UA-33754892-1 Archives for 15 April 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Texas Open and Trophee Hassan

Texas Open - In running (after round 1)

To Win


12.48 points Pat Perez @ 60/1 (-12.48)

Player
Imp %
Books
BF
My Price
My %
Diff
£100
To Lose
Ex. V
Ryan Moore
13%
8

8
13%
1%
700
87%
4.35
Billy Horschel
10%
10

17
6%
-4%
900
94%
-40.78
Chesson Hadley
10%
10

15
7%
-3%
900
93%
-33.46
Keegan Bradley
8%
12

11
9%
0%
1100
91%
4.67
Matt Kuchar
8%
13

13
8%
0%
1200
92%
-0.03
Zach Johnson
8%
13

14
7%
-1%
1200
93%
-7.74
Brendan Steele
7%
15

14
7%
0%
1400
93%
4.92
Grayson Murray
6%
17

9
11%
5%
1600
89%
80.30
Charley Hoffman
5%
21

24
4%
-1%
2000
96%
-11.59
Brandt Snedeker
4%
26

20
5%
1%
2500
95%
29.40
Harris English
3%
29

38
3%
-1%
2800
97%
-23.74
Luke List
3%
34

55
2%
-1%
3300
98%
-38.53
Kevin Chappell
3%
34

36
3%
0%
3300
97%
-5.20
Beau Hossler
3%
34

39
3%
0%
3300
97%
-13.66
SiWoo Kim
2%
41

49
2%
0%
4000
98%
-16.78
Ollie Schniederjans
2%
41

42
2%
0%
4000
98%
-2.14
Jimmy Walker
2%
41

22
4%
2%
4000
96%
83.98
Austin Cook
2%
41

52
2%
-1%
4000
98%
-21.66
Andrew Landry
2%
41

28
4%
1%
4000
96%
44.90
Sergio Garcia
2%
51

64.2
2%
0%
5000
98%
-20.59
Ryan Palmer
2%
51

130
1%
-1%
5000
99%
-60.68
Pat Perez
2%
61

23
4%
3%
6000
96%
160.95
Dylan Frittelli
1%
67

84
1%
0%
6600
99%
-20.68
Keith Mitchell
1%
67

31
3%
2%
6600
97%
116.95
Nick Watney
1%
67

42
2%
1%
6600
98%
61.05
Aaron Baddeley
1%
71

130
1%
-1%
7000
99%
-45.31
Jim Furyk
1%
81

109
1%
0%
8000
99%
-25.39
Abraham Ancer
1%
81

68
1%
0%
8000
99%
19.34
Bill Haas
1%
91

124
1%
0%
9000
99%
-26.56
Adam Scott
1%
101

104
1%
0%
10000
99%
-2.63
Martin Laird
1%
101

122
1%
0%
10000
99%
-17.07
J.B. Holmes
1%
101

64
2%
1%
10000
98%
58.65


Trophée Hassan - In running (After round 1)


To Win


19.56 points Seungsu Han @ 25/1 (-19.56)

29.79 points Erik Van Rooyen @ 18/1 (-29.79)


Player
Books
My Price
Ex. V
Paul Dunne

23

34
-32.73

Joost Luiten

19

30
-36.54

George Coetzee

41

89
-53.69

Thomas Pieters

34

33
1.88

Alexander Levy

26

21
25.14

Andy Sullivan

41

35
16.68

Jorge Campillo

34

82
-58.64

Pablo Larrazabal

81

226
-64.11

Seungsu Han

21

9
128.31

Chris Wood

126

393
-67.95

Aaron Rai

34

33
4.02

Eddie Pepperell

151

244
-38.07

Adrian Otaegui

26

38
-31.15

Nacho Elvira

23

23
-1.51

Sam Horsfield

81

5534
-98.54

Matt Wallace

0

4452
-100

Jeunghun Wang

101

113
-10.34

Stephen Gallacher

26

50
-47.89

Thomas Detry

81

151
-46.51

Dean Burmester

81

64
26.62

Matthieu Pavon

101

352
-71.32

Renato Paratore

81

111
-27.02

Callum Shinkwin

34

40
-15.55

Robert Rock

101

891
-88.66

Erik Van Rooyen

15

6
135.66

Fabrizio Zanotti

0

827
-100

Jordan l Smith

101

219
-53.94

Alexander Bjork

151

219
-31

Benjamin Hebert

41

46
-10.33

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

41

35
18.82

Nicolas Colsaerts

41

49
-16.46







We had a terrible Masters. The gamble on established, experienced, solid bad weather players faltered as the bad weather never really turned up. The impact of the bad result was multiplied by making a mistake with the staking plan. I had manually settled a couple of bets where there was a tie in top 10 and 20 markets. This settling made the account balance correct but did not update the staking plan which saw these bets as full winners. Hence we over staked the last two weeks. Not ideal.

Let's get it back this week.

Texas Open

To Win


4.60 points Cheeson Hadley @ 40/1 (-4.60)

4.91 points Chris Kirk @ 80/1 (-4.91)

4.46 points Kevin Na @ 80/1 (-4.46)

Top 5


no bets

Top 10


no bets

Top 20


no bets


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

35.60 points Steele to beat Horschel @ 5/6 (-35.60)

25.70 points Lovemark to beat Schiederjans @ 10/11 (+23.39)

57.83 points Perez to beat Palmer @ 4/5 (+46.26)



Trophée Hassan



To Win


2.59 points Gavin Green @ 175/1 (-2.59)

Top 5


8.90 points Gavin Green @ 40/1 (-8.90)

5.88 points Jacques Kruyswijk @ 28/1 (-5.88)

Top 10


14.08 points Jacques Kruyswijk @ 12/1 (-14.08)

Top 20


20.07 points Jacques Kruyswijk @ 11/2 (-20.07)

19.34 points Jinho Choi @ 8/1 (-19.34)

19.19 points Henric Struhead @ 9/1 (-19.19)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

86.22 points Rai to beat Horsfield @ 4/5 (+68.98)

30.96 points Wallace to beat Pepperell @ 5/6 (-30.96)




2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 431.07 points


This week's P&L = -93.78
This week’s investment = 340.33 points


This week's Outright P&L = -104.02
This weeks's Outright Investment = 104.02 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +10.24
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 236.31 points



2018 Total P&L = -568.93

2018 Total Investment = 11418.73 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = +137.82
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 5279.67 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -706.68
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 6303.74 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.

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