UA-33754892-1 Archives for 15 November 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

DP World Tour Championship and The RSM Classic

Last week goes down as a losing week in the books but those who bet Garnett each way with Paddy Power, as I know a fair few did, will be happy with his gutsy 12 foot par save on the 72 hole to finish in 7th by himself and get a place return of 25/1. We also got a place with Jason Bohn who lost in a three way playoff. We lost 6 points on the week as not everyone bets with PP.

Other observations this week:
The OHL was nothing to right home about form wise. The event in Japan this week had pretty much the same world ranking points, it was a pretty weak event so G-Mac's win is nothing to get too excited about, it was like a strong web.com.

Garcia can't finish, especially when there is water on the closing holes. When he got lucky with his approach on the par 5 13th he looked like he was set to win. See The Players Championship the last few years too. He still has the ability but his next win isn't getting any easier.

Finally, the youngsters don't have anyone to fear and in turn they fear no one, and certainly are not scared of winning. It is worth chancing a bit on the rookies early this season. They have won already and look set to continue the trend. Especially with the best players in the world taking more and more weeks off, mostly to their detriment.

On to this week and we have two good events but fairly limited betting opportunities.

The DP World Championship takes place at Jumeirah Resorts. I am not a fan of the course. It has random bunkers scattered in the most random and incorrect places, often in the location the hole is asking you to place your tee shot, which feels counterproductive. There is one clear advantage here and that's being able to fly the ball 290 from the tee, if you can most the bunkers are not in play. If you can't then you have to plot and thread your way around. Look at the winners and the big hitting advantage is clear. Quiros, Rory, Stenson, Stenson the last four years.

Interesting that clubs around the world endeavour to make their courses harder but the venue we have for the 'Tour Championship' is a 20+ under par course. Yet the new European Tour boss has said, "The BMW Championship at Wentworth can't be our flagship event as they play for more money the same week on the PGA Tour. The DP World Tour Championship is our flagship event."

It could be a tough time coming up for the European Tour with this outburst against its main sponsor, a sponsor that just announced its withdrawal from the BMW Masters and also an intention of withdrawing from golf completely if Germany is not announced as the next European Ryder Cup venue. With this and murmurs of Asia not wanting the 'coalition' it could see Europe isolated instead of a becoming "viable alternative to the PGA Tour by 2017." The European Tour badly needs allies to expand and it certainly can't afford to offend key sponsors. The PGA Tour is run as a charity which makes big sponsorship easy to find as it is tax efficient, it is not a level playing field and therefore hard to directly compete with. Keith Pellet seems a little over confident with his product.

Anyway, back to the betting, or maybe not quite yet! Danny Willett lies second on the Order of Merit, or the Race to Dubai as it should be referred to. Rory McIlroy was giving a special exemption to play this week despite not playing enough events for his money to count. If I was Willett and I finished second to Rory I would be contacting the lawyers pretty quickly. Likewise, if I was Seve Benson and I had finished 111th on the Race to Dubai I would be expecting a full card for next season and if I was Brooks Koepka, who can't play this week as, like Rory, he hasn't played his quota, I would be asking to play. I wouldn't have an issue apart from Rory was watching football instead of playing the British Masters, playing the fry.com event on the PGA Tour instead of the Portugal Masters and did not play the BMW Masters last week in China. That's three more he could have played to support the Tour as a thank you for the huge bonus' he is going to pick up this week from the Tour and from his sponsors.

Anyway, Rory is one of the three or four players I can't see getting beat this week. It is very hard to see the winner not coming from Rory, Stenson, Rose or perhaps Dubuisson. I make Rose the best chance but closely followed by Stenson and then Rory, then Dubuisson splitting them from the pack. If it were a leaderboard it would look like;

Rose -21
Stenson -20
McIlroy -19
Dubuisson -15
Poulter, Reed, Molinari -11
The rest -10 or worse.


Stenson is looking for a threepeat but Rose is the one I like. He is hitting it longer than ever and boasts the best current form in the field. Stenson and Rory have better course form but Rose makes up this difference and more with his recent form. I think 8/1 Rose is the bet ahead of 6/1 Stenson and 9/2 Rory. 22/1 Dubuisson is a decent each way bet but can't be bet alongside Rose. Rose is too short to back each way in our staking plan so we will wrap him up in some doubles to boost the each way part.

Outside of these four I've tried to find some value further down but nothing really stands out. Reed will like this but 14/1 is short, same with An, a great fit but 28/1 is tight. Van Zyl can bounce back at 100/1 but is chancy after a poor week last week and like the other two mentioned is on debut. Tyrell Hatton is the one that looks open to a lot of improvement and looks value at 200/1. He finished 6th last year and isn't in the best of form but can potentially get involved here, maybe worth a small interest.

One to consider taking on in match bets this week is Louis Oosthuizen. He is in the middle of a long stretch of events, I think it's 7 weeks in a row he will play, and this whilst nursing a hamstring injury. He goes fairly well here but isn't playing his best and his interest could quickly wane this week.

The RSM Classic in Sea Island, Georgia looks a better betting heat. The only problem is there is no stand out chance at the top. Straight hitters go well here, Tim Clark boasting the best course form from Kirk, Streb, Every, De Jonge, Chalmers, Karlsson, Gomez, Kisner, Kuchar and Lingmerth. With greens in regulation percentages high at Sea Island on both courses poor chippers and good putters will enjoy this equally. I think we can now see why Clark likes it so much! It's also a similar test to Durban Country Club where he won the SA Open a few years back.

Kisner looks the most likely for me. His 4th here last year instigated a terrific run of form which saw him lose in a playoff in The Players and continue on to the HSBC last time out where he finished 2nd. He has now established himself as one of the best players in the world, ranking 25th in the latest Rankings list. He fits the profile, although he is a good chipper too! 20/1 isn't huge but looks a solid bet.

Fabian Gomez is the bet of the week. I took some of the opening 125/1 and he is now best price 110/1 with Bet365 and a general 100/1 chance. He won in Argentina last week and 8th here last year. He fits the profile nicely and would expect to see him go well again at a decent price.

Outside of these two I think Kuchar will go well. He is one of many residents competing this week. I really want to back Patton Kizzire this week, it is a home game for him too and he is one of the talented rookies I mentioned in my observations. He has loads of ability but 28/1 after the week he had last week, finishing 58th, is too short in a competitive renewal. Smile Kauffman is perhaps the best putter amongst the rookies and this should suit the winner of the Shriners. 80/1 about him is one of the reasons the 28/1 about Kizzire looks short, but he has plenty to beat here.

I am going to take a punt on Tim Clark. His stats are horrible and has missed 3 out of 4 cuts this season. He did however show some signs last week in Mexico, 69-69-67-72 was good enough for 34th. He finished 2nd here in 2013 and the will enjoy being back here. 150/1 looks worth a few of our pounds.

DP World Tour Championship

3 points Justin Rose @ 8/1 (-3pts)

0.5 points each way Tyrell Hatton @ 200/1 (-1 pt)

The RSM Classic

1.5 points each way Kevin Kisner @ 20/1 (22/1 with Coral) (+37.5 points)

0.75 points each way Fabian Gomez @ 100/1 (110/1 with BET 365) (-1.5 pts)

0.5 points each way Tim Clark @ 150/1 (-1 pt)

Specials

0.25 points each way double Justin Rose @ 8/1 and Kevin Kisner @ 20/1

0.25 points each way double Justin Rose @ 8/1 and Fabian Gomez @ 100/1

0.25 points each way double Justin Rose @ 8/1 and Patrick Rodgers @ 30/1

0.25 points each way double Justin Rose @ 8/1 and Smylie Kaufman @ 80/1

0.25 points each way double Justin Rose @ 8/1 and Brendon De Jonge @ 50/1

0.25 points each way double Justin Rose @ 8/1 and Matt Kuchar @ 20/1 (-3 points)


2015 running total =  -155.65 points. This week’s investment 12.5 points. This weeks P&L = 28 points



2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

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