UA-33754892-1 Archives for 14 July 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Open Championship, Round 1.

The Open - Round 1

5 pts Bill Haas @ 6/5 to beat Hanson and Fujita (+6pts)
(Tee off 14.34)


Already Advised

The Open

1.5 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 45/1 (-3pts)
1 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 110/1 (Paddy Power are top price and paying 7 places) (-2pts)
0.75 pts each way Russell Henley @ 4001 (-1.5pts)
0.5 pts each way Kevin Streelman @ 300/1 (-1pt)


Special Bets

1 pt each way Luke Donald to be First Round Leader @ 40/1 (-2pts)

1.5 pts Hideki Matsuyama to be Top Asian @ 6/1 (+9 pts)

1pt each way Jamie Donaldson top European @ 40/1. (-2pts)

2.5 pts Sergio Garcia to beat Ernie Els @ Evs. 72 Hole Match Bet. (Stan James) (+2.5 pts)

2 pts Luke Donald to beat Ernie Els @ Evs. 72 Hole Match Bet. (Coral) (-2pts)

0.3 pt Yankee. Round 1, 3 Balls. All with SkyBet (-3.3pts)
08.44 - Bubba Watson @ 9/4 to beat D. Johnson and Colsaerts
09.11 - Brandt Snedeker @ 12/5 to beat Els and Rose
09.22 - Billy Horschel @ 21/10 to beat Poulter and Bradley
09.44 - Hideki Matsuyama @ 7/2 to beat Mcilroy and Mickelson

3 pt Treble. Round 1, 3 Balls. All with Paddy Power. (-3pts)
11.55 - Boo Weekely @ 10/11 to beat Fasth and Lyle
12.06 - Marcus Fraser @ 4/5 to beat O’Meara and Forrest
14.34 - Bill Haas @ 6/5 to beat Hanson and Fujita


Antepost - The Open


0.75 pts each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1 (-1.5pts)
1.5 pts each way Sergio Garcia @ 33/1 (-3pts)


2013 running total = -97.02
pts. This week’s investment 28.8 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.
Comments

The Open Championship

Mickelson had us scared when he three putted the last from nowhere to fall into a playoff with Grace. Fortunately he regained composure and birdied the first extra to get us a winner. He won us 30 points. A Koepka birdie at the last would have seen the 80/1 chance place. A bogey was no good and cost us 2 points. Kjeldsen had a solid week in ideal conditions but not good enough. Another 1.5 points gone. In the States Knost proved 750/1 was the right price about him, -0.25 pts on the outright and another 0.25 on the first round leader. Charley Hoffman missed the cut, -2pts. Kirk played great for three rounds which saw the 66/1 chance in 4th entering the final round. He was one of very few who shot over par. Shocking. -2pts. Harris English played well but did not threaten the podium, -2pts. Keegan Bradley was really disappointing. In a weak field he never got going. With Mickelson winning and Stenson placing he could have completed some excellent doubles, but he didn’t. -1pt. All in we made 19 points on the week bringing us back to -97.02 points for the year.

The mistake from last week was this, “I am also going to put a line through Spieth as he doesn’t fit the putting and birdies profile. He is more of a long game grinder as shown last week when he could not muster a single birdie in a disappointing last round.” We have invested a fair bit into the 19 year old this year and it was a shame we were not there to capitalise when he finally broke through. Yeah, he got a little lucky at the end but his high quality consistency this year, including 6 top 10’s, shows this win was very much deserved and no fluke.

So, a big week this week and not a particularly easy one. This is the most wide open Major we have seen for some time. There are a lot of lesser names playing well and a lot of big names with question marks over them. There are two ways to look at it. Muirfield Opens have always seen the cream rise. The roll of honour is a whose who of past and present. In fact, only two of the past Champions are not in the World Golf Hall of Fame.

This backs up the theory of Muirfield being the fairest of the Open venues. The slopes are not so severe on the fairways and luck of the bounce is not as decisive. This year the rough is not as penal as previous Opens and the recent dry spell will see it play very fast and firm. The weather is set fair with only light breezes forecast, although we know this can change quickly on the coast. Even so, with two loops of 9 the wind hits you from all directions at Muirfield. This means ball strikers who can shape it both ways will have an advantage. All in though, Muirfield breeds quality Champions and these conditions should enhance the best player on the week’s chances.

Then you have the flip side. No player in the worlds top 10 at the time of the event has won an Open since Harrington in 2007. It has become fairly unpredictable. Not a good thing for us. I could never have backed Clarke or Els. Els’ Open record is unreal but the way he was playing suggested he had no chance. Does The Open offer experienced but out of form players a chance? Maybe, but there is not enough evidence to back this up.

So, who are we looking at? Well, ideally a player who prioritises accuracy over length, a player who can work the ball both ways and is in possession of a sharp shortgame. Muirfield is just over 7200 yards and good drivers of the ball will have an advantage. The challenge here is more than just the physical though. The winner will have to plan and prepare well. Manage himself, his strategy, his emotions well. And maybe, most of all, remain patient.

Woods heads the market. He was within 2 shots of the lead after 36 holes here in 2002 before posting 81 in horrible conditions on Saturday. This cost him his chance, despite a closing 65. We know Woods can dominate any course when he is on and 10/1 about a 3 time Open Champion with 4 wins this year certainly has some appeal, especially when on a course he can clearly handle. I guess the 10/1 is available as there may be a few concerns over his elbow injury and how that may have effected his preparations. Also, his poor US Open showing. The injury is a similar thing to what Justin Rose has also been suffering from. In fact, 10/1 about Woods with so many question marks over his nearest rivals is a good price. However, I am not a player. His performances in Majors have been way off of late and I just don’t fancy him to get back on track here. He may well try his conservative Hoylake tactics, a lot of irons from tees etc. But I think Woods is a better driver of the ball now than he was then. I think he thinks that too and I think he will go out to win it ‘the right way’ and take the course on, or maybe lose patience when playing it safe and making mistakes. This may not work in his favour. He is still a great putter but I am going to leave him out.

Mickelson at 20/1 is also a fair price. He looked impressive at the US Open when finishing 2nd and should have won. He also won last week on links in Scotland. Both times though he has made the winning part look hard. He does not close well when it is tight. In 2002 13 players finished within 2 shots of a 4 way playoff. It may be close again. Mickelson is a very good putter, despite commentators trying to make out it is his achilles heel. He ranks 11th in putting on the PGA Tour this year. The concern with Mickelson is if he can keep the ball in play. If he plays conservative he has a chance, if he goes after it he could come unstuck quickly.

Rose is 20/1. He is as good as anyone tee to green and is a massively underrated scrambler. My concerns are his injury and his putting. I don’t think his putting ever truly got tested at the US Open. He can work the ball as well as Woods and Mickelson but I am going to leave him alone.

Masters Champion Adam Scott should have a chance. He can be hot or cold though. When he is in rhythm he is an awesome driver of the ball, but when off can spray it. He is also a poor putter. 22/1 is not big enough for me.

Mcdowell has 3 wins and 5 missed cuts in his last 8 starts. He scrambles for fun and can chip it straight from the tee all day long. 7th in fairways, 2nd in scrambling. Surprisingly he does not have the best links record and his best finish in The Open was a tie for 5th last year, where he had a decent chance to win. I can not believe he is going to go off a bigger price for this (25/1) than the US Open but I am going to leave him out.

Rory and Westwood are two players who are very hard to back now. Rory just seems to be going the wrong way and Westwood has just started work with Sean Foley and has made some big changes.

I like Luke Donald. He will be hungry for retribution after choking at the US Open but that will have given him a taster and he has a decent Open record. 5th in ’09, 11th in ’10, mc in ’11 and 5th in ’12. He is hitting it straighter than ever this year, which isn’t too hard as he does spray it, and his short game and putting are always brilliant. I would take the 33/1 on offer but watching him melt late on at Merion is off putting.

Others who have to be considered are Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Bubba Watson.

Stenson is in strong form and as I have said before, is a transformed, accurate player. 8th in driving accuracy and 3rd in greens. He also has a decent Open record. 3rd in ’08, 13th in ’09 and 3rd again in ’10. He showed his form last week in Scotland. A couple of late mistakes cost him. 45/1 is an ok price but his putting concerns me. He is missing a few short ones and ranks 114th in the stat, partly due to the large number of greens he hits. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get involved but I am going to leave him out.

Schwartzel always seems to come in under the radar. He played great in the US Open before feeling the heat on the final day. He has 3 top 25’s at The Open and 3 top 15’s in his last 4 starts. Since the end of 2012 he has been a machine. He was very close to getting picked at 40/1 but his rank of 150th in scrambling is off putting.

Matt Kuchar has won twice this year and is accuracy and consistency personified. 50/1 looks big for a class player, one who should maybe be 3rd or 4th in the betting, but it is his Open record that holds him back. He has only made 2 cuts in 8 starts and looked pretty average in France a couple of weeks ago.

Jim Furyk loves a tough test. He loves a battle. He should love this. 100/1 looks big. The downside is he only ranks in the top 50 in 1 of the major stats. Fortunately this is in scoring but he does not look the player he was.

Bubba Watson is an incredible price here. 100/1 about a player who rarely starts bigger than 33/1 in the States. He is in decent form and finished 30th and 23rd in The Open the last two years. He works the ball as well as anyone. The downsides are he ranks 151st in scrambling and looks like he has the yips on occasion. 100/1 is big but I am going to resist.

So who are we going to back? Well, we already have Garcia at 33/1 and Koepka at 150/1. Garcia is still my strong fancy for this. Statistically he is bang on, including a rank of 1 in putting and 4th in scoring. He also controls his flight very well. He has 7 top 10’s in The Open and finished 8th here in 2002. He owns an incredible 18 top 20’s in his last 21 starts worldwide which includes one withdrawal, when heading for another top 20. I like him and I just hope he likes himself this week! 33/1 is still available with Ladbrokes. Koepka played well last week, this is a huge ask, but there are worse 150/1 chances and he is now available at 175/1 in a couple of places. I am not sure how that works, 150/1 to 175/1 for finishing 11th last week? Strange when nobody has really contracted in the market.

Brandt Snedeker is my first pick for this week. 40/1 is a good price about a big game player who can control his ball and ranks 5th in the field in greens in regulation and putting combined. He gets himself ready. I think 6th at The Masters, 8th at The Players and 17th at the US Open shows this. He also tied the 36 hole Open scoring record last year, where he went 40 holes bogey free before finishing 3rd. All his stats are solid. He uses stats a lot to pick events in which to play, what to practice, to find out what he needs to do better. He is definitely in the staking plan, he has served his apprenticeship and he is due.

Billy Horschel is my next pick. 8th in ball striking, 11th in scoring, 23rd in putting and 9th in the all round. This is his first Open but looking at the way he coped with his first US Open this should not be too much of a problem. He is seriously passionate and motivated and 110/1 looks big to me. The 125/1 available at the start of the week did not last long.

Russell Henley also gets in. He ranks 9th in the field in driving accuracy and putting combined, he is a winner this year and in form. Therefore 400/1 looks too big. He is an Open virgin but has won as a rookie first time out as a member on the US Tour. He is a nice fit for this, and although more of a value play, gets in the staking plan.

Last up is Kevin Streelman at 300/1 is too big about a winner on the PGA Tour this year. He has one missed cut in one start at The Open and has been in poor form of late. He did, however, open up with two 66’s last week before a quiet weekend. Again, a value play but worth a shot at the price.

I guess it is clear from the picks I have gone away from the Muirfield pattern of churning out the cream and more towards the pattern of non top 10 players but in a wide open Open it is tough to not stick to value plays.


The Open

1.5 pts each way Brandt Snedeker @ 45/1
1 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 110/1 (Paddy Power are top price and paying 7 places)
0.75 pts each way Russell Henley @ 4001
0.5 pts each way Kevin Streelman @ 300/1


Special Bets

1 pt each way Luke Donald to be First Round Leader @ 40/1

1.5 pts Hideki Matsuyama to be Top Asian @ 6/1

1pt each way Jamie Donaldson top European @ 40/1.

2.5 pts Sergio Garcia to beat Ernie Els @ Evs. 72 Hole Match Bet. (Stan James)

2 pts Luke Donald to beat Ernie Els @ Evs. 72 Hole Match Bet. (Coral)

0.3 pt Yankee. Round 1, 3 Balls. All with SkyBet
08.44 - Bubba Watson @ 9/4 to beat D. Johnson and Colsaerts
09.11 - Brandt Snedeker @ 12/5 to beat Els and Rose
09.22 - Billy Horschel @ 21/10 to beat Poulter and Bradley
09.44 - Hideki Matsuyama @ 7/2 to beat Mcilroy and Mickelson

3 pt Treble. Round 1, 3 Balls. All with Paddy Power.
11.55 - Boo Weekely @ 10/11 to beat Fasth and Lyle
12.06 - Marcus Fraser @ 4/5 to beat O’Meara and Forrest
14.34 - Bill Haas @ 6/5 to beat Hanson and Fujita


Already Advised
Antepost - The Open


0.75 pts each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1
1.5 pts each way Sergio Garcia @ 33/1


2013 running total = -97.02
pts. This week’s investment 23.8 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.





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