UA-33754892-1 Archives for 13 November 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Presidents Cup, Alfred Dunhill Championship, Iskandor Johor Open and Dunlop Phoenix

Poor week last week. Jbe Kruger was closest to posting a return to our investment but a poor second round on the easy course in Singapore cost him. The event was reduced to 54 holes as inclement weather struck continuously throughout the week. This was especially unfortunate for young Kruger as in his position you can’t blame him for getting defensive in round two with so much money on the line and a tour card to guarantee. I am not surprised about a conservative approach but he could have made up the ground when having nothing to lose in the final 36. 18 was not enough. Marksaeng was not up to much all week.

In Australia Adam Scott had a solid week, posting another top 10 but never really getting involved. Toms played all 72 holes but everyday you had to scroll a long way down to find him. He is not a particularly good traveler. We lost all 11.5 point invested dropping us to 296.04 points for the year or +£2960.40 to a £10 stake.

This week we have to look a long way from home to find the four events worth looking at. Lets start off in Melbourne with the Presidents Cup. I really like team USA to win and have done for a while. Adam Scott and perhaps Jason Day are the only two players on the International Team who carry any sort of intimidation factor and even those two will not really deter a confident US team that has a perfect blend of experience and cocky debutants.

I do have my concerns, the teams are priced up at pretty much EVS each of two. So why Evs about a US team that looks so dominant on paper. Well, one could argue that despite dominating the event since it started in 1994 the US do not have the best record in far away locations. Their only loss came in 1998 at Royal Melbourne and they halved at The Links at Fancourt in South Africa in 2003. They have won the other five times. So is a far away location going to affect an inexperienced American team. Maybe a touch, there is a lot to say for home advantage when looking through recent Ryder Cups and generally in sport but when you look through the International Team it is not really a home advantage. Only a five of the players are Australian and they all live and play full time in the States. They will have the crowd but thats about it. The US rookies are another concern but they have great leader in Fred Couples and the experienced players like Woods and Mickelson can help and inspire the young players.

For me the International Team looks flat. Adam Scott has good recent form but has a lot on his mind with his ‘superstar’ caddy. Day looked good last week and will be bullish and hard to beat as ever. Apart from that Schwartzel, Choi and Yang may be hard to beat but that’s just 5 out of 12 players. To me the others look venerable. Els has one top ten this year, Goosen is a shadow of the player he was when contending week in week out, Allenby has not won for years in the States. Obviously they are all capable but they need to be inspired back into form. Norman to the non-Australians will not have the same motivation level as Freddie will with the entire American team.

The American team look solid throughout. The two concerns are potential injuries to Mahan (shoulder) and Stricker (neck). Even if one is not fit throughout the event two time winner and Major winner Keegan Bradley is ready step in. The fact he is not in the team shows the strength. So yes they are away from home and that’s a negative but this is not a good International team, not like the ’94 and ’03 when they snuck results.

After looking at the Presidents Cup the Alfred Dunhill does not look too exciting! I played this event a few years ago and it is tough to find a better course anywhere in the world. It is immaculate and great fun to play. It is not tough. The fairways are wide and with perfect greens you can hole a few putts too. When I played the event was in December and the heat was a big factor but this time of year it should be fine apart from a few thunderstorms that are forecast.

Long hitters have a big advantage here but you have to be able to convert putts as the scoring should go low. Better than -15 should win given fair weather and soft conditions. Plenty of the European players are fighting for their cards. This makes it tough to side with them but when you look at the South African players it is a weak turnout. When the first few prices came out this week I liked Jbe Kruger for this. He was chalked up at 40/1 and looked too big. This course sets up well for him but he has had a seriously hectic, demanding and tiring schedule. He secured his European Tour card last week and he may be a little flat this week. He is now best priced 28/1 and that is a little short for me.

Aitken and Coetzee are the 14/1 favourites. Rightly so but both short enough. Out of the two I prefer Aitken. He has a good record here and enjoys Johan Rupert’s hospitality. 14/1 is too short for me. Fleetwood is class and 33/1 is a good price. He is worth a little interest. At bigger prices, small stake big return punts, are two South African’s with a lot of game, Branden Grace and Jake Roos. Grace is 90/1 and is an all out attacking player. He has no fear and will relish getting involved here. Roos, who almost won the Jo’burg Open a few years ago likes the big stage and although he has shown vey little form he is worth a speculative punt at 250/1. Dan Gaunt was another I looked at an ok price but the heat to keep his card is on the Australian and coming from the UK after a little break suggests he may be a little rusty.

I have no real view in Malaysia at the Johor Open. It is an ok field at a course I know very little about, it is a new venue. The player who looks under rated is Sidduker. The Bangladeshi player is consistent and if, like most Malaysian courses, this is tight from the tee it should suit him down to the ground. 150/1 is big and worth a little go.

The bet I do like this week is Gary Woodland in the Dunlop Phoenix event. Mcdowell is 9/1 joint favourite with Fernando Castano. Gary Woodland is 16/1. I was surprised that the two favourites as well as Edoardo Mollinari and Sang-Moon Bae are shorter than him. I would consider him to be the most likely winner. There is a fair bit of quality further down the board but for me Woodland is the best player in this field and 16/1 looks big to me. I will also have Aphibarnrat at 66/1. He played well here last year and showed some decent form last week in Singapore storming through the field after a poor day one.

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Presidents Cup
6 pts USA to win @ Evs

Alfred Dunhill Championship
1.5 pt each way Tommy Fleetwood @ 33/1
0.5 pts each way Branden Grace @ 90/1
0.5 pts each way Jake Roos @ 250/1

Johor Open
0.5 pts each way Sidduker @ 150/1

Dunlop Phoenix
3 pts win Gary Woodland @ 16/1
1 pt each way Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 66/1

2011 running total +296.04 pts This weeks investment 17 pts


To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register’.

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.


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