UA-33754892-1 Archives for 14 April 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

RBC Heritage 72 Hole Match Bet

Having looked through the 1st round 3 balls and the 72 hole match bets there are a couple of things that look like they makes sense. Firstly is to try and profit again out of Kaymer’s current poor form. For those with Betfair accounts you can lay him in his 3 ball at 6/4 against Russell Henley and Scott Brown. Henley is a very tidy player who’s form has been solid, a good putter. Brown is not in as good form but this course is similar to Puerto Rico where he won earlier this year. You could also oppose him on the spreads where Kaymer is 1-4 favourite against both.

The second play that looks like value is siding with Bill Haas in a 72 hole match bet. He is 10/11 to beat Zach Johnson with Ladbrokes and Evs to beat Bo Van Pelt with Bet Victor and Sporting Bet. Zach Johnson has not been playing well but this venue should really suit him so I am going to take BVP on with Haas. BVP has been solid enough tee to green this year but his putting has been awful and his short game very mediocre. You have to putt good at Harbour Town and the greens are tiny so you will have to get it up and down. BVP ranks 162nd in scrambling, 160th in putting and 155th in scoring. Haas is solid all around and was almost an outright pick this week. 33rd in ball striking, 12th in scrambling, 61st in putting and 40th in scoring. He is a better all round player right now and should beat BVP over 72 holes. By the way, Zach Johnson’s stats are awful so if you want to take him on twice I wouldn’t blame you. Zach ranks 102 in ball striking, 141 in scrambling, 158 in putting and 153 in scoring. The only reason I am taking on BVP instead of Zach is the recent form at the venue. Zach finished 2nd last year while BVP has two missed cuts here the last two years.

72 Hole Match Bet

3 pts Bill Haas to beat Bo Van Pelt @ Evs (BetVictor and Sportingbet) (+3pts)


(Already Advised)


RBC Heritage

5 pts win Brandt Snedeker @ 14/1 (-5pts)
0.5 pts each way Chris Kirk @ 80/1 (-1pt)
1 pt each way Brian Stuard @ 125/1(-2pts)
0.75 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 50/1 (-1.5pts)

Open De Espana

1 pt each way Pablo Larazabal @ 25/1 (-2pts)

Special

1pt each way double Sergio Garcia 13/2 and Brandt Snedeker @ 14/1 (-2pts)

2013 running total = -80.05 pts. This week’s investment 16.5 points. This weeks P&L = -10.5 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments

RBC Heritage and Open de Espana

Another close call and another tough result to swallow but what a great Masters and I am very happy the green jacket went to a very worthy champion in Adam Scott. There was plenty of controversy during the week which kind of covered up the fact that nobody really set the event alive with a run of great golf. The tournament only really came to life over the last few holes. I did have a long look at Adam Scott and Cabrera before the event. Cabrera was third in all time earnings at The Masters going into it and played well in Houston. Scott ranked 4th in scrambling and 2nd in scoring. They were the only clues.

Our runners did ok. Stenson never really sniffed landing the 1st round lead and cost us 1pt. Russell Henley got off to a decent start for a debutant, shooting level on day 1 before imploding on the front 9 in the wind on day 2. Stricker was 5 over through 10 on day 1 and arguably played the best golf for the rest of the week. Perhaps between him, Watney and an ever more impressive Thorbjorn Olesen. He kept coming back into contention before making a late mistake. He doubled 16 on day 2 and 18 on day 3. They killed him. He is still a very strong player despite being 46 and part time.

Garcia lost his heart and his head. Dr Sergio and Mr Garcia both made multiple appearances. If only he wanted it and believed in him as much as we do. He is now a defeatist and hard to fancy on a big occasion. He has the ability but if you keep talking your chances down it is only a matter of time until you start believing it. Snedeker was the most likely winner entering day 4. He was leading greens in regulation for the week and fairways hit. Possibly the 2nd or 3rd best putter on the planet right now surely could not go wrong with stats like that? Well, he did and I can’t help but blaming the rain a little. The course slowed up, the greens slowed up and he likes it fast. He never got any momentum going and a final hole bogey meant we did not get paid, unless you took the 6 places a few bookies were offering. Pretty gutting as Garcia and Stricker looked like they could challenge for a place on the final day and failed and Snedeker looked nailed on for a place at the very worst. Oh well, at least we know we are still doing the right things. Surely just a matter of time? …. oh yeah, and resources!

With the match bets we were unlucky in our opening day 4 timer. Els had a good finish to beat the slow starting Stricker to beat the bet. Stricker did beat Poulter in our 72 holes match bet. Poulter really does not like stroke play events in the States. Garrigus fought hard to beat Kaymer in our day 3 match before faltering to an average Bredan Grace on the final day. All in we lost 4.3 points on the week moving us further behind, now -80.05 points behind for the year.

Finally we get to enjoy one of the few European events in Europe. The Open de Espana. 1 of the 7 events on the European Tour that has lasted the test of time and has been played every year since 1972 when the Tour was established, the Spanish Open is now in its 87th edition. It will also be Jimenez’s 26th national Open and 599th European Tour start. It is the 4th time Parador de El Saler has hosted with Langer (’84 and ’89) and Robert Karlsson (’01) winning the previous three.

Garcia at 6/1, 13/2 in a few places, is a worthy favourite. He likes events like this that don’t take too much winning. He likes being a big fish. 13/2 probably won’t last all that long and I don’t blame people for backing him as there are not too many he has to beat. Fernandez-Castano has been in great form in the States and if he is still in the mood after a long week at The Masters (played with Woods on day 3) he can go well. Try not to be fooled by the commentators too much about him, he ranks 19th in putting in the States and 103rd in ball striking on the US Tour. 165th in greens in regulation. Hardly the Hoganesque ball striking and putting like Langer in a slump they would have you believe. He is 18/1 which is fair. Francessco Molinari is 22/1, 25/1 in a place and has not been his usual steady self this year. He defends this week but at a different course. It is a short course which suits but I’d rather back his brother at 50/1.

All in there is nothing too flashy going on in Spain. The one I quite like the look of is Pablo Larrazabal. He has been playing some nice stuff of late. 17th in the Avantha Masters, 6th in the Malaysian Open and 4th in the Trophee Hassan. He has rededicated himself this year to a tough fitness regime and nobody will be more up for this than him. He is rested unlike the market leaders and if he putts half decent and keeps his head on he can go close. He finished 2nd last year and 3rd the year before. He won’t be scared. 25/1 is worth an interest.

Now I think the best bet so far this year is on in the States this week. The event is the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. I have won around here. I had 6 birdies and 3 bogies on the front 9 on the final day. But no, sadly, the best bet of the year is not me, I didn’t get a start despite the letters, emails, phone calls etc!

Here is what I think. To win here you got to hit it pretty straight. There is way bigger premium on accuracy than power. A lot of the holes you have to be on the correct side of fairways to have a good look at the green. There is a lot of strategy involved and you have to be precise. If you look at the past winners you will see a combination of great putters and greens in regulation fiends. Baddeley (great putter), Weekley (great ball striker), Gay (great putter), Furyk (greens in reg man, accurate and solid putter), Snedeker (great putter and green finder) and Pettersson (putter). Last year Pettersson ranked 1st in birdies, 3rd in bogey avoidance, 1st in greens and 1st in putting. Zach Johnson finished 2nd and was 7th in driving accuracy, 13th in greens in reg and 2nd in putting. Knost was 3rd, 7th in greens 4th in putting. Matt Every lead scrambling and finished 10 behind. He was still 36th in greens in reg. Basically, what I am saying is many weeks you can scramble wins. It is hard to do it here. You have to hit greens and you have to putt good. These greens are the smallest on Tour and if you hit them you are going to have a good look at birdie. Great course.

Ok, so who are the contenders? Furyk has a great record here and will be targeting this event. He always looks at the shorter courses as chances where he can win as a short hitter and builds his schedule around this. Despite his record here and a decent performance last week at Augusta I don’t like the look of 18/1. He ranks 75th in greens and 73rd in putting. Although he is sure to improve on that around here he does need to improve a lot and the price is not for me.

Kuchar is also 18/1 and one would think this would suit him. Last year he finished with a 77 after making double on the 3rd and bogeying 7,8,9,10,11,13 and 16. He does not rank inside the top 100 in any ball striking stat this season. 153rd overall in ball striking, 135th in driving accuracy, 128th in distance and 116th in greens in reg. Another one who needs to improve a lot to win but played ok last week.

Donald ranks 148th in distance, 78th in accuracy, 145th overall from the tee, 168th in greens hit and 169th in ball striking. That normally does not worry me with Donald as he putts so well but this season it is not saving him, ranking 78th in that department. You have to take him on here. He putted poorly last week too and 16/1 is a poor price.

Jason Day would have to be seen as a danger if still in the mood after a big week. I think he will run a little flat though. It must have taken a lot out of him. The Masters was his with two to play. He admitted the pressure got to him but it was a strong reminder of the young Australian’s huge ability and potential. However, other courses will set up much better for him than this. 151 in driving accuracy and 129th in greens in regulation is not good enough to get it done here although the 25/1 will be sure to get some interest you would think.

Boo Weekley is a two time winner here and finished 6th here last year when drastically out of form. 1st in ’07, 1st in ’08, 13th in ’11, 12th in ’10, 6th in ’12 shows he is a real horse for this course. This is because he is the ball striking king. Leads that stat nearly every year and is currently 4th this season. He ranks 7th in total driving and 9th in greens which gives him a decent shot again. However, 103rd in scrambling and 169th in putting suggests if it does go wrong it is going to go wrong very quickly. There is early money for him taking the 50’s and now best price 40/1 and a general 33/1. Not for me at that price.

There are three players at the same price that I really like and a case can be made for each. Bill Haas (50/1) has 5 top 10’s this year thanks to the combination of 6th in greens in regulation and 12th in scrambling. However, he does not make many birdies and is 81st in driving accuracy. A 27th and a 30th are his best finishes here and is tempting but probably best left alone. Charles Howell III is also 50/1 and ranks 12th in putting and 42nd in greens which is the sort of combination we are looking for. Add to that 4 top 10’s, 9th in scoring, 2nd in scrambling and 19th in birdies he starts to look a serious prospect. However, he ranks 183rd in driving accuracy and you can’t get away with that around here. That’s why a couple of top 25’s and a 12th in 2008 is as good as it has been for ‘Chucky 3 Sticks’ here.

The 50/1 chance I like is Billy Horschel. He ranks 31st in driving accuracy, 23rd in putting and 57th in greens. It is not unreal but an awful lot better than most of these. In fact he ranks 9th in the field in greens in regulation and putting combined. 12th in total driving adds fuel to the fire and he has made more birdies on Tour this year than anyone. It is his debut here and he ranks 126th in scrambling which are my only concerns. However, he has gone close a couple of times this year and has the taste. He is worth backing at 50/1.

Another bet is Brian Stuard. He is cracking value at 125/1. He is a great fit for this and has 3 top 10’s already this season. 30th in driving accuracy, 42nd in greens in regulation, 16th in putting (6th in putting and greens combined), 11th in scoring and 23rd in scrambling. He is well worth having on side this week.

Chris Kirk has been a dilemma for me here. He could be anything this week. He has a shocking record here and one has to imagine ranking 120th in greens in regulation is not going to help turn this around in a hurry. But the rest of his stats are too good to ignore. 6th in putting, 3rd in eagles, 7th in birdies, 7th in scoring, 8th in scrambling and 80/1. I have to be with him at the price. He ranks 33rd in the field in greens and putting combined but he is too good a price to ignore.

The best bet of the year so far has to be Brandt Snedeker here. He looks to have this field like Tiger has them at Bay Hill. He is a past winner and over the last 6 months, or a bit longer, since tearing up the opening 36 at The Open where he shot 66,64, he has been heads and shoulders above all of these. He won the FedEx Cup whilst winning the Tour Champs. He also finished 2nd at The Barclays in the playoffs. He finished 3rd in Hawaii, 2nd in the Farmers Insurance, 2nd in Phoenix, 1st at Pebble and finished a disappointing 6th last week. He is 14/1. I’d make him no bigger than 8/1 is this field. Check out these stats. If he plays to them he will win by 10! 9th in driving accuracy, 4th in greens, 11th in putting, 1st in birdies and 6th in scoring. He is so far clear in my rankings it is sick and easily boasts the best form. If it were not for last week’s disappointment I could go a little crazy on him and lump on each way. There is a concern but he is a bubbly, energetic character and he can bounce back. After all he does rank number 1 in the bounce back stat too! If you are going to have one bet this season on golf you should make it Snedeker this week.

There is always a risk with being bullish like this. But I do think he is a good thing. His rib seemed to offer no issues to him last week. Lets see……

If you are trading on Betfair or want an interesting one for a match bet then Richard Sterne could be a little under the radar here. He was solid last week at Augusta and was in ravishing form at the start of the season. This course will play a little like Pretoria Country Club where he has a great record. I don’t think he will cut it if he gets in the mix but I do think he can get in the mix. I say that as not many foreign players win on their first chance in the US.


RBC Heritage

5 pts win Brandt Snedeker @ 14/1
0.5 pts each way Chris Kirk @ 80/1
1 pt each way Brian Stuard @ 125 /1
0.75 pt each way Billy Horschel @ 50/1

Open De Espana

1 pt each way Pablo Larazabal @ 25/1

Special

1pt each way double Sergio Garcia 13/2 and Brandt Snedeker @ 14/1

2013 running total = -80.05 pts. This week’s investment 13.5 points. This weeks P&L =

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments

The Masters Final Day

Just one match bet for today. I have not backed Garrigus the last two days because of how good he is. More the weakness in his opponent. I like him to beat Grace today @ 6/5.

Once they have finished we can focus on the leaders and cheer Snedeker home. Hopefully either Stricker or Garcia can sneak through for a place. I don’t know why I feel so optimistic today…. must be because the sun is out for a change!

Enjoy.

The Masters - Final Day 2 balls

2.5 pts Garrigus to beat Grace @ 6/5 (-2.5pts)

(Already advised)

The Masters - 3rd round 2 balls

4 pts Garrigus to beat Kaymer @ 5/4 (13/10 with youwin) (+5 pts)

The Masters - 72 hole matches

2 pts Stricker to beat Poulter @ 11/10 (+2.2 pts)

The Masters - 1st round 3 balls

1 pt accumulator Henley to bt Gay and Mize @ evs, Bubba Watson to beat Poulter and Fox @ 11/10, Woods to beat Donald and Piercy @ 18/19, Stricker to beat Els and Watney @ 7/4 (-1pt)

The Masters


1.5 pts each way Steve Stricker @ 66/1 (-3 pts)
0.5 pts each way Russell Henley @ 175/1 (-1pt)
1 pt each way Sergio Garcia @ 45/1 (-2 pts)
1 pt each way Brant Snedeker @ 40/1 (-2 pts)

The Masters - Specials

0.5 pts each way Henrik Stenson @ 55/1 to be first round leader. (-1pt)


2013 running total = -75.75 pts. This week’s investment 16 points. This weeks P&L = (-5.3 pts)

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments