UA-33754892-1 Archives for 13 May 2012 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

HP Byron Nelson Championship and Volvo Matchplay

What a thoroughly professional performance by Matt Kuchar to win the Players Championship. I was there to witness it and he played smart, solid golf throughout. He looked calm and comfortable when the pressure was on which is more than can be said for Kevin Na. How some of these guys do not get done for slow play more often is obscene and bad for golf. Ben Crane is another who is hideously slow but I forgive him as he got us a place on our first round leader bet. That won us 13.75 points which offset the 9 points we lost elsewhere. Keegan Bradley scrambled to a T35, Senden did nothing, Woods still looked out of sorts, Crane ended up missing the cut and Bo Van Pelt missed 3 short putts in the last 3 to finish 7th. We made 4.45 points on the week leaving us at +17.58 points for the year or +£175.80 to £10 stake.

This week looks to be a fairly quite tipping week. The Byron Nelson is top heavy and the Volvo Matchplay is the worst format in golf. In the States I like the chances of Bradley, Dufner and Mickelson. Bradley has not registered a top 25 in his last four starts and despite being the defending champion with stats that suit the course he is hard to back at 20/1. Mickelson also looks short enough at 11/1. The TPC Four Seasons Resort demands accuracy from the tee. Despite good form of late and excellent short game this may not be ideal. Plus he has not played here since 2007.

Therefore we are left with the somber Jason Dufner. Someone said last week “he looks like someone who has just had his wallet stolen” and that is strangely true. But the fact is his game is a perfect fit for this course. It is only 7166 yards long and can get windy. Everybody struggles on the greens, last year it ranked 7th in putts per greens in regulation. Bradley won this last year really through an excellent long game performance. Dufner finished 68th at The Players. That does not tell the full story though. He was 13th in fairways hit and 6th in greens in regulation at Sawgrass but second to last in putting. He ranks 12th in ball striking on Tour. The different putting surfaces here may inspire him to follow up his maiden win three weeks ago. I think 22/1 is fair enough about a guy who finished 8th here last year and is worth a small each way.

The Volvo is a non-betting event on the outrights as far as I am concerned. It is a Micky Mouse format that relieves me of any interest in the event. After the ‘group stages’ are complete it may be worth a look and I will review then. The only thing that looks worth a pop is John Senden to beat Poulter in the first match on the first day. 13/8 looks big about the excellent Australian ball striker. I know Poulter has a great record at Finca and loves matchplay, I also know he was the first round leader at Sawgrass but his opening 65 was flattered by 23 putts. The rest of the week he putted poorly. I am not going to get involved but it may be worth a go.

HP Byron Nelson Championship

1.5 points each way Jason Dufner @ 22/1.


2012 running total +17.58 points. This weeks investment 3 points

2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Twitter: @jasonkellygolf



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