UA-33754892-1 Archives for 13 February 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Avantha Masters and Northern Trust Open

Westwood frustrated me last week. A par par finish would have seen him get a place, instead he finished double bogey - bogey to miss out. Jimenez got going on day one but made two doubles in his last four holes to shoot level. He never figured after that. McGowan and Wattel both performed as their big prices suggested. On the other side of the Atlantic Snedeker was horrific. Vaughn Taylor had another solid week but never threatened. Thank God for Darren Andrew Points. He opened with a 63 and was in the mix the whole week. It was a big performance aided by some good fortune on the back nine on Sunday. He got the job done. 80/1 was a nice price too.

We made a tasty 89 points on the week. The 4 we lost on Westwood still hurt. It took us to 125.5 point profit or £1250 to a £10 stake.

Last week was sweet but this is a new week and it is important not to let a nice win impact our decision making. Lets have a look at the Avantha Masters first. Dehli is the location for the ‘European’ Tour this week. The DLF Club hosts. The Arnold Palmer design is tight from the tee and has small, grainy greens. There is lots of water on this 7150 yard, par 72 course.

Indians have a great record in this event as they have 4 or 5 events a year on this course. The Indian Tour and Asian Tour are frequent visitors. Also the climate and grainy greens are something they are accustomed to, they do not have to adapt as much as others. Having said that it is very difficult to make a case for any of the Indians in the field. Jeev Milkha Singh is the market leader at 18/1 but I have no interest in that, despite having an apartment that overlooks the course. Gaganjeet Bhullar (spellcheck does not like that!) is a quality player but is short enough at 33/1. He won the Challenge Tour event in India a couple of weeks ago. This is a bit harder. Thongchai Jaidee is a class act and this course is set up well for him. He has had a good year in Asia and can win in a weak field. He missed cut last week but finished 19th in Qatar on a course that really did not suit. 20/1 is a good price. Another worth a small interest is Jbe Kruger. The South African leads greens in regulation on the Asian Tour and will be used to the grainy greens. 80/1 is value for a small each way investment.

The Northern Trust Open, formally the Nissan Open, formally the LA Open is the event in the States this week. Riviera Country Club is the classy venue. At 7,300 yards, par 71 it is the 2nd hardest course on the US Tour outside the Majors averaging +0.12 over par per round. It suits left to right hitters and surprisingly length is not that greater advantage, in 2010 it averaged the 4th shortest in average length from the tee. However, this may change this week as rain is forecast through to Sunday afternoon. If the ball is not rolling out it may eliminate some of the shorter guys.

On the shortlist are Jason Day, D A Points, Bill Haas, Kuchar, Stricker, Yang, Ogilvy, Laird, Mickelson and Hunter Mahan.

Jason Day is quality, but withdrew from the Sony Open with an illness, the same as the one that ruined his 2009 campaign. I have to dismiss him on the basis that he may not be either fully match fit, fully fit or both. D.A. was obviously great for us and has been in the plan for the last 2 weeks. You can get 80/1 again and often first time winners go well again but I can’t see D. A. doing this. Bill Haas is having a tremendous season but has an awful record here. Kuchar is passed over for the same reason. Stricker has every right to go well here despite his recent poor performance in Qatar. He finished 2nd here in 2009 and 11th in 2008. He should go well but 12/1 is short. Ogilvy is so tempting at 45/1 but I would not fancy him in the rain and his best finish here is only 28th. Mickelson led the field in greens in regulation last week on route to finishing 9th and is a two time winner here. Hence the skinny 8/1.

So Yang is the first pick. Y. E. is a very solid ball striker. He is the 10th longest on tour and is 12th in scoring average. He finished 15th here last year. 80/1 is a nice price. Martin Laird finished 3rd last time out at the Phoenix Open. 6th in driving distance, 22nd in putting and 9th in all round ranking. If it rains the Glaswegian won’t mind and at 80/1 he is worth a shot. The last pick is Hunter Mahan. An impressive runner up last week he can go one better here. His game is perfect for Riviera and finished 17th in 2009 and missed the cut last year. 25/1 seems like a good price.

Avantha Masters

2pts win Thongchai Jaidee @ 20/1
0.5 pts each way Jbe Kruger @ 80/1

Northern Trust Open
1.5 pts each way Hunter Mahan @ 25/1
1.5 pts each way Y.E Yang @ 80/1
0.5pts each way Martin Laird @ 80/1

2011 running total +125.5 pts This weeks investment 10pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

2010 record +189.33 points.

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