UA-33754892-1 Archives for 14 August 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Czech Open and Wyndham Championship

There was a lot of moaning and groaning throughout the USPGA last week. Commentators and the media complaining there were no big names in contention and the atmosphere was flat for a Major. But I think we had a great Major, second only to The Masters. The golf media see golf in such a weird way. The eventual champion Keegan Bradley and third round leader Brandon Steele have both won on tour in their debut seasons however the media make out we have two shock contenders and therefore the course is no good and the event is a shambles. The media have made Rickie Fowler a superstar before his time. He is a great player but he has never won. Both Bradley and Steele are proven winners, Fowler is not. The media forget that inevitably it is the players that make themselves stars and not the hype they create. Every star has to start somewhere so they have to be ‘nobodies’ at some point.

The other thing that became apparent as the week went on was how the best ranked players in the world struggle when they are asked to drive the ball straight. Too many of the regular courses do not reward accuracy as there is no real punishment in being wide. When these players are asked to keep it straight they don’t make it look easy. Hence some lesser names came to the fore as they were finally rewarded for straight hitting. That was the only clue in trying to pick the eventual winner, Bradley is ranked 10th in total driving.

Our guys did ok last week. Both Watney and Mahan looked ready to make a move on the final day. Entering the round they were both in good positions just outside the top 10. Both got off to strong starts but did not keep the momentum and tailed off. Toms played some of the best golf of the week in spells. His back nine of 30 on day 3 was quite incredible. He finished in a tie for fifth giving us a return for a faith in the former champion. Simpson was the big disappointment of the week. He was the guy I thought most likely to bring home the bacon. Instead he missed the cut. Our 72 hole match bet accumulator won for the second week in a row winning 10.8 points. Our yankee had a double in it to win 1pt. We ended the week up 9.25 points or £92.50 to a £10 stake. 2011 tally rallies to a 171.21 points profit or £1712.10 to a £10 stake. Nice.

Ok, this week two poor fields have assembled. One in North Carolina and the other in the Czech Republic.

I could easily sit out this week as it is fairly uninspiring. In the Wyndham Championship you are looking at an interesting match up. You have got some in form young guns against some out of form established players. The young guns are dominating the market. Nearly all in good form but unproven. The types of player who are a lovely punt at 100/1 but because of the weakness of the field and the poor form of the established players they are going off at 20/1-50/1. How many people at the start of the season would have predicted that in a small US Tour event you could back Els at 70/1, Harrington 66/1, Goosen 66/1, Casey 80/1, Stenson 80/1, Leonard 125/1, Singh 125/1, whilst names like Simpson are 20/1, Bill Haas 20/1 and De Jonge 33/1? Not many and if they did you would not have believed them. But the prices are correct. There is an army of young underrated Americans coming through. They have been overshadowed by the Europeans this past year but they are slowly starting to show their colours. None more so than Keegan Bradley last week.

Having said that the reason some of the established players are teeing up this week is in a last ditch attempt to get into the top 125 of the FedEx standings and in turn qualifying for the playoffs. At least you now they will be trying even if they are drastically out of form. This makes them of some interest in a weak field at good prices.

I like Webb Simpson, Chris Couch and David Toms. Others who I considered were Els, Harrington, Atwal, Singh, De Jonge, Snedeker and Bill Haas.

Els, despite being a great price has to be avoided at the moment. This course is easy and scoring is going be lights out on the par 70. Els is one of the worst putters on the planet at the moment. He has lost all instinct and looks so uncomfortable. He cannot keep up with the scoring. I wanted to be with him because he needs a big week. He sits 126 on the FedEx list but I can’t see him turning it around in one week when he has struggled the whole year. Harrington is another who is a long way away. He has lost the plot. Splitting with long time coach Bob Torrance and has been seen practicing Happy Gilmore style. His ball striking stats are disgusting. He is a player who can putt his way into contention but the 66/1 does not tempt me. Atwal is the defending champion and he can really putt. 150/1 is a good price but he has not shown enough to really be considered a runner. He will need a big bit of ‘horses for courses’ to win again.

The Zimbabwean Brendon De Jonge is a player I like when the scoring goes deep. He makes birdies for fun. 33/1 is short enough though. Snedeker is considered as he is an excellent putter but has not really contended since the Buick which makes the 25/1 on offer laughable. Bill Haas has been impressive of late and I have tipped him a few times this year. He has good course form which includes a 62 on route to a T10 in 2009. However this year it has been all about his long game. For me he is in the top five ball strikers on tour and drives it great. This helped him to a T12 last week. He is part of the new bread of young Americans but the son of Jay is too short at 22/1. He showed his minerals by getting into a playoff a couple of weeks ago but the price is just too short.

I am going to make a small play on Vijay Singh though. He has had problems with injury which has really limited his appearances over the last few months. In fact since the end of May he has only played four events which read T37, T43, W/D and a MC last week. However I fancy him to show a bit more here. It is a speculative punt as we know he is not a great putter, ranked 140th in strokes gained putting. I just fancy him to go well at a big price, 125/1.

Webb Simpson is the well fancied favourite this week. Rightly so despite his surprise missed cut last week. He is an excellent golfer and I can see why he is being supported. 20/1 is short though for someone who has never won and is coming off a mc. There will be better weeks to back him than this. I will pass. Toms ticks all the boxes here. He has finished in the top 10 the last two weeks and is perhaps the second best putter in the world at the moment (to Stricker). He hits fairways (ranked 4th), greens (ranked 2nd) and makes birdies (ranked 8th with 4.10 per round). This has helped him to six top 10’s in 17 starts including a win at the Byron Nelson and a playoff loss at The Players. The one concern is how much last weeks efforts took out of him. 12/1 is short enough but certainly tempting.

Chris Couch is going to get the nod again. I have tipped him a lot but he still shows a profit for us. He is 4th in total driving and 9th in birdie average. I like him when the scoring goes low and he is a good bet at 80/1.

The Czech Open is zzzzzzzz, ooops sorry I dropped off again just looking at it! There is little quality in this field but it is competitive with no fewer than 37 players under 100/1. Anyone who has shown anything this year is a short price. Nine of the holes they are playing this week are new so there is no real course form. Jimenez designed it and is the 18/1 favourite. From all accounts he has been hitting the flags out for the last two weeks (WGC at Firestone and in the USPGA) but struggled to convert the chances due to a cold putter. He has switched to an Answer 5 after using the iPing app and has looked good in practice. I think he is worth a small play. The other is Soren Hansen. He is 28/1 and finished 5th in Ireland a few weeks ago. It looks as though one of the best ball strikers in Europe has put some nasty tax problems behind him. If so, and if he is anywhere near the form he showed 2 years ago he is good value at 28/1. Two big ‘ifs’ but IF I am right he is worth a play.

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Czech Open

2 pts win Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 18/1
1pt each way Soren Hansen @ 28/1

Wyndham Championship

3 pts win David Toms @ 12/1
1pt each way Chris Couch @ 80/1
0.5 pts each way Vijay Singh @ 125/1

Special Bets

0.5 pts each way double David Toms @ 12/1 and Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 18/1
0.5 pts each way double Bill Haas @ 22/1 and Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 18/1
0.5 pts each way double Webb Simpson @ 20/1 and Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 18/1

2011 running total +172.21 pts This weeks investment 13 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.