UA-33754892-1 Archives for 13 January 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship and Humana Challenge

Last week worked out ok for two tricky events. I said Jbe Kruger was inconsistent and we caught him on a bad week and lost a point. John Huh played solid but struggled to keep momentum after a second round 63. He cost us 2 points. Fortunately Thongchai Jaidee put in a big performance. He lead after round one, by three entering the back 9 on Saturday but ended up settling for 3rd behind an impressive Jamieson and a fast finishing winner in Louis Oosthuizen. I said Louis was the most likely winner but getting 12.5/1 in Jaidee placing compared to Louis’ 5/1 for winning leaves me in a position where I wouldn’t swap! We made 9.5 points on the week moving us into a 6.5 point profit for the year.

This week there are two great events. Lets look at ‘Europe’ first. There may be a lot of inverted commas around the word Europe this season! Abu Dhabi Golf Club hosts an strong line up.
Rory heads the betting at 5/1. That seems pretty tight about a guy who is first time out this season and first time out with new equipment. If he is in the same form as in Dubai in December he will take some beating. He also has a formidable record in the desert. Despite this 5/1 is short with this quality around him.

Woods could be anything. If he was 7/1 at Torrey Pines next week you would not hesitate. He did not look in great nick in his own event in December and it is hard to know if he can take what he is working on to the course. One would have to imagine he has left no stone unturned and used every minute of the winter break in an attempt to narrow the gap between him and Rory, especially with Rory’s new Nike deal adding more fuel to the fire. As chummy as they appear you know Woods will have a burning desire to dethrone the young pretender. I fancy Woods to beat Mcilroy at 5/4 this week and then you would think that’d be good enough to win the tournament too. Worth consideration.

One I can put a line through pretty quickly is
Martin Kaymer. 10/1 is a crazy price in this field. I know I often turn down what appears to be a gift horse because it looks too much of a good thing. It happened with Dustin Johnson at the Hyundai. I knew he had been playing at 7am every morning for 7 days on Kapalua before that event and with the course being a perfect fit it looked to good to be true. It wasn’t. It was that obvious. Last week Charles Howell’s course form suggested he was a shoe in and he rewarded with a nice place return. It is the old casino scenario when the roulette wheel throws out five reds in a row so you are convinced the next spin has to be black despite the odds being just the same. Having said all that, I will not be backing Kaymer at the price despite his wins here in 2008, 2010 and 2011 and his 2nd in 2009.

Justin Rose at 16/1 will like the demands of the 7500 yard lay out. The more emphasis on the long game the better for Rose. His game is starting to suit tough tracks more and more. However, it is the two behind him in the betting that interest me more, Jason Dufner and Peter Hanson. I like Rose but given the choice between backing him at 16/1 or Dufner at 25/1 there is no decision to be made. Desert golf suits Americans. They are used to it. Chris Dimarco was testament to that when he strolled over for a rare trip to ‘Europe’ and walked off with the Qatar Masters. I like Dufner here and there is plenty of value in that price. Look at Dufner over the last two years compared to Kaymer and try and make sense of the huge price differential.

Peter Hanson really stepped up a level last year. I started last season doubting him and called him an “over rated under achiever” in one of my previews. He has proved he is the real deal and when he putts good, which is pretty often nowadays, he can contend anywhere against anyone. I also think the way he was treated at the Ryder Cup will have rallied on. He won’t be resting on his laurels. At 30/1 he is worth having on side, especially as he has recently beaten Rory head to head at the BMW Masters last year.

My last pick for Abu Dhabi is
Scott Henry. He hits it awesome and is long. It is a huge ask for him to place, let alone win, this early in his career at a big event like this but he can give us a good run at a huge 600/1.

The Humana Challenge, formally known as the Bob Hope and formally a 90 hole event, is played over the Palmer Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Private Course and La Quinta in Palm Springs. Three keys to consider here is the need to make a lot of birdies, the fact that Tour school was here in December and it is in pro am format. I can understand
Snedeker being top of the market. He finished 3rd at the Hyundai and putts brilliantly, ranking 1st in 2012. When you need to go low you need to make a bunch of putts so he could be hard to beat. Kuchar is in good form and at 16/1 should go well. I fear he does not weapons to go low enough unless he bores it out with zero mistakes. Mickelson has a house here and knows it well. First time out at 16/1 is not for me. I am not sure how Tim Clarke is shorter than Webb Simpson, Robert Garrigus and Bo Van Pelt. Is he more likely than the US Open Champion or a player with 5 consecutive top 10’s? I know he played well last week and has two 2nds and a 5th in four starts here but still, that is a bad price for a guy who has not played very much golf. The middle part of the market makes very little sense to me. Petterson 40/1 and Clarke 16/1? Bizarre. Bill Haas shorter than Zach Johnson? Not sure how one comes to that conclusion. Oh well.

The guy I wanted to be with this week and am devastated he is now not playing is
Y E Yang and I think this would have suited him better than next week. The guys I like that are playing are Pat Perez, Carl Pettersson, Ross Fisher, Zach Johnson and Bo Van Pelt. Brendon De Jonge would have been in the list too as he normally goes well when the scoring goes low but with only 11 birdies in 72 holes last week he is hard to back here.

Perez won here in 2009 and shot 63 in the final round to finish 14th last year. He finished 9th last week with only 5 bogies recorded. He can go well at 50/1. I want to back Carl Pettersson as this should set up perfectly. When he gets the long putter fully would up he can make birdies for fun and does not fear going low. However, his form in Palm Springs is poor and he was flat last week on route to a 59th place finish. It is tough to look past that despite his 8th the previous week in the Hyundai.

Ross Fisher finished 2nd at Q School here. He will relish a return with some real $$$ on the line. He would have won Q school if it were not for a final hole pull from the tee into the water. He posted 24 under par then and with some of the pressure off he can have a big week. He has gone well in pro am format before at The Dunhill. The concerns are how rusty is he and can he putt well enough to keep up with the scoring? I think his par 5 performance will be key. He can eat them up around here and the concerns are offset by a generous price of 66/1.

Zach Johnson is a tricky one to get right. For someone who drives it well and putts very well he is amazingly in and out. Having said that his missed cut last week was his first for 12 events. He finished 8th here last year and as mentioned, putts well enough to go low. I do like Zach and 33/1 is a decent price about him. Bo Van Pelt at 25/1 in this line up is hard to ignore. Although he has had a little time off he is on a run of five consecutive top 10’s including a win, a 2nd and a 3rd. He makes birdies for fun and until he wins on US soil I have no worries about his motivation, desire or focus. He finished 5th here four years ago and you would have to think if he had played already this year he would more than likely be favourite. That is the only concern with BVP. When he finished 5th here he played the week before in Hawaii, since then he has started his season here and never really contended.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship

2 pts win Jason Dufner @ 25/1
1 pt each way Peter Hanson @ 30/1
0.25 pts each way Scott Henry @ 600/1

Humana Challenge

1 pt each way Pat Perez @ 50/1
0.5 pts each way Ross Fisher @ 66/1
2 pts win Bo Van Pelt @ 25/1

Special Bet

0.5 pt each way double Bo Van Pelt 25/1 and Jason Dufner @ 25/1

2013 running total = +6.5 pts. This week’s investment 10.5 points. This weeks P&L = -10.5 points

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.