UA-33754892-1 Archives for 12 October 2014 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Volvo World Matchplay, Shriner Hospital for Childrens Open and Hong Kong Open

Last week really was a kick in the guts. We looked fully loaded in the with a 150/1 chance in Tony Finau looking ready to place and Brooks Koepka with a very real chance to win. They danced around the top of the leaderboard all week and ended up missing the places by two shots and a shot respectively. Tough to watch, especially as we had staked fairly high on the week.

Portugal quickly turned into an event I knew shouldn’t have been involved with. We had picked accuracy players based on there being the normal, decent amount of rough. There was none and a bombers shootout incurred. When it was shortened to 36 holes the chances for a plodding stayer had gone.

This made me aware of one of the strangest rules in betting. Betfair normally have a rule saying, “All bets on this market will be declared void unless 54 holes of the tournament are completed.” This rule is different in European Tour events for some reason, only 36 need to be completed. Strange but true. It doesn’t affect me as I very rarely use Betfair for golf bets. The prices are normally very poor especially when commission is considered.

Another thing that it made me aware of was how I had fallen victim of my own beliefs. Alexander Levy looks awkward and doesn’t behave like a top rate golfer but he clearly is. I had underated him, he can play.

Anyway, on to this week. First up the Volvo World Matchplay. I am going to be pretty brief here as I am not a huge fan of the format and the weather this week looks like it throw up a few surprises. The old World Matchplay at Wentworth was one of the best events in golf, back in the day. To see what it has turned into is a great shame. Anyway, I hear Volvo are pulling out of their European Tour sponsorship interests next year and I think they will have to work very hard to find a replacement for this event, unless a lot of things change, especially the time of year.

With poor weather and a funky format I think it is worth siding with a couple of outsiders. The two to have on side are Jonas Blixt, the rag at 40/1 and Pablo Larrazabal at 28/1. It is going to be wet and windy so long hitting ball strikers will have an advantage but a player like Blixt has such a good short game that he can grind players down. Larrazabal looks to have a game ideally suited to matchplay. Loads of birdies with the occasional big mistake. He is a competitor and will adore this format. They are both coming out of groups that look fairly weak. Importantly they both dodge Stenson, who I think is the man to beat. They are worth a go at the prices.

Hong Kong has a very weak field for what should be a good event. When Y.E. Yang is headlining you know there is a problem. In fact it is pretty strange they used Els and Yang to promote the event when Jimenez, perhaps the most likeable player in golf, is double defending champion. Surely he is the guy to use?

There’s not too much to like about this market and certainly nobody at the head of the betting makes any appeal. It’s weak all the way through and looks an opportunity for a journeyman to take his chance. I like three at the prices. Seve Benson, Prom Meesawat and James Morrison.

Seve has played really solid golf since returning from a back injury. The last two weeks have not been his best but this will suit more and that has only inflated his price. He finished 18th here last year on his only start and he is nice value at 50/1.

Prom finished 2nd here last year and won on the Asian Tour five weeks back, three starts ago. A bit like Benson and Morrison, he wouldn’t be a bet if there was much to beat at the top but at 50/1 he is worth a play.

Morrison’s form reads a lot like Seve’s. A lot of good solid golf without threatening and then an average last two weeks. The last two weeks can be forgiven in my view. As mentioned already, Portugal last week turned into a bit of a joke and the Dunhill is links and is set up very much with the amateurs in mind. One of James’ strengths is his accuracy and the last two weeks this has counted for little. Here it brings value and his style of golf is similar to Jimenez. Unspectacular but solid and with a warm putter he could contend at 100/1.

Now this week’s best event and once again it is in the States. This week the Tour is in Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open. Once again they play TPC Summerlin so another low scoring shootout is almost guaranteed. Last year they changed four holes putting more severe bunkering in, lengthened the course and dropped the par from 72 to 71.... 24 under won it!

Webb Simpson defends and last year he was running hot coming into this and not only dominated the field scoring, but he also won or nearly won every major stat category. It was a very impressive performance. The desert weather is guaranteed. Warm and calm, perfect for golf. The winner of this will have to make a lot of birdies.

It’s a strong line up and there are a lot of players you can make very convincing cases for. I feel I can make a pretty strong argument for one in particular, which is strange as he is a player I have never backed, or had any real inclination to back, but all the numbers around his name are too good to ignore. He has won and finished second here in the last five years and has finished 6-14-3 in his last 3 starts. 28/1. The numbers for Martin Laird look good and he is a bet.

I am going to dig a little deeper for my other two bets. Justin Thomas at 100/1. He knows how to make birdies. As I mentioned last week he lead birdie average on the last year as well as the all around ranking. He can hit the ground running on a course that will be more like the courses he played last year. He missed the cut last week but I like him for this.

My last bet this week is the short in stature and short in length Zachary Blair. He was 2nd through 36 last week and ended up finishing an impressive 12th on his 2nd ever PGA Tour start. Before this he finished 2nd at Sawgrass in the Tour Championship. He is in form, ranked 9th in birdies, 4th in scoring and 14th in putting last season. This should suit and at 200/1 is worth a speculative punt to continue his strong play.

Volvo World Matchplay (Starts Wednesday)

0.5 points win Pablo Larrazabal @ 28/1
0.5 points win Jonas Blixt @ 40/1

Hong Kong Open

0.5 points each way James Morrison @ 100/1
0.75 points each way Seve Benson @ 55/1
0.5 points each way Prom Meesawat @ 50/1

Shriners Hospital for Children Open

1 point each way Martin Laird @ 28/1
0.5 points each way Zachary Blair @ 200/1
0.75 points each way Justin Thomas @ 100/1

2014 running total =  -50.27 points. This week’s investment 9 points. This weeks P&L = -9 points

(Already advised) US Money List 2015

1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1

2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.