UA-33754892-1 Archives for 14 April 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Trophee Hassan II

Trophée Hassan II - In running after round 2

To Win

0.25 units Sean Crocker @ 10/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Julian Suri @ 7/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Dimi Papadatos @ 30/1 (-0.25)




Trophée Hassan II

Pretty busy so will be brief. No US golf this week as the Zurich is a team event and I have no interest.

Royal Golf Dar Salam's Red Course hosts the Trophee Hassan II this week. At 7557 yards it is a long test of ball striking. I played here in 2016 or 17, I was a big fan of the Robert Trent Jones design. You have to drive it good, good iron play is rewarded and one has plenty of midirons on this course (it was sodden when I played and we had rain delays throughout the week). The poa greens are pretty subtle and are not easy to read. Long hitters have an edge if they can be accurate, good iron players should litter the leaderboard on Sunday evening.

I like a young Austrian player, who has not played at this level before, to have a good week. Hurly Long has a brilliant name as well as a strong game. On various mini tours he has racked up finishes of 29-9-2-4-7-11-3-3. And yes, this is a huge step up but he has game and confidence. He can outrun his price of 500/1, and bigger on the machine.

Elsewhere I have picked ball strikers at big prices to get involved. John Catlin ranks highly in all the ball striking stats. 33/1 a top 10 and 11/1 a top 20 appear very fair. He hasn't been in great form but finished 6th 4 starts ago. Worth chancing.

David Borda drives it well and has putted well. He has had 5 weeks to get ready for this. 22/1 a top 20 looks generous on a course that should work for him.

Jack Singh Brar hits it straight, a good asset to have here. He played very well on the Challenge Tour last year and the young Englishman can take this opportunity to really kick off his season. JB Hansen is similar, he has not been great but has been making cuts. This is not the strongest field and he is not the best tee to green but 6/1 a top 20 is too big not to bet.

Adri Arnaus will love this. He is long and has a strong all around game. This year his approach work is up there with the best, normally it is his putting and short game that make him a danger. If he clicks he can win, he fits the profile well but 11/4 a top 20 is good value and more realistic. The books have learned about him unfortunately and the fancy prices don't appear so often about the Spaniard.



Trophée Hassan II

To Win

0.25 units Hurly Long @ 500/1 (-0.25)


Top 5

1.25 units Hurly Long @ 100/1 (-1.25)


Top 10

2.5 units Hurly Long @ 33/1 (-2.5)
1.25 units John Catlin @ 33/1 (-1.25)

Top 20

4.5 units Hurly Long @ 16/1 (-4.5)
2 units John Catlin @ 11/1 (-2)
1.75 units David Borda @ 22/1 (-1.75)
1.75 units Jack Singh Brar @ 13/2 (-1.75)
1.5 units JB Hansen @ 6/1 (-1.5)
1.25 units Adri Arnaus @ 11/4 (-1.25)

First Round Leader

no bet


72 Hole Match Bet (Betfair Sportsbook, tie no bet)

2.5 units Matthias Schwab to bt Romain Langasque @ 11/10 (+2.75)




This week's P&L = -16
This week’s investment = 21.25 units


This week's Outright P&L = -18 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 18 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +2
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 3.25 units



2019 Total P&L = +63.78 units

2019 Total Investment = 318 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +51.6 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 258.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +12.18 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 103.75 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

Comments

RBC Heritage

RBC Heritage Day 4 18 Hole Matches

1.5 units Noren to bt Malnati @ 1.83 (-1.5)
1 unit Berger to bt Hoffman @ 2.4 (+1.4)
1.5 units Grillo to bt Mullinax @ 1.83 (-1.5)



RBC Heritage

It was a busy week last week, so just the selections this week.



RBC Heritage

To Win

0.75 units Dustin Johnson @ 8/1 (-0.75)
0.25 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 25/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Webb Simpson @ 28/1 (-0.25)



Top 5

1.75 units Dustin Johnson@ 2/1 (-1.75)
1 unit Webb Simpson @ 6/1 (-1)
1 unit Tommy Fleetwood @ 11/2 (-1)


Top 10

1.5 units Webb Simpson @ 3/1 (-1.5)
1 unit Tommy Fleetwood @ 11/4 (-1)

Top 20

2.75 units Webb Simpson @ 6/4 (+1.3)
1.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 13/10 (-1.75)
1.5 units Justin Harding @ 9/2 (-1.5)

First Round Leader

no bet


72 Hole Match Bet (Betfair Sportsbook, tie no bet)

2.75 units Simpson to beat Kisner @ 4/5 (+2.2)
1.25 units Leishman to beat Kokrak @ 5/6 (-1.25)





This week's P&L = -10.1
This week’s investment = 19 units


This week's Outright P&L = -9.45 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 11 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -0.65
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 8 units



2019 Total P&L = +79.78 units

2019 Total Investment = 296.75 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +69.6 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 240.5 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +10.18 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 100.5 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.

Comments