UA-33754892-1 Archives for 13 January 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Abu Dhabi Championship and Desert Classic

Desert Classic (in running after round 4)

Nothing doing going into the final round.




Player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Mickelson
52%
1.91

1.91
52.4%
0%
0.09
Hadwin
27%
3.75

4.33
23.1%
-4%
-13.45
Cantlay
7%
15.00

14.44
6.9%
0%
3.86
Rahm
5%
21.00

22.93
4.4%
0%
-8.43
Long
4%
23.00

27.55
3.6%
-1%
-16.51
Marino
3%
36.00

57.15
1.7%
-1%
-37.01
m Thompson
2%
51.00

56.97
1.8%
0%
-10.48
Im
1%
67.00

51.48
1.9%
0%
30.15
Poston
1%
101.00

116.21
0.9%
0%
-13.09
Bozzelli
1%
101.00

129.66
0.8%
0%
-22.10




Abu Dhabi Championship (In running after round 2)

Adri Arnaus is 7 under and 5 behind. We have the big hitting, young Spaniard for the top 10 and 20 market already but this is a great time to get on him for the outright too. 350/1 simply too big. I would be 50/1.


0.25 points each way Adria Arnaus @ 350/1 (1/4 1-4) (-0.5)



player

imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Oosthuizen
22%
4.50

5.44
18.4%
-3.9%
-17.35
Lowry
18%
5.50

9.67
10.3%
-7.8%
-43.12
Westwood
11%
9.00

12.38
8.1%
-3.0%
-27.29
Sterne
7%
15.00

15.43
6.5%
-0.2%
-2.78
Koepka
6%
17.00

17.54
5.7%
-0.2%
-3.08
Poulter
6%
17.00

19.80
5.0%
-0.8%
-14.15
Lewis
5%
19.00

20.41
4.9%
-0.4%
-6.92
Pieters
4%
26.00

30.13
3.3%
-0.5%
-13.70
Kjeldsen
3%
34.00

50.94
2.0%
-1.0%
-33.26
Jamieson
2%
41.00

34.51
2.9%
0.5%
18.80
Herbert
2%
41.00

40.90
2.4%
0.0%
0.24
Johnson
2%
51.00

27.83
3.6%
1.6%
83.27
Wallace
1%
67.00

68.68
1.5%
0.0%
-2.45
Luiten
1%
67.00

78.64
1.3%
-0.2%
-14.80
Bjork
1%
67.00

104.73
1.0%
-0.5%
-36.03
Larrazabal
1%
67.00

147.39
0.7%
-0.8%
-54.54
Kaymer
1%
67.00

332.60
0.3%
-1.2%
-79.86
Green
1%
81.00

52.31
1.9%
0.7%
54.86
Cabrera Bello
1%
101.00

113.24
0.9%
-0.1%
-10.81
Pepperell
1%
101.00

116.92
0.9%
-0.1%
-13.62
Forrest
1%
126.00

79.65
1.3%
0.5%
58.19
Grace
1%
126.00

137.65
0.7%
-0.1%
-8.46
Smith
1%
126.00

171.90
0.6%
-0.2%
-26.70
Detry
1%
126.00

235.95
0.4%
-0.4%
-46.60
Fleetwood
1%
151.00

101.40
1.0%
0.3%
48.91
Rai
1%
151.00

306.83
0.3%
-0.3%
-50.79
Horsey
0%
201.00

103.65
1.0%
0.5%
93.92
Scrivener
0%
201.00

151.19
0.7%
0.2%
32.94
Wiesberger
0%
201.00

206.81
0.5%
0.0%
-2.81
Fox
0%
201.00

196.38
0.5%
0.0%
2.35
Waring
0%
201.00

173.29
0.6%
0.1%
15.99
Van Rooyen
0%
251.00

138.51
0.7%
0.3%
81.21
Schwab
0%
251.00

288.01
0.3%
-0.1%
-12.85
Foos
0%
251.00

1454.98
0.1%
-0.3%
-82.75
Burmester
0%
301.00

261.01
0.4%
0.1%
15.32
Levy
0%
301.00

340.94
0.3%
0.0%
-11.71
Bjerregaard
0%
301.00

411.89
0.2%
-0.1%
-26.92
Dredge
0%
301.00

358.82
0.3%
-0.1%
-16.11
r Fisher
0%
301.00

827.24
0.1%
-0.2%
-63.61
Hebert
0%
301.00

566.69
0.2%
-0.2%
-46.88
Shinkwin
0%
301.00

569.33
0.2%
-0.2%
-47.13
Kieffer
0%
301.00

1037.72
0.1%
-0.2%
-70.99
Arnaus
0%
351.00

54.99
1.8%
1.5%
538.29
Singh Brar
0%
201.00

59.15
1.7%
1.2%
239.81
Morrison
0%
351.00

671.15
0.1%
-0.1%
-47.70
Hend
0%
401.00

315.82
0.3%
0.1%
26.97
Sullivan
0%
401.00

325.68
0.3%
0.1%
23.13
Campillo
0%
401.00

655.63
0.2%
-0.1%
-38.84
Lombard
0%
401.00

647.92
0.2%
-0.1%
-38.11
Bertasio
0%
401.00

1806.72
0.1%
-0.2%
-77.81
Horsfield
0%
401.00

1125.67
0.1%
-0.2%
-64.38
Brazel
0%
401.00

1471.79
0.1%
-0.2%
-72.75
Perez
0%
451.00

482.37
0.2%
0.0%
-6.50
Zanotti
0%
451.00

1151.26
0.1%
-0.1%
-60.83
Ramsay
0%
451.00

2366.97
0.0%
-0.2%
-80.95
Kitayama
0%
501.00

426.01
0.2%
0.0%
17.60
Lipsky
0%
501.00

1017.14
0.1%
-0.1%
-50.74
Walters
0%
501.00

1149.17
0.1%
-0.1%
-56.40
Lorenzo-Vera
0%
501.00

3324.13
0.0%
-0.2%
-84.93
Colsaerts
0%
501.00

2425.01
0.0%
-0.2%
-79.34
Molinari
0%
501.00

2518.22
0.0%
-0.2%
-80.10
Bhullar
0%
601.00

320.56
0.3%
0.1%
87.48
B Hansen
0%
601.00

503.34
0.2%
0.0%
19.40
Romero
0%
601.00

1308.43
0.1%
-0.1%
-54.07
Macintyre
0%
751.00

737.47
0.1%
0.0%
1.84
Southgate
0%
751.00

1214.76
0.1%
-0.1%
-38.18
Paratore
0%
751.00

2513.66
0.0%
-0.1%
-70.12
Jacquelin
0%
801.00

6106.18
0.0%
-0.1%
-86.88
Fichardt
0%
1001.00

402.19
0.2%
0.1%
148.89
Quiros
0%
1001.00

3093.53
0.0%
-0.1%
-67.64
Bjorn
0%
1001.00

61876.00
0.0%
-0.1%
-98.38





Abu Dhabi Championship (In running after round 1)

Nothing doing after round 1.

player
imp %
books
bf
My Price
My %
Diff
Ex V.
Lowry
17%
6.00

14.91
6.7%
-10.0%
-59.76
Oosthuizen
14%
7.00

11.76
8.5%
-5.8%
-40.48
Koepka
9%
11.00

13.11
7.6%
-1.5%
-16.12
Johnson
7%
15.00

11.72
8.5%
1.9%
27.95
Westwood
7%
15.00

25.19
4.0%
-2.7%
-40.46
Kaymer
7%
15.00

84.11
1.2%
-5.5%
-82.17
Pieters
6%
17.00

24.38
4.1%
-1.8%
-30.26
Fleetwood
4%
26.00

21.98
4.5%
0.7%
18.28
Poulter
4%
26.00

28.58
3.5%
-0.3%
-9.01
Cabrera Bello
4%
26.00

48.64
2.1%
-1.8%
-46.55
Larrazabal
4%
26.00

48.27
2.1%
-1.8%
-46.13
Lorenzo-Vera
3%
29.00

39.03
2.6%
-0.9%
-25.69
Bjork
3%
34.00

46.81
2.1%
-0.8%
-27.37
Sterne
2%
41.00

37.98
2.6%
0.2%
7.95
Lewis
2%
41.00

54.59
1.8%
-0.6%
-24.90
Kjeldsen
2%
51.00

81.09
1.2%
-0.7%
-37.10
Wallace
1%
67.00

97.21
1.0%
-0.5%
-31.07
r Fisher
1%
67.00

96.08
1.0%
-0.5%
-30.27
Rai
1%
67.00

154.43
0.6%
-0.8%
-56.61
Grace
1%
71.00

104.68
1.0%
-0.5%
-32.17
Stenson
1%
81.00

90.50
1.1%
-0.1%
-10.50
Luiten
1%
81.00

124.96
0.8%
-0.4%
-35.18
Sullivan
1%
81.00

55.95
1.8%
0.6%
44.78
Lipsky
1%
81.00

91.17
1.1%
-0.1%
-11.16
Hatton
1%
101.00

95.66
1.0%
0.1%
5.58
Li
1%
101.00

105.09
1.0%
0.0%
-3.89
Pepperell
1%
101.00

133.30
0.8%
-0.2%
-24.23
Levy
1%
101.00

121.07
0.8%
-0.2%
-16.58
Fox
1%
101.00

113.17
0.9%
-0.1%
-10.75
Bjerregaard
1%
151.00

125.94
0.8%
0.1%
19.90
Zanotti
1%
151.00

120.73
0.8%
0.2%
25.08





Abu Dhabi Championship (Wednesday start)

Abu Dhabi is marginally the better of the two events this week. Ever since the first edition when Chris Dimarco won here, Americans have done well. There has also been a succession of repeat winners like Kaymer, Casey and double defending champion Tommy Fleetwood.

I am going to be fairly brief here. I like Dustin Johnson. 6/1 available, I would be 9/2.

Adri Arnaus is also worth siding with, the long hitting Spaniard I fancy will really make a name for himself this year. He has a lot of game.


To Win

0.5 units Dustin Johnson @ 6/1 (-0.5)

Top 5

No bet

Top 10

0.5 units Adri Arnaus @ 16/1 (-0.5)


Top 20


0.75 points Adri Arnaus @ 15/2 (-0.75)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2.5 units Olesen to beat Detry @ 5/6 (-2.5)
2.5 units Hatton to beat Pieters @ 5/6 (-2.5)
2 units An to beat Li @ 10/11 (-2)



Desert Classic

The low scoring shoot out in the Palm Springs desert returns under yet another title. The same formula remains, make lots of birdies. There's two ways of doing this. 1, Putt great. 2, Hit it well enough that you create bundles of chances. The preference is for both.

Rose certainly hits it well enough and these courses will forgive his occasionally waywardness from the tee. The question is can he putt well enough to keep up. 10/1 gives us enough margin to take a chance on him and his new clubs, I would be 13/2.

I also think Cantlay is worth chancing. 20/1 is fair value, I would be 14/1. He is as impressive as he is slow, but there is no doubt in his ability and he can beat a fairly average line up when you take out Rahm and Rose.

I am also going to throw in Beau Hossler as my gut shot. He averages 5 birdies a round and fits the profile of someone that should enjoy a low scoring test. Decent value at 80/1, I would be 50/1.


To Win

0.5 units Justin Rose @ 10/1 (-0.5)
0.25 units Patrick Cantlay @ 20/1 (-0.25)
0.25 units Beau Hossler @ 80/1 (-0.25)


Top 5

1 units Justin Rose @ 3/1 (-1)
0.75 units Patrick Cantlay @ 11/2 (-0.75)
0.5 units Phil Mickelson @ 9/1 (+4.5)
0.5 units Beau Hossler @ 14/1 (-0.5)

Top 10

2 units Justin Rose @ 6/4 (-2)
1.5 units Patrick Cantlay @ 11/4 (+4.13)
0.75 units Beau Hossler @ 15/2 (-0.75)


Top 20


2 units Patrick Cantlay @ 11/8 (+2.75)
0.75 units John Catlin @ 18/1 (-0.75)
2.5 units Justin Rose @ 8/11 (-2.5)
0.75 units George Cunningham @ 14/1 (-0.75)
1.5 units Phil Mickelson @ 5/2 (+3.75)
1 unit Beau Hossler @ 7/2 (-1)


72 Hole Matches (Sky Bet - tie no bet)

2.5 units Cantlay to beat Howell III @ 4/5 (+2)
2.5 units Glover to beat Piercy @ 4/5 (+2)
2.5 units Im to beat Kim @ 4/5 (+2)
2.5 units List to beat Wise @ 4/5 (-2.5)
2.5 units Reavie to beat Ancer @ 4/5 (-2.5)





This week's P&L = -4.12 units
This week’s investment = 38.25 units


This week's Outright P&L = +2.38 units
This weeks's Outright Investment = 18.25 units


This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -6.5 units
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 20 units



2019 Total P&L = -10.13 units

2019 Total Investment = 69.25 unites

2019 Outright Bets P&L = -10.77 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 35 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +0.64 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 36.5 units


2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to 
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

I rate my picks as 0.25 to 2.5 units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • 2.5 units - 2.5% of bankroll

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