UA-33754892-1 Archives for 13 May 2018 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

AT&T Byron Nelson

I do love the Players Championship. Sawgrass is just the most wonderful golf course. It is such a fair challenge that does not exclude any type of player.

Short hitters can compete, it rewards accuracy and is a very fair test of your all around golf game. The traditional 'great drivers' like Rory tend to struggle as their 'great driving' tends to be judged more by length than accuracy. Likewise we rarely see the great putters compete as you need your long game too (see Snedeker this week). All in it suits all around ball strikers. Webb fits that bill. He has said in the past, "All I want to do is putt average, if I do that I will have a chance to win." This Players Championship he putted above average and blew the field a way.

If Webb had played the same on a more 'traditional' PGA Tour venue, that is long and lenient from the tee, we may not have seen him contend. That's why Sawgrass produces great events, as does Hilton Head. There is an obvious lesson to be learnt here, bigger is not always better.

From our end we were close. The new model being used this year does not make each way picks, it is hard to identify the combined value for placing and winning. Hence we bet win and top 5 etc. separately. This has cost us a few times this year where we have identified a player who is value to win the event, like Jimmy Walker this week at 280/1, but not backed him for a top 5 finish. Jimmy Walker is not a consistent player, the model makes him value to win as he is capable of doing this more than 0.357% of the time but doesn't think he would finish in the top 5 almost 2% of the time. Therefore the value is in the win market, not the place, so that is what we back. Brooks Koepka is a similar story. Both comfortably outran their prices for Sawgrass but we were rewarded with nothing. You must remember that a player who is capable of winning the event 1% of the time in 15498 runnings, the amount of times I simulate the tournament, is still 99% likely to lose. Such is the nature of golf betting, we will back losers most of the time!

Anyway, Webb got us out of dodge. We had him in the top 10 market from the start and added him in to the win market halfway through the event. The in running price made him a 35% chance, we had at 50%. Therefore we had a decent bet on him.

Jordan Spieth's Sunday really hurt us. His poor back nine cost us the match bet against Justin Thomas. We lost 181 points in total on the week.

Frankly I do not know why I bother with the European Tour any more. It is so boring, the events so poor and too many of the silly matchplay things like this week and the 6s the other week. Having said this it has been more profitable than the PGA Tour so let's keep going for now! But I won't be getting involved in the matchplay in Belgium. You could bet the 36 hole stroke play but with a pretty average field and a new course I don't see much point. I was excited to maybe bet some matches but over 9 holes it really is a toss up. I would normally say I would rather leave it alone and just watch, but in this case I think I will just leave it!

The AT&T Byron Nelson though I am excited about. A 72 hole stroke play event on a brilliant golf course. Trinity Forest is a Coore and Crenshaw design. I love 'Bill and Ben's' work. I have been fortunate to play a few like Streamsong and their Pinehurst Number 2 tweaks. Trinity Forest looks another classic. It is by all intents and purposes a links course, although Jordan Spieth (a local) says you can't really run it in and it is best attacked from the air. There are no water hazards and no trees. It is built on a landfill and the building of water hazards and the planting of trees forbidden.

Bunkers and clever green layouts are the defence of the course. A strong wind will often blow up to help protect the course too. There is no rough and the fairways are wide. One green complex (I think a double green for the 5th and 11th) is 36000 square feet, the biggest in North America.

This course is all about strategy, accurate irons and coping in the wind. Positioning your ball in the correct places to attack greens is key and working out the lie of the land on approaches vital. A player needs a good brain, a lot of patience and fantastic imagination to go well here, although I fancy the scoring will go low. I am guessing, as it is a new course to the Tour (only opened in 2016) that the winner will need to break the -20 mark. I am also guessing at this, but courses with very large greens with a lot of slope in them often have pin positions that will gather the ball either towards or throw it away from the hole. I think we will see some holed shots this week and Skybet's market of 2+ hole in ones at 5/2 has some appeal. Although the price on paper appears ridiculous wait until you see the 8th hole, a 140 yard par 3 with a huge green which gathers to bowls both left and right. There will be plenty of chances on this hole alone.

I am looking for a player who is an accurate iron play who can hit it to the points he needs to more often than not. This is going to be the key this week. I think there are few better iron players in golf than Hideki Matsuyama and although his recent form is rotten, he should be second in the betting behind Jordan Spieth. I think this course will play in a very similar way to Albany where they play the Hero World Challenge at the end of the year and I would be nearer 12/1 Hideki and there is 28/1 on offer.

Elsewhere I think Kodaira should go well and I also like Lahiri who loves a tricky, unique test. He is a good iron player and a great putter who sometimes suffers from a lack of control from the tee. This weakness is neutralised somewhat this week and he is good enough to get himself in the mix.

Swafford is another I am backing in a few markets. He has been dreadful this year and his stats, especially his short game numbers, are appalling. We know he is better than what he has shown so far and that he is good enough to turn it around at some point. A different test like this where you need to 'make' shots may break him out of that funk and there is enough value in his price to take a risk with him.

In the interest of full disclosure, I think Spieth wins. I am 11/2 and the best price is 11/2. He needs to putt better but this is his sort of golf course and he plays well close to home. The more the wind blows the more it will favour him.

Full win market below.

JK


AT&T Byron Nelson



To Win


2.00 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 180 (-2)
2.29 points Hideki Matsuyama @ 29 (-2)

Top 5


2.00 points Hudson Swafford @ 71 (-2)
2.00 points Anirban Lahiri @ 41 (-2)
3.54 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 21 (-3.54)
2.49 points James Hahn @ 26 (-2.49)
3.31 points Peter Uihlein @ 14.5 (-3.31)


Top 10


4.13 points Hudson Swafford @ 23 (-4.13)
4.14 points Anirban Lahiri @ 23 (-4.14)
6.57 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 10 (-6.57)



Top 20


8.27 points Hudson Swafford @ 9.5 (-8.27)
7.65 points Abirban Lahiri @ 7 (-7.65)


First Round Leader

2.00 points Satoshi Kodaira @ 91 (-2)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

119.16 points Maverick Mcnealy to beat Niemann @ 1.83 (+98.90)
107.32 points Hideki Matsuyama to beat Walker @ 1.91 (-107.32)

Specials

10 points 2+ hole in ones @ 3.5 (Skybet) (-10)



2018 Bankroll (Based on an initial balance 1000 points) = 749.87 points


This week's P&L = -68.81
This week’s investment = 286.87 points


This week's Outright P&L = -50.39
This weeks's Outright Investment = 50.39 points


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -18.42
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 236.48 points



2018 Total P&L = -250.13

2018 Total Investment = 12980.02 points

2018 Outright Bets P&L = +295.88
2018 Outright Bets Investment = 5727.36 points

2018 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -546.01
2018 matches/specials/in running investment = 7417.34 points


2017 total -37.24 points
2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points

2010 total +189.33 points
8 Year Total +432.63 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

Staking System

2018 onwards - The updated staking plan incorporates a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. The calculation determines a recommended stake based on prevailing odds and an estimated probability that the selection will win.

The strength of bet is still advised in points. These points are representative to your chosen bankroll. The ratio used in my advice is to an initial bank of 1000 points. So if this bank is £100, £1000 or £10000 is up to you. But 1 point to a bank of £100 will be £0.10, to £1000 £1, to £10,000 £10. In this respect it is the same as the old system. 


Back testing carried out on the previous 7 years selections has shown much larger profits on winning years and only a marginally higher loss in losing years. It will carry slightly higher volatility overall, but the testing has shown it to be a much better, more profitable and frankly more enjoyable system. 


Pre 2018 - The advice came with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet meant placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.



113%

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
£100
To Lose
Ex V.
Jordan Spieth
18%
5.50

5.66
17.7%
-1%
450
82%
-2.86
Matt Kuchar
6%
17.70

15.60
6.4%
1%
1670
94%
13.48
Sergio Garcia
5%
21.00

16.89
5.9%
1%
2000
94%
24.37
Jimmy Walker
4%
23.00

27.28
3.7%
-1%
2200
96%
-15.68
Hideki Matsuyama
4%
26.00

11.77
8.5%
5%
2500
92%
120.88
Branden Grace
4%
26.00

21.38
4.7%
1%
2500
95%
21.60
Adam Scott
4%
26.00

29.05
3.4%
0%
2500
97%
-10.50
Marc Leishman
4%
27.00

14.14
7.1%
3%
2600
93%
90.91
Billy Horschel
4%
28.00

72.18
1.4%
-2%
2700
99%
-61.21
Beau Hossler
2%
41.00

48.47
2.1%
0%
4000
98%
-15.41
Charles Howell III
2%
44.00

43.23
2.3%
0%
4300
98%
1.79
Aaron Wise
2%
51.00

86.12
1.2%
-1%
5000
99%
-40.78
Martin Laird
2%
57.00

44.11
2.3%
1%
5600
98%
29.23
Brandt Snedeker
2%
61.00

67.94
1.5%
0%
6000
99%
-10.21
Peter Uihlein
1%
67.00

39.49
2.5%
1%
6600
97%
69.65
Grayson Murray
1%
71.00

46.20
2.2%
1%
7000
98%
53.69
Ryan Palmer
1%
71.00

116.31
0.9%
-1%
7000
99%
-38.96
Scott Piercy
1%
76.00

88.55
1.1%
0%
7500
99%
-14.17
Graeme McDowell
1%
81.00

132.25
0.8%
0%
8000
99%
-38.75
Joaquin Niemann(am)
1%
81.00

1035.77
0.1%
-1%
8000
100%
-92.18
Kevin Na
1%
82.00

48.28
2.1%
1%
8100
98%
69.84
Rory Sabbatini
1%
86.00

79.38
1.3%
0%
8500
99%
8.33
Russell Knox
1%
90.00

139.79
0.7%
0%
8900
99%
-35.62
J.B. Holmes
1%
105.00

67.64
1.5%
1%
10400
99%
55.23
Keith Mitchell
1%
114.00

85.03
1.2%
0%
11300
99%
34.07
Bill Haas
1%
124.00

99.60
1.0%
0%
12300
99%
24.50
Sam Saunders(july1987)
1%
126.00

244.73
0.4%
0%
12500
100%
-48.51
Maverick McNealy
1%
126.00

337.86
0.3%
0%
12500
100%
-62.71
Satoshi Kodaira
1%
133.00

44.36
2.3%
2%
13200
98%
199.83
Harris English
1%
133.00

189.60
0.5%
0%
13200
99%
-29.85
John Huh
1%
143.00

451.90
0.2%
0%
14200
100%
-68.36
Daniel Summerhays
1%
151.00

212.39
0.5%
0%
15000
100%
-28.91
Aaron Baddeley
1%
151.00

241.57
0.4%
0%
15000
100%
-37.49
Denny McCarthy
1%
151.00

412.97
0.2%
0%
15000
100%
-63.44
James Hahn
1%
152.00

72.64
1.4%
1%
15100
99%
109.26
Patrick Rodgers
1%
171.00

369.55
0.3%
0%
17000
100%
-53.73
Seamus Power
1%
171.00

603.24
0.2%
0%
17000
100%
-71.65
Andrew Putnam
1%
190.00

212.42
0.5%
0%
18900
100%
-10.55
Kevin Tway
1%
190.00

181.39
0.6%
0%
18900
99%
4.75
Tom Lovelady
1%
190.00

324.59
0.3%
0%
18900
100%
-41.46
Richy Werenski
1%
190.00

652.56
0.2%
0%
18900
100%
-70.88
C.T. Pan
1%
200.00

217.68
0.5%
0%
19900
100%
-8.12
Abraham Ancer
1%
200.00

478.16
0.2%
0%
19900
100%
-58.17
Kelly Kraft
1%
200.00

370.30
0.3%
0%
19900
100%
-45.99
Cody Gribble
0%
209.00

576.80
0.2%
0%
20800
100%
-63.77
Stephan Jaeger
0%
219.00

274.35
0.4%
0%
21800
100%
-20.18
Johnson Wagner
0%
228.00

314.17
0.3%
0%
22700
100%
-27.43
Anirban Lahiri
0%
238.00

106.54
0.9%
1%
23700
99%
123.40
Sam Ryder
0%
238.00

271.05
0.4%
0%
23700
100%
-12.19
Troy Merritt
0%
238.00

257.79
0.4%
0%
23700
100%
-7.68
Joel Dahmen
0%
238.00

590.26
0.2%
0%
23700
100%
-59.68
J.J Spaun
0%
247.00

109.22
0.9%
1%
24600
99%
126.14
Ben Martin
0%
247.00

233.26
0.4%
0%
24600
100%
5.89
Brian Gay
0%
247.00

304.49
0.3%
0%
24600
100%
-18.88
Nate Lashley
0%
247.00

314.11
0.3%
0%
24600
100%
-21.36
Tyrone Van Aswegen
0%
247.00

466.47
0.2%
0%
24600
100%
-47.05
Padraig Harrington
0%
251.00

354.99
0.3%
0%
25000
100%
-29.29
Nicholas Lindheim
0%
251.00

1575.45
0.1%
0%
25000
100%
-84.07
David Lingmerth
0%
257.00

123.61
0.8%
0%
25600
99%
107.92
Vaughn Taylor
0%
257.00

169.82
0.6%
0%
25600
99%
51.34
Talor Gooch
0%
266.00

220.25
0.5%
0%
26500
100%
20.77
Shawn Stefani
0%
266.00

868.84
0.1%
0%
26500
100%
-69.38
David Hearn
0%
276.00

370.95
0.3%
0%
27500
100%
-25.60
Michael Thompson
0%
285.00

335.83
0.3%
0%
28400
100%
-15.14
Alex Cejka
0%
285.00

245.66
0.4%
0%
28400
100%
16.01
Corey Conners
0%
285.00

364.14
0.3%
0%
28400
100%
-21.73
Ben Crane
0%
285.00

388.05
0.3%
0%
28400
100%
-26.56
Matt Jones
0%
285.00

2074.70
0.0%
0%
28400
100%
-86.26
Tyler Duncan
0%
301.00

164.89
0.6%
0%
30000
99%
82.54
Matt Every
0%
301.00

848.37
0.1%
0%
30000
100%
-64.52
T.J. Vogel
0%
301.00

374.89
0.3%
0%
30000
100%
-19.71
Geoff Ogilvy
0%
301.00

1969.11
0.1%
0%
30000
100%
-84.71
JT Poston
0%
304.00

395.70
0.3%
0%
30300
100%
-23.17
Peter Malnati
0%
304.00

1027.19
0.1%
0%
30300
100%
-70.40
Hunter Mahan
0%
309.00

1140.77
0.1%
0%
30800
100%
-72.91
Robert Streb
0%
333.00

215.18
0.5%
0%
33200
100%
54.76
Brian Stuard
0%
333.00

926.02
0.1%
0%
33200
100%
-64.04
Cameron Tringale
0%
342.00

1556.08
0.1%
0%
34100
100%
-78.02
George McNeill
0%
342.00

56250.91
0.0%
0%
34100
100%
-99.39
Ethan Tracy
0%
351.00

1768.90
0.1%
0%
35000
100%
-80.16
Cameron Percy
0%
361.00

740.61
0.1%
0%
36000
100%
-51.26
Ryan Armour
0%
371.00

425.12
0.2%
0%
37000
100%
-12.73
Ernie Els
0%
380.00

840.44
0.1%
0%
37900
100%
-54.79
Robert Garrigus
0%
380.00

793.26
0.1%
0%
37900
100%
-52.10
Rob Oppenheim
0%
390.00

414.37
0.2%
0%
38900
100%
-5.88
Martin Piller
0%
390.00

3800.74
0.0%
0%
38900
100%
-89.74
Chad Campbell
0%
399.00

998.93
0.1%
0%
39800
100%
-60.06
Conrad Shindler
0%
401.00

665.65
0.2%
0%
40000
100%
-39.76
Sunghoon Kang
0%
409.00

220.53
0.5%
0%
40800
100%
85.46
Hudson Swafford
0%
428.00

133.88
0.7%
1%
42700
99%
219.69
Jonathan Randolph
0%
428.00

536.94
0.2%
0%
42700
100%
-20.29
Benjamin Silverman
0%
428.00

606.23
0.2%
0%
42700
100%
-29.40
Greg Chalmers
0%
428.00

1015.68
0.1%
0%
42700
100%
-57.86
Adam Schenk
0%
428.00

535.76
0.2%
0%
42700
100%
-20.11
Brett Stegmaier
0%
428.00

4326.99
0.0%
0%
42700
100%
-90.11
Zac Blair
0%
428.00

2260.23
0.0%
0%
42700
100%
-81.06
Eric Axley
0%
428.00

2473.17
0.0%
0%
42700
100%
-82.69
Michael Kim
0%
428.00

1493.32
0.1%
0%
42700
100%
-71.34
Bronson Burgoon
0%
428.00

3806.45
0.0%
0%
42700
100%
-88.76
John Senden
0%
428.00

14062.73
0.0%
0%
42700
100%
-96.96
J.J. Henry
0%
428.00

6250.10
0.0%
0%
42700
100%
-93.15
Blayne Barber
0%
475.00

652.21
0.2%
0%
47400
100%
-27.17
Nick Taylor
0%
475.00

716.08
0.1%
0%
47400
100%
-33.67
Sangmoon Bae
0%
475.00


#VALUE!
#VALUE!
47400
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
Zhang Xin-jun
0%
501.00

358.67
0.3%
0%
50000
100%
39.68
Ricky Barnes
0%
501.00

562.18
0.2%
0%
50000
100%
-10.88
John Merrick
0%
501.00

5456.97
0.0%
0%
50000
100%
-90.82
Martin Flores
0%
523.00

283.05
0.4%
0%
52200
100%
84.77
Fabian Gomez
0%
523.00

2376.80
0.0%
0%
52200
100%
-78.00
Dominic Bozzelli
0%
570.00

465.68
0.2%
0%
56900
100%
22.40
Rick Lamb
0%
570.00

1376.29
0.1%
0%
56900
100%
-58.58
Jonathan Byrd
0%
570.00

768.46
0.1%
0%
56900
100%
-25.83
Derek Fathauer
0%
589.00

2869.94
0.0%
0%
58800
100%
-79.48
Angel Cabrera
0%
601.00

112501.82
0.0%
0%
60000
100%
-99.47
Marty dou Ze-cheng
0%
618.00

179.98
0.6%
0%
61700
99%
243.38
Lanto Griffin
0%
618.00

269.98
0.4%
0%
61700
100%
128.91
Brendon de Jonge
0%
751.00

14062.73
0.0%
0%
75000
100%
-94.66
Colt Knost
0%
784.00

12980.98
0.0%
0%
78300
100%
-93.96
Smylie Kaufman
0%
855.00

16875.27
0.0%
0%
85400
100%
-94.93
Rod Pampling
0%
884.00

499.23
0.2%
0%
88300
100%
77.07
Matt Atkins
0%
950.00

1546.31
0.1%
0%
94900
100%
-38.56
Andrew Yun
0%
950.00

1622.62
0.1%
0%
94900
100%
-41.45
Ken Duke
0%
950.00

2285.74
0.0%
0%
94900
100%
-58.44
Steve Wheatcroft
0%
950.00

1814.55
0.1%
0%
94900
100%
-47.65
Roberto Diaz
0%
950.00

1529.94
0.1%
0%
94900
100%
-37.91
Tom Whitney
0%
950.00

4371.83
0.0%
0%
94900
100%
-78.27
Kyle Thompson
0%
950.00

2251.61
0.0%
0%
94900
100%
-57.81
Ryan Blaum
0%
950.00

763.54
0.1%
0%
94900
100%
24.42
Steve Marino
0%
950.00

1842.95
0.1%
0%
94900
100%
-48.45
Dicky Pride
0%
950.00

10680.55
0.0%
0%
94900
100%
-91.11

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