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Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship Day 3

BMW Championship round 3 balls.

0.5pt 4 folds and a 0.5pt Accumulator (3 points total)

16.11 Casey @ 13/8 to beat Tringale and Mahan
17.06 Rose @ 11/8
to beat Bradley and Watney
17.17 Stenson @ 5/4
to beat Kuchar and De Jonge
17.50 Spieth @ Evs to beat Thomas and Na
18.01 Day @ 4/5
to beat Todd and Berger



(Already advised)


BMW Championship

3 points win Jordan Spieth @ 12/1

0.75 points each way Jason Bohn @ 125/1


2015 running total =  -145.81 points. This week’s investment 4.5 points. This weeks P&L = -7.5 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments

BMW Championship

After a week off the 70 players who remain in the FedEx Cup Playoffs return to Lake Forest, Illinois, just North of Chicago, for the BMW Championship at the Conway Farms Golf Club.

The 7149 yard Tom Fazio course that hosted the 2013 edition has been lengthened by 49 yards. That's not the only change. The greens have been changed to bent grass, there are 6 new bunkers that come into play from the tee and a number of other bunkers have been made deeper. The two holes that have changed the most length wise are the par 4 fourth which was already 485 yards and the par 3 17th, which was already 207 yards. They raked 4th and 5th toughest in 2013, strange holes to change.

Zach Johnson won in 2013 with a 16 under total. However few people remember this, most remember the event for Jim Furyk's incredible 59. I say incredible as it was statistically the best ball striking round in history, the scoring average in that 2nd round was 0.086 strokes over the par of 71 and the next best score was 65. Furyk finished -13 for the week in 3rd.

It's easy to see the similarities in these two players who enjoyed their weeks at Conway Farms. Both are short, straight hitters, excellent wedge players, whose real strengths are accuracy and grinding. When they putt well they contend. The rest of the top 10 included Watney (-14), Day (-11), Donald (-11), Striker (-11), Mahan (-11), Matt Jones (-10), Schwartzel (-10) and Snedeker (-10). Generally we are looking at the shorter hitters with excellent wedge games. Amazingly, out of the 27 of the golfers who finished in the top 25 that week, 21 are back this week.

These top 10 players registered a scoring average a smidgeon over 68 and a driving distance of just 267 yards for the week. They averaged 19.4 birdies for the 72 holes and 6.8 bogies. 73% of fairways and 68% of greens shows the emphasis put on accuracy over power from the tee, but making the approach shots a little tougher. The field averaged just 274 yards from the tee. Another reason to put power on the back burner this week is the fact there are only 3 par 5s and they played to an average of just 0.2 under par for the week. That's a gain of just 2.4 shots per player for the week. The bombers don't milk these par 5s.

My top 10 players for this week, with my prices in brackets, are Day 15/2 (9/1), Spieth 12/1 (9/1), Stenson 12/1 (18/1), Watson 22/1 (20/1), Rose 25/1 (25/1), Matsuyama 40/1 (33/1), Koepka 40/1 (33/1), Fowler 16/1 (33/1) and Kuchar 35/1 (35/1).

Day obviously is playing great and finished 4th here in 2013. He complained about being understandably tired at the Deutsche Bank, where he still finished 12th despite this tiredness and a poor putting week. The week off will have done him the world of good and any player who has won 3 of his last 5 has to be highly respected, especially with the size of events he has won. However, Day is not the straightest, even when the driver is left in the bag he isn't that accurate. He ranks 167th in driving accuracy. I think 15/2 is short enough on a course that doesn't play to his strengths and winds forecast on Thursday.

Spieth, despite coming off of two missed cuts is my best bet this week. At the Deutsche Bank he lost 4.4 shots putting and at The Barclays he lost 6.2 shots tee to green. He dropped 14 shots at Plainfield CC (The Barclays) and 11 at TPC Boston (D Bank) which doesn't fill one with confidence, but he is the master of getting his preparations right. He's a genius at working on the right things and implementing. A week with his coach, ironing out a few flaws and clearing his head should see him primed once again for this week. He will see this as a big week, he needs to get back in position to have a good chance to win the FedEx at East Lake next week. This course sets up perfectly for him. He finished 16th here in 2013 and how much has he improved and achieved since then?? He is pretty accurate from the tee and won't have to force things with his driver around here. He is the best wedge player and mid length putter in this field and that should put him in the perfect position to make the 20 or so birdies he will need to win this week, as well as limiting his mistakes.

Stenson is obviously in strong form coming off the back of two second place finishes in a row, and fourth second place in 13 starts. It really feels like he is going to go one of two ways. In 2013 he went through a similar spell where he could have won everything throughout the summer and then did when clinching the FedEx Cup. Other times he has come close, become frustrated and blown up. It is tough to predict if he is going to dominate this week or not feature. It suits his accurate play and there is nothing not to like about his chances. He is in great form and his overall game is excellent. 1st in greens in regulation and total strokes gained. Having said this I would still rather see him nearer the 20/1 price than the 12/1 on offer. He only managed 11 birdies here in 2013 when he was playing as well, if not better than he is now. He finished 33rd.

Bubba is a great player and 22/1 is a fair price but this course does not set up so well for him. He has a strong record at the Travellers, which is another short course, but there will be better times to bet Bubba than this. He finished a steady and solid 24th here in 2013, and did have a go at the course then, but I am not sure his patience will last this week. When you see the wedge players and putters like Furyk, Zach, Donald, Striker etc topping the leaderboard last time, it kind of puts you off players like Watson.

Rose is a very good wedge player and is priced at a fair 25/1, he ranks 89th in putting which is off putting. Players like Stenson, Watson and Rose need the par 5s to keep their score ticking over. This doesn't really appear to be an option here and he will have to get the putter going to contend.

It's the same story for Matsuyama. 40/1 is very fair despite not placing as much as a regular backer, like me, would like to see. He has tons of ability but he needs to make some 10-20ft putts to win here and his record this season so far suggests this is far from guaranteed.

Koepka, when he is on is a birdie machine. I like him a lot as a player and he has settled very comfortably into the role of a top 20 player in the world. The problem is when he is not quite on he can make big numbers very quickly. He ranks 150th in driving accuracy and 151st in scrambling, a dangerous combination. Quite possibly the reason why he missed the cuts at TPC Boston and The Barclays. He is a far price but hard to trust at the moment.

Rickie Fowler is 16/1 this week. Despite winning at the Deutsche Bank, I would make him nearer 33/1. I know he has won 3 big events this year but he blows so hot and cold and therefore is so difficult to judge or trust. He ranks an awful 115th in greens in regulation and 78th in scrambling. This will obviously result in some poor performances but he is also a hot and cold putter. At the Deutsche Bank, where he won, he hit it fairly loose from the tee, hitting hardly any fairways in the first two rounds but he putted beautifully. He ranked 44th in strokes gained short game, which rates the individual shot, but lead scrambling as he holed 15 of the 19 putts! I'm not sure he is going to be that hot with the putter again this week and the idea of backing him at 16/1, even if he putts well, would be bad business, despite being 5th in the world. He is also an unproven front runner.

Kuchar shot 61 in round three here in 2013. He finished 24th. This is perfect for Kuch. He has accuracy from the tee combined with superb wedge play and is a good midrange putter. He has 4 top 10s in his last 7 starts too. He's also a great scrambler. What's not to like? Well, his long game, especially his mid and long iron play has been weak this year. I just can't see him putting four rounds together. His price looks about right.

Outside of Spieth, who is excellent value but a shorter price than I normally like to back, I've looked for more value further down my list. Going further down the list obviously means I am looking at players that are less likely to win, but there are a couple that look worth mentioning.

Snedeker is one. He is 14th on my list and I have him at 50/1, 66/1 is the general price available. He finished 8th here in 2013 with rounds of 63-68-71-72. He is mentioned as he is an excellent putter and a strong wedge player. His long game is awful but 4th in putting and 8th in scrambling could see him do well on a course that won't penalise him too much for his weakness with the driver.

But the outsider that I am going to keep onside is Jason Bohn. 125/1 is a decent price about a solid player. He is 16th on my list and his stats are flattered slightly by an easy schedule, but even taking this into account his ranks of 5th in fairways, 27th in putting, 26th in greens in regulation, 19th in scoring and 35th in scrambling show how solid he is as an all around player. The only stat he ranks outside of the top 50 is driving distance which, as discussed, doesn't matter here. I would make him around 55/1. He missed the cut last week but before that he finished 9th in The Barclays and 4th in the Quicken Loans. 13-12-4-37-9-mc is decent form for a 125/1 chance. He's a good fit for this week....


BMW Championship

3 points win Jordan Spieth @ 12/1

0.75 points each way Jason Bohn @ 125/1


2015 running total =  -145.81 points. This week’s investment 4.5 points. This weeks P&L =

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments