubt the course sets up better for him but not a game to be involved in.

18.20 - I like Mahan to beat Sterne but the South African was very impressive yesterday. I’m not betting this game but I am still surprised to see Sterne so high in the world rankings.

*18.32 - Matsuyama to beat McDowell is a bet. 6/5? I would have the Japanese as favourite. This is the best value in the matches so far this week. McDowell is a straight hitting grinder but on a course like this the in form Matsuyama has much bigger weapons.

18.44 - Stenson and Oosthuizen could produce a match for the ages if they are both on. Stenson is the more consistent so would be favoured but a game for me to sit out of.

18.56 - I think Simpson beats an out of sorts Snedeker. Not at 3/4 though.

*19.08 - Sneaky feeling that Els may have got the taste yesterday evening, not for booze this time, for the game. When his competitive streak is heightened he can beat anyone. 17/11 about him beating Rose looks like a value, if not somewhat illogical, choice.

*19.20 - Dufner, a bit like Snedeker, is not quite firing at the moment. It is worth chancing Manassero at 11/8 against him.


Day 2 WGC Accenture Matchplay


1.5pt treble Patrick Reed (EVS)
to beat Coetzee, Ryan Moore (11/8) to beat Kuchar, Matsuyama (6/5) to beat McDowell
(Pays 14.68 points)

0.5 points Ernie Els (17/11) to beat Rose and Manassero (11/8) to beat Dufner.
(Pays 2.52 points)

2.5 points Matsuyama (6/5)
to beat McDowell


(Already Advised)

Outright

1.5 points each way Dustin Johnson @ 20/1 (-3 points)
1 point each way Webb Simpson @ 33/1
0.5 points each way Harris English @ 66/1

Round 1 ‘Banker’ Accumulator

2 point accumulator - Jimmy Walker (4/6) to beat Brandon Grace, Dustin Johnson (8/15) to beat Peter Hanson, Jason Day (8/15) to beat Thorbjorn Olesen, Ryan Moore (8/11) to beat Joost Luiten, Zach Johnson (8/15) to beat Richard Sterne (-2 points)

Round 1 ‘Chances’ Treble

1 point treble - Hideki Matsuyama (10/11) to beat Martin Kaymer, Harris English (10/11) to beat Lee Westwood, Thomas Bjorn (18/19) to beat Francesco Molinari. (+6.1 points)

Round 1 ‘Outsiders’ Treble

0.5 point treble - Kevin Stadler (6/4) to beat Charl Schwartzel, Chris Kirk (6/5) to beat Jim Furyk, Stephen Gallacher (11/10) to beat Ernie Els. (-0.5 points)

Round 1 ‘Value Play’

0.5 points Boo Weekley (3/1) to beat Rory McIlroy (-0.5 points)

2014 running total = -32.5 points. This week’s investment 14.5 points. This weeks P&L = +0.1 point so far

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'



Comments

WGC Accenture Matchplay Championship

WGC Accenture World Matchplay Championship

There are four players I would like to back in the outright market but unfortunately two of them are in the same quarter of the draw. Kevin Stadler and Harris English are actually both in the top half of the Hogan bracket. The preference has to be for English purely for stamina issues alone!

66/1 English is a good price. He hits it long and ranks 9th in greens, 5th in birdies and 3rd in scoring. More importantly he is carrying bags of confidence. The only question is if he can keep the putter warm enough. Outside of the elements he can control Rory looks like his biggest threat. However, he will face him early in the event and I am not even sure you would call it a real upset if he did beat him. I like his chances at the price.

My other two bets are fairly predictable. Dustin Johnson and Webb Simpson. Both are in great form and should be favourites in every match they play. Stenson was the only other one who I liked but he has been a bit hit and miss this season. I think 20/1 is generous about Dustin. He is playing unreal golf at the moment and the combination of ranking 8th in distance, 2nd in greens, 15th in putting, 1st in birdies and 1st in scoring makes him the favourite in my book. My only concern is he has played a lot recently and could run out of steam.

It is a similar story with Webb. 33/1 is simply to big about a guy playing at the top of his game week in week out. He makes the fewest bogies per round on tour and ranks 5th in birdies. This should make him very hard to beat. Throw in a rank of 3rd in putting and it makes 33/1 look fairly tasty.

Here are my quick thoughts on the round 1 matches.

Round 1 Matches

14.25: I think Poulter beats Fowler in a scrappy match. I don’t think either will go far in the event.

*14.35: Hard to go against Jimmy Walker (4/6) in current form. Grace will be the first victim of a player who should have a long week.

14.45: Bubba should beat Ilonen. It’s hard to think Bubba won’t show up and play considering his form of the last few weeks. Only complacency or a huge over performance by Illonen would stop Bubba progressing. 4/9 is too short though.

14.55: Bradley will beat Blixt but 4/7 is not a price I want to be on.

15.05: I think Stricker will progress but hard to make a call on the part timer who has just been through the ordeal of his brother having a liver transplant. Nearly didn’t play. Coetzee will be there to clean up if Stricker is not at his best.

15.15: Patrick Reed versus DeLaet is a tough call. As a gut shot I would go with DeLaet but should be a good match between to in form players.

15.25: You would expect Spieth to beat Larrazabal but so do the bookies. Not a player at 5/11.

*15.35: I like Bjorn (18/19) to beat Molinari. Molinari lead fairways at Pebble but rest of his game was very average. Bjorn is capable of blowing him away.

15.45: I think this is a tough game for Garcia, Leiishman is a very capable player and can get streaky. But hard to back Leishman all the same.

15.55: I think Haas beats Jimenez but 4/6 is not a great price.

*16.05: Hanson is a gutsy competitor but you have to feel that Dustin (8/15) has too much for him at the moment.

16.15: I have a slight preference for Dubuisson, he played well at Pebble but Streelman is a solid all round player.

*16.25: Jason Day is all class and Olesen is not at his best. Take Day at 8/15.

16.35: Two emotional, feisty players. I think Horschel could send Donaldson home but too close to call.

16.45: Kuchar should beat Wiesberger but Bernd is a strong player. If he were playing at the same level as last season he could cause an upset here. 7/4 is tempting but not big enough.

*16.55: Moore is a good match player and is playing great. Luiten is quality but a little off at the moment. 8/11 Moore seems generous.

*17.05: I like Stadler to upset Schwartzel. Stadler is playing well and, although much improved last week at Riviera, Schwartzel didn’t have much in Jo’burg. Stadler to cause an upset @ 6/4

*17.15: We all know what a gutsy competitor Jim Furyk is, but Kirk is underrated. He hits a lot of greens and is a great putter. Furyk will find this course long. 6/5 Kirk, who has shown more of late, is the call.

17.25: Woodland versus McDowell is a great game that could go wither way.

*17.35: I think Kaymer really has to step up to beat Matsuyama. Kaymer has the name but at the moment, Matsuyama (10/11) definitely has the better game.

17.45: Snedeker is struggling a bit at the moment and that could make this a good close game against Lynn.

17.55: One of Webb Simpson’s toughest games comes in round one against Jaidee. I hope he doesn’t underestimate the Thai.

18.05: They have priced this up in quite strong favour of Dufner. I think Stallings is closer than the odds suggest but I don’t rate Stallings that much either.

18.15: Donald versus Manassero is an ugly game. This is going to be no ball striking fest. Great match up and will be good to watch them chip and putt it out.

*18.25: Rory should beat Weekley but Boo is no push over and at 3/1 is the sort of price you could back just on the basis that he can shoot 68, and if he does will be very tough to beat. Worth a small interest.

*18.35: I like English (10/11) to beat free falling Westwood. On paper they are not close this season and Lee, who appears to be coachless at the moment, seems lost. His 67-75 at Phoenix was very out of character.

*18.45: Zach is class and is playing great. Sterne carries a lot of self confidence and a length advantage but Zach (8/15) should get this done.

18.55: Mahan should win and loves this event but Gonzalo is a dark horse, and although has not been quite on recently, is more than capable.

19.05: Aphibarnrat is a very good player but Stenson should beat him.

19.15: Two of the hardest players to predict are playing each other here. Oosthuizen and Watney. Impossible to call which one will show up, but if they both do this could be the lowest scoring game of the day.

19.25: You would expect Rose to see off Piercy. We haven’t seen much of either of them this season so far.

*19.35: Els, the matchplay king but doesn’t like this event. He think 36 hole matchplay matches are much fairer, and he is right. Gallacher shone on the big stage in Dubai, where he won and defended. He played rounds one and two with Woods and Rory. That should give him huge confidence for this. Els played ok last week but I like Gallacher at odds against. (11/10)

WGC Accenture Matchplay Championship

Outright

1.5 points each way Dustin Johnson @ 20/1
1 point each way Webb Simpson @ 33/1
0.5 points each way Harris English @ 66/1


Round 1 ‘Banker’ Accumulator

2 point accumulator - Jimmy Walker (4/6) to beat Brandon Grace, Dustin Johnson (8/15) to beat Peter Hanson, Jason Day (8/15) to beat Thorbjorn Olesen, Ryan Moore (8/11) to beat Joost Luiten, Zach Johnson (8/15) to beat Richard Sterne

2 pt acc. pays 18.76 pts

Round 1 ‘Chances’ Treble

1 point treble - Hideki Matsuyama (10/11) to beat Martin Kaymer, Harris English (10/11) to beat Lee Westwood, Thomas Bjorn (18/19) to beat Francesco Molinari.

1pt treble. pays 6.1 pts

Round 1 ‘Outsiders’ Treble

0.5 point treble - Kevin Stadler (6/4) to beat Charl Schwartzel, Chris Kirk (6/5) to beat Jim Furyk, Stephen Gallacher (11/10) to beat Ernie Els.

0.5 pt treble pays 5.28 pts

Round 1 ‘Value Play’

0.5 points Boo Weekley (3/1) to beat Rory McIlroy

2014 running total = -32.5 points. This week’s investment 10 points. This weeks P&L =

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Comments