UA-33754892-1 Archives for 15 July 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Open Championship

The Open Championship 2018 - In Running After Round 2

To Win


0.4 points Xander Schauffele @ 7 (-0.4)
0.4 points Kisner @ 8 (-0.4)

We are in trouble. Horrible when you get it so wrong that you don’t have a live chance going into Sunday. I’ll take Xander Schauffele and Kevin Kisner against the field, but with wind forecast it is really tough to call with any confidence.



player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Spieth
32%
3

3
36.0%
3.7%
11.49
Schauffele
15%
7

5
19.8%
4.4%
28.49
Kisner
13%
8

6
17.6%
4.3%
32.31
Molinari
6%
17

14
7.3%
1.4%
23.29
McIlroy
5%
19

30
3.3%
-1.9%
-36.73
Woods
5%
19

38
2.6%
-2.6%
-50.34
Fleetwood
4%
23

45
2.2%
-2.1%
-48.65
Chappell
4%
23

18
5.7%
1.4%
31.39
Noren
3%
29

32
3.1%
-0.3%
-9.26
Zach
3%
36

66
1.5%
-1.3%
-45.20
Rose
2%
41

41
2.4%
0.0%
0.30
Kuchar
2%
46

73
1.4%
-0.8%
-36.98
Simpson
2%
51

43
2.3%
0.4%
18.49
Scott
1%
81

135
0.7%
-0.5%
-39.85
Finau
1%
101

95
1.1%
0.1%
6.61
Hoffman
1%
151

87
1.2%
0.5%
74.39
Van Rooyen
0%
201

233
0.4%
-0.1%
-13.66





The Open Championship 2018 - In Running After Round 2


To Win


0.25 points Perez @ 29 (-0.25)

A real mixed bag. Koepka moved a little back into contention. Perez is right in the mix going into the weekend. The event is all over the place but very bunched. It is very possible to come from off the pace. Casey is not in a bad position and can still make a move. A lot of big names won’t see the weekend including Dustin, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm.

At this stage Perez remains a fair price. Koepka too. But Perez, despite his fiery temper remains the best value bet on offer.

JK

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Fleetwood
14%
7

11
9.0%
-5.3%
-37.10
McIlroy
13%
8

10
9.7%
-2.8%
-22.80
Zach
12%
9

9
10.8%
-1.0%
-8.32
Spieth
10%
10

17
6.0%
-4.0%
-40.11
Fowler
9%
11

13
7.5%
-1.6%
-17.43
Kisner
7%
15

12
8.4%
1.7%
26.12
Schauffele
6%
17

16
6.4%
0.5%
9.21
Finau
5%
19

17
5.9%
0.6%
12.00
Kuchar
5%
21

23
4.4%
-0.3%
-6.86
Perez
3%
29

13
8.0%
4.5%
131.75
Koepka
3%
31

19
5.2%
2.0%
61.96
Noren
2%
51

52
1.9%
0.0%
-1.70
Woods
2%
51

114
0.9%
-1.1%
-55.25
Van Rooyen
2%
53

36
2.8%
0.9%
48.27
Olesen
2%
61

74
1.4%
-0.3%
-17.33
Willett
1%
71

245
0.4%
-1.0%
-71.01
Molinari
1%
81

82
1.2%
0.0%
-1.16
Chappell
1%
81

47
2.1%
0.9%
73.82
Day
1%
101

44
2.3%
1.3%
132.05
Stone
1%
101

185
0.5%
-0.4%
-45.27
Scott
1%
101

111
0.9%
-0.1%
-8.92







The Open Championship 2018 - In Running After Round 1


To Win


0.25 points Justin Thomas @ 15 (-0.25)
0.25 points Perez @ 126 (-0.25)

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Rahm
9%
11

12
8.5%
-0.4%
-4.20
McIlroy
9%
11

13
7.7%
-1.2%
-13.51
Thomas
7%
15

11
9.4%
2.7%
40.98
Finau
6%
17

13
7.8%
1.9%
32.76
Fowler
6%
17

15
6.9%
1.0%
16.84
Kisner
4%
26

19
5.4%
1.5%
39.82
Molinari
4%
26

26
3.9%
0.0%
0.66
Noren
4%
26

32
3.1%
-0.7%
-18.25
Woods
4%
27

82
1.2%
-2.5%
-67.15
Stenson
3%
29

25
4.1%
0.6%
18.29
Zach
3%
34

30
3.4%
0.4%
14.65
Rose
3%
34

60
1.7%
-1.3%
-43.38
Spieth
3%
36

46
2.2%
-0.6%
-21.12
Koepka
2%
41

25
4.0%
1.6%
65.24
Moore
2%
41

47
2.1%
-0.3%
-13.15
Day
2%
46

26
3.9%
1.7%
78.13
Fleetwood
2%
46

88
1.1%
-1.0%
-47.75
Stone
2%
51

67
1.5%
-0.5%
-23.88
Kuchar
2%
56

66
1.5%
-0.3%
-15.70
Henley
1%
67

31
3.2%
1.8%
117.63
Van Rooyen
1%
67

36
2.8%
1.3%
86.05
Southgate
1%
67

248
0.4%
-1.1%
-72.99
Willett
1%
67

514
0.2%
-1.3%
-86.95
Leishman
1%
71

89
1.1%
-0.3%
-20.55
Olesen
1%
71

112
0.9%
-0.5%
-36.49
Pieters
1%
81

78
1.3%
0.0%
3.95
Steele
1%
86

36
2.8%
1.7%
142.23
Simpson
1%
91

61
1.6%
0.5%
49.05
Cantlay
1%
91

75
1.3%
0.2%
22.06
Na
1%
101

92
1.1%
0.1%
9.19
Scott
1%
101

165
0.6%
-0.4%
-38.74
List
1%
111

84
1.2%
0.3%
31.41
Perez
1%
126

32
3.1%
2.3%
289.37
Casey
1%
126

46
2.2%
1.4%
176.67


The Open Championship 2018


The Open Championship, the biggest week in golf, is upon us.

As arousing as this sounds, it could be a funky one. Like last week the ground is rock hard, and although there are a few showers expected, it is likely to stay this way. The rough won’t be as thick as usual and the greens I am told are soft, slow and perfect. If the remaining defence, the wind, doesn’t blow one can expect a very low scoring Open with some ridiculous distance on tee shots.

This will make it an incredibly open Open. Like last week we also have a draw bias which is difficult to predict at this stage. In general the wind picks up by the coast in the afternoon and switches with the tide. This again tends to see scoring bunch up at the weekend with players being able to attack from well off the pace.

With the firm conditions emphasis could come away from the traditional Open profile of a gritty, patient, imaginative ball striker and move towards younger, fearless, low scoring putters. I am looking for guys who can go low and can use their pitching, chipping and putting to great effect.

My ante post shout of Tyrrell Hatton still looks my number one pick but his price is not so attractive now. His last two rounds at Carnousie are -5 and -7 (Dunhill Links) and loves it here. He has won the last two Dunhill Links Championships and finished 5th in last years Open Championship. His game suits links golf. He has a shallow angle of attack, especially with his wedges, owns a phenomenal short game and is a great putter. I played with him the Friday before last at a bone dry Walton Heath, he is playing great golf, his results show this with a run of 6th, 16th, 9th from Shinnecock to Paris to Scotland. This is a perfect set up for him.

Here is a nice link, when I asked Tyrrell who impressed him most having now played with the majority of the best players in the world his answer was Tommy Fleetwood. He explained further, "Tommy just has it every week, I mean when you watch Dustin hit it, it is different, but every part of Tommy's game is so solid, I mean I wouldn't copy how he putts, but he hits it solid every time, every week." I like Tommy Fleetwood at every Open, he also has the course record here (63). Unfortunately for Tommy he is a ball striker and an average putter so this may not be his week.

I think the value lies with the favourite, Dustin Johnson, who could tear this place apart if he is on. He has not been seen since we backed him at the US Open. No matter what the conditions he is a contender and a very worthy favourite. !4/1 available, I would be 13/2. He should be backed.

I also think Brooks Koepka is overpriced. Shinnecock was rock hard (where they played and he won the US Open, a winner for us!) and I am very surprised to see such a generous price about the US Open Champ. 25/1, I would be 14/1. He is a very similar profile to Dustin and has all the attributes to suggest another strong challenge.

As disappointing as Casey was for us the other week at the Travellers, where he blew a four shot lead in the final round, he is still overpriced for this. Worldwide he has finished outside the top 20 only 3 times in the last 13 months. Incredible consistency. As we have discussed previously he does not find winning easy, but you can take 2.75 on him finishing inside the top 20, which given the aforementioned detail, is very attractive. I would be no bigger than Evs in this market. 40/1 generally and 50 on Betfair is hard to resist too, I have succumbed.

Although he does not fulfil all the necessary criteria I like to tick off to make a player an outright bet I do like Jason Day’s chances. He has been quiet of late but has registered two wins in four top 5s in 2018 and is the best putter in the world. If this does turn into a pitch and putt tourney on perfect greens there are none better than him, if the wind blows his high ball flight isn't ideal. He is attractive to back as his Open record is very poor. He has one top 20 in 7 Opens. (4th at St Andrews in 2015). But like I said, this is likely not a usual Open. His efficiency and guile on and around the greens makes him a live challenger and good value at 35+, I would be 20/1. His value increases further in the Top 5 and Top 10 markets where I have chosen to back him.

A player I have sided with quite strongly in the Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20 markets is Pat Perez. He has played surprisingly few Opens. 2005-67th, 2007-20th, 2008-cut, 2017-cut. Interestingly the 2007 Open was also at Carnoustie. His recent form is poor MC-42-70-36-MC but look at the scoring in his 3 wins on the PGA Tour. 2009 Bob Hope -33, 2016 OHL Classic at Mayakoba -21 and 2017 CIMB Classic -24. If he clicks and the wind doesn't blow he will be able to keep up with and hopefully dictate the scoring. If it does blow he controls his ball flight well. As always with Pat, his chances will be less about the dark Scottish clouds and sea breezes and more about the dark clouds in his head and the wind generated by club throws, but if in the mood, who knows?

In summary I would recommend bets on Dustin, Koepka and Casey and keep Pat Perez's potential and value on side.


To Win


0.4 points Dustin Johnson @ 13 (-0.4)
0.25 points Paul Casey @ 41 (-0.25)
0.25 points Brooks Koepka @ 26 (-0.25)

Top 5


1.5 points Paul Casey @ 9.5 (-1.5)
0.5 points Jason Day @ 9 (-0.5)
0.4 points Pat Perez @ 56 (-0.4)


Top 10


1.5 points Paul Casey @ 4.6 (-1.5)
1 point Jason Day @ 5 (-1)
1 point Pat Perez @ 26 (-1)
0.4 points Russell Henley @ 14 (-0.4)


Top 20


2 points Pat Perez @ 12 (+12.54)
1.5 points Paul Casey @ 2.75 (-1.5)
1 point Russell Henley @ 6.5 (-1)
1 point Emiliano Grillo @ 7 (-1)


First Round Leader

No Bet


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2.5 points Casey to beat Hatton @ 1.80 (push)
0.6 points Molinari to beat Garcia @ 1.83 (+0.5)
0.5 points Finau to beat List @ 1.80 (+0.4)
0.63 points Poulter to beat Westwood @ 1.80 (-0.63)
1.2 points Rahm to beat Fleetwood @ 1.83 (-1.2)
0.44 points McIlroy to beat Rose @ 1.91 (push)
2.2 points Reed to beat Woods @ 1.91 (-2.2)


player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Dustin
7%
15.00

7.52
13.3%
6.6%
99.42
Rose
6%
17.00

26.14
3.8%
-2.1%
-34.98
Fowler
5%
19.00

16.31
6.1%
0.9%
16.51
McIlroy
5%
20.00

21.73
4.6%
-0.4%
-7.95
Rahm
4%
23.00

19.90
5.0%
0.7%
15.57
Fleetwood
4%
23.00

46.69
2.1%
-2.2%
-50.74
Thomas
4%
26.00

17.58
5.7%
1.8%
47.86
Koepka
4%
26.00

13.96
7.2%
3.3%
86.29
Spieth
4%
26.00

22.57
4.4%
0.6%
15.18
Woods
3%
29.00

69.03
1.4%
-2.0%
-57.99
Stenson
3%
31.00

29.18
3.4%
0.2%
6.25
Molinari
3%
34.00

31.10
3.2%
0.3%
9.32
Noren
3%
34.00

39.50
2.5%
-0.4%
-13.93
Garcia
3%
34.00

51.54
1.9%
-1.0%
-34.03
Day
3%
36.00

20.99
4.8%
2.0%
71.49
Casey
2%
41.00

14.23
7.0%
4.6%
188.02
Hatton
2%
41.00

63.18
1.6%
-0.9%
-35.11
Reed
2%
41.00

52.07
1.9%
-0.5%
-21.25
Grace
2%
46.00

83.91
1.2%
-1.0%
-45.18
Leishman
2%
51.00

42.98
2.3%
0.4%
18.65
Matsuyama
2%
56.00

34.31
2.9%
1.1%
63.23
Poulter
1%
67.00

112.75
0.9%
-0.6%
-40.58
Mickelson
1%
67.00

86.76
1.2%
-0.3%
-22.77
Fitzpatrick
1%
71.00

201.22
0.5%
-0.9%
-64.71
Knox
1%
71.00

269.77
0.4%
-1.0%
-73.68
Watson
1%
81.00

57.75
1.7%
0.5%
40.27
Zach
1%
81.00

68.13
1.5%
0.2%
18.89
Oosthuizen
1%
81.00

61.30
1.6%
0.4%
32.13
Kuchar
1%
81.00

110.18
0.9%
-0.3%
-26.49
Pieters
1%
81.00

92.54
1.1%
-0.2%
-12.47
Finau
1%
101.00

55.97
1.8%
0.8%
80.46
Cantlay
1%
101.00

110.75
0.9%
-0.1%
-8.81

Player2
Imp %3
Books4
Column1
Top 5
My %7
Diff8
Ex. V11
Dustin
25%
4

4
28%
3%
11.52
Rose
21%
4.75

5
19%
-3%
-12.01
McIlroy
20%
5

6
17%
-3%
-16.08
Rahm
18%
5.5

5
19%
1%
3.14
Fowler
17%
6

5
19%
2%
13.89
Spieth
15%
6.5

6
17%
2%
12.04
Koepka
15%
6.5

6
17%
2%
13.04
Thomas
14%
7

6
18%
4%
27.06
Fleetwood
15%
6.5

10
10%
-5%
-33.80
Stenson
14%
7

6
15%
1%
8.44
Woods
13%
7.5

13
8%
-6%
-43.20
Molinari
13%
8

7
14%
2%
14.26
Casey
11%
9.5

4
23%
12%
114.72
Noren
12%
8.5

9
11%
0%
-3.62
Garcia
12%
8.5

10
10%
-2%
-18.76
Day
11%
9

5
19%
8%
68.56
Reed
11%
9

11
9%
-2%
-14.65
Hatton
10%
10

11
9%
-1%
-10.09
Grace
9%
11

14
7%
-2%
-20.52
Leishman
9%
11

10
10%
1%
11.60
Matsuyama
9%
11

8
12%
3%
35.01
Mickelson
8%
13

15
7%
-1%
-11.30
Perez
2%
56

14
7%
6%
308.27


Player3
Imp %4
Books5
BF6
Top 10
My %8
Diff9
To Lose11
Ex. V12
Dustin
40%
2.5

2.56
39%
-1%

-2.37
Rose
35%
2.88

3.19
31%
-3%

-9.75
McIlroy
32%
3.1

3.62
28%
-5%

-14.47
Rahm
29%
3.4

3.32
30%
1%

2.45
Fowler
29%
3.5

3.36
30%
1%

4.19
Spieth
29%
3.5

3.51
28%
0%

-0.40
Koepka
27%
3.75

3.86
26%
-1%

-2.88
Thomas
27%
3.75

3.51
29%
2%

6.90
Fleetwood
26%
3.8

5.39
19%
-8%

-29.47
Stenson
25%
4

3.69
27%
2%

8.47
Woods
25%
4

6.91
14%
-11%

-42.13
Molinari
23%
4.33

3.97
25%
2%

9.15
Casey
22%
4.6

2.88
35%
13%

59.79
Noren
20%
5

4.95
20%
0%

1.03
Garcia
20%
5

5.59
18%
-2%

-10.58
Day
20%
5

3.31
30%
10%

50.98
Reed
20%
5

5.81
17%
-3%

-13.99
Hatton
18%
5.5

5.64
18%
0%

-2.52
Grace
17%
6

6.92
14%
-2%

-13.26
Leishman
17%
6

5.63
18%
1%

6.61
Matsuyama
15%
6.5

4.66
21%
6%

39.45
Mickelson
15%
6.5

7.06
14%
-1%

-7.94
Perez
4%
26

7.29
14%
10%

256.87

Player4
Imp %5
Books6
BF7
Top 20
My %9
Diff10
Ex. V13
Dustin
60%
1.67

1.9
51%
-9%
-14.33
Rose
55%
1.83

2.1
48%
-6%
-11.51
McIlroy
50%
2

2.4
42%
-8%
-15.53
Rahm
48%
2.1

2.2
45%
-2%
-5.13
Fowler
48%
2.1

2.3
44%
-4%
-7.95
Spieth
44%
2.25

2.3
44%
-1%
-1.76
Koepka
45%
2.2

2.6
38%
-8%
-16.54
Thomas
42%
2.38

2.3
43%
1%
1.43
Fleetwood
43%
2.3

3.1
32%
-12%
-26.79
Stenson
43%
2.3

2.4
43%
-1%
-2.23
Woods
40%
2.5

3.7
27%
-13%
-32.08
Molinari
39%
2.55

2.4
41%
2%
5.32
Casey
36%
2.75

2.0
50%
14%
38.04
Noren
40%
2.5

2.9
34%
-6%
-15.13
Garcia
38%
2.64

3.1
32%
-6%
-16.15
Day
38%
2.64

2.2
46%
8%
20.16
Reed
36%
2.75

3.3
30%
-6%
-17.47
Hatton
35%
2.88

3.1
32%
-3%
-8.32
Grace
31%
3.2

3.6
27%
-4%
-12.24
Leishman
29%
3.5

3.3
30%
2%
5.86
Matsuyama
31%
3.25

2.9
35%
4%
13.40
Mickelson
29%
3.5

3.8
26%
-2%
-7.54
Perez
8%
12

4.0
25%
17%
201.07


This week's P&L = -2.84
This week’s investment = 20.14 points


This week's Outright P&L = +1.84
This weeks's Outright Investment = 12.7 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -4.68
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 9.62 points



2018 Total P&L = -71.55 points

2018 Total Investment = 1649.49 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = -12.28 points
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 776.34 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -59.37 points
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 889.99 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

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Staking System

Updated 1st July 2018 - I have had quite a lot of feedback regarding the staking plan. Serious betters generally like it, casual punters not so much.


It is important to focus on bet size. It is as, if not more important, than the selections themselves in regard to showing profit.

It seems a suitable time, as we are halfway through the year, to change it too be better for both.

It is easy to keep the p&l record going, as I explained before, you could just divide the stakes by 10 and you would be representative of the previous staking plan, just without the round numbers.

The new staking stratergy, although similar to before (eg. If your normal bet is £10 then one point would equal £10) should work as a 'strength of bet guide' as well as a 'percentage of pot' guide. So, if I allocate 1 point to a bet this could 1) Show you this is a standard bet size but also 2) what percentage of your betting bank to allocate to this selection. Note the maximum percentage allocated to a bet would be 2% of your bank or 2 points, for odds on bets to win 2 points or 2%.

The points allocated to a bet reflect the size of our edge, the difference between the price available to bet and the price I think it should be, and are balanced in a way that proved most effective in back testing.

So if we have a;

2-5% edge I will allocate 0.25 points
5-8% edge 0.4 points
8-10% edge 0.5 points
10-12% edge 1 point
12-15% edge 1.5 ponts
15-20% edge 2 points

This is very similar to the strategy we have been using during the first half of the year. The main difference is the percentage chance of our selection winning is not taken into account. This may sound weird, but it makes the staking plan less volatile and also will reward big price winners much more. Most of our profit is based around landing a big fish rather than lots of little ones. It also doesn't make us so vulnerable to an attractive, short priced, large edged match bet where a stake is hugely inflated. The old system would up the stakes perhaps too much on bets like this and a loss would wipe out any chance of winning on that week.

Again, this has been back tested. The conclusion from these tests is a large, quick profit is less likely but it is a great plan for solid, steady, longterm growth.


2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.


www.jasonkellygolf.com
@jasonkellygolf


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