UA-33754892-1 Archives for 12 June 2016 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The US Open

Unfortunately no bets on the last round. I like in the two balls Hoffman to beat Smith 8/11, Kopeka to bt Oppenheim 4/9, Spieth to beat G-Mac at 4/7, Berger to beat Kang @ 4/7, Day to bt Dechambeau @ 40/85 and Lowry to beat Landry @ 8/13; but they are all too short for me.

I do think Evens about Shane Lowry is a fair price however. He drives the ball well and has a good short game. There's no reason to think he can't shoot 70-72 today and then he is very difficult to beat.

(Already Advised)

US Open - Round 1 18 Hole Matches
2 points Charl Schwartzel @ 4/5 to beat Oosthuizen (-2)
2 points Bill Haas @ 10/11 to beat Justin Thomas (-2)

US Open - Outright
2 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 50/1 (-4)
1 point each way Charl Schwartzel @ 70/1 (-2)
0.75 points each way Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 80/1 (-1.5)
0.75 points each way William McGirt @ 200/1 (-1.5)
0.5 points each way Gregory Bourdy @ 400/1 (-1)
0.5 points each way Jon Rahm @ 300/1 (-1)

US Open - Top 10 Finish
1 point Jon Rahm @ 20/1 (-1)

US Open - Top 20 Finish
1.5 points Jon Rahm @ 10/1 (-1.5)

US Open - Top Amateur
4 points Jon Rahm @ 11/4 (+11)

US Open - Top Frenchman
2.5 points Gregory Bourdy @ 6/5 (+3)

US Open - Top German
2 point Maximilian Kieffer @ 9/4 (-2)

US Open - Round 1 Threeballs

2 points Gregory Bourdy @ 15/8 to beat Tanihara and Streelman (-2)
2 points Andrew Johnston @ 11/8 to beat Sam Horsfield and Patrick Rodgers (-2)

US Open - Round 2 Threeballs
2 points Lee Westwood @ 11/8 to beat Kaymer and Donald (+0.38)

US Open - Round 3 18 Hole Matches
2 points Branden Grace @ 20/23 to beat Louis Oosthuizen (+1.74)

US Open - In Running
3 points Shane Lowry @ Evs (-3)

This week's P&L = -6.38
This week’s investment = 37 points

This week's Outright P&L = -11
This weeks's Outright Investment = 11 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +4.62
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 26 points

What to do?

Rough that eats the ball up; narrow fairways; very firm, sloping greens that run at 14 on the stimp; a course, which last time it held an event (2007 US Open), boasted the 2nd highest scoring average in relation to par since records began, second only to Carnoustie '99 (also ranks third with +5.134 in 1983). It sounds like everything one would want from a US Open, but it is hard to argue it is the purest test of golf.

I think the answer to my question 'what to do?' well, I think we avoid the short ones and find some value.

We can look at the stats, at the form, at the profile that should suit as much as we want but at the end of the day there is a great deal of good fortune associated with a tough US Open. It does not matter how good you drive it you are going to miss fairways and the lies you draw will have a big influence on how your week will unfold. As will the amount of times you chop out of the heavy green side rough hoping it doesn't come out dead or hot. A few inches can make 40 feet of difference on approach shots, chips and putts. Is it a test of skill or luck? A bit of both is probably fair, but it is definitely a test of strategy, endurance and patience.

The course has not changed much since 2007. It actually has been shortened by a whole 3 yards. But it is going to be a hell of a challenge, par is going to be a great score despite perfect weather conditions forecast throughout. What makes this really amazing is the fact that very few trees and no water hazards come into play! Its just brutal rough and scary greens.

When we look back at 2007 it is very hard to find a profile. There is an equal mix of bombers and fairway finders, blades and green in regulation guys and some renowned grinders and some dodgy short games. Most punters want to find a straight hitter who can putt for a US Open. I don't, I want to find a guy who will be aggressive and hit it miles up there and then gauge it out the rough if necessary. Everyone is going to miss fairways but it's a huge advantage to have a wedge in hand rather than a 5 iron. I think this explains how
Cabrera won. He doesn't find many fairways, possess a below average short game and is a hot and cold putter, but more often cold. He won by taking the course on and hitting greens from the rough when others couldn't. Same with Bubba who finished 5th. We talk about patience and attitude but even Bubba managed a top 5! I generally think that when a course is tough scrambling is the keys stat. It is so difficult that even the best tee to green are going to have to produce miracles to make pars when they do make a mistake.

Like I said it is a mix, take the top 10 in 2007;
Cabrera, Woods, Watson, Casey were in the top 10 as were Furyk, Fasth, Toms, Verplank, Ames and Jerry Kelly. Two very different groups of players. Rose fits more into the long than straight category but great all around, Nick Dougherty completed the top 10. If we break their stats down we learn a little more. The average rank of the top 10 in the various stats categories were:

Driving Accuracy - 28th
Driving Distance - 26th
Total Driving - 26th
Greens in reg - 13th
Ball Striking - 19th
Total Accuracy - 18th
Scrambling - 26th
Putting - 18th
Total Putting - 19th

From this we can see that the top 10 finished there as they were good all through the bag on that week, but greens in regulation was the key, followed closely by putting. I don't care too much about the driving, I want someone who can hit greens and putts good. Obviously being on the short stuff will help when it comes to hitting greens, but so will length when u consider the very best driver (in 2007 Fred Funk) misses over 27% of fairways and the field averaged 54% of fairways hit. The greens at Oakmont are surprisingly big for an old course but managing the approaches and executing could well hold the key.

Adam Scott has by far the best approach play numbers on the PGA Tour, followed by Stenson and Matsuayama. Scott has Stevie Williams back on the bag this week and has finished in the top 10 the last two US Opens. He was in stunning form at the start of the season and has been a little overshadowed by Jason Day despite not doing much wrong. As strong as he is tee to green he does give some back on and around the green. He is better than the last few years but I am not sure it is good enough to hang in there all week. He can hit it good enough to get into contention but I am not sure he will recover well enough when the mistakes come. He is also not overly generous at 18/1.

This is a story repeated against most the guys at the head of the market. You like their chances and then their price is off-putting. The bottom half of this 156 man field is weak and it is reflected in trying to find value in the stronger players.

The top of my list of most likely winners is
Jason Day. He is lapping the tour in strokes gained putting. People talk about Spieth's putting but Day is way better. I have always said that Spieth is a phenomenal mid to long length putter but is not the best short putter otherwise he wouldn't have a big grip, putt cross-handed and look at the hole whilst he is doing it. Day holes out beautifully; simple and confident. He also posses decent approach play stats and his high ball flight will work well on firm greens with little wind. My concern is he doesn't hit it straight and his short game, although improved, is played stiff wristed and shallow which isn't ideal for this heavy rough. 13/2 is very hard to consider on this course in this line up about any player, let alone one who is reported to be feeling a little under the weather.

Rory I have fractionally behind Day and is opposed for the same two reasons, average short game and a short price, although he had a career best putting week at Memorial last time out.

I really like
Dustin Johnson and he is very difficult to get away from. He has everything to win this and 14/1 doesn't look too bad all things considered. 5 top 5s in last 7 starts and 4th and 2nd finishes in the last two US Opens. He hits it great and his putting is better than average. He is near the top of his game and will take this course on, which I like. The downside is simple, his Major demons which keep coming to get him on Sundays, especially in the US Open and a caddy that appears to offer very little help or support. I think subbing his brother out for someone that can help him would be a wise move at some point. Dustin looks a lonely figure a lot of the time on the golf course, but maybe that's what he likes.

I like
Mickelson too. Only Adam Scott ranks above him when you combine a weighted version of approach play and putting, our two key stats. I think he will go well even though he hit it everywhere off the tee last week (finished tied 2nd) and has poor course form. His MC in 2007 was his last US Open missed cut. But, the only thing that stops me betting on what would be a dream victory, is the fact he wants it too much. He would be the oldest US Open winner and would complete a career Grand Slam. Many are surprised that Mickelson has only once in his whole career managed to finish in the top 10 in the scrambling statistic, he has all the shots and I think the explanation is he is aggressive with his approaches and misses shots in worse places than most. He is scrambling well this year and putting his best ever. He lead strokes gained putting again last week at St. Jude. I would love to see him win, but it won't be for the reason of personal financial gain.

As I work through the top players it becomes evident I am not going to back one. They all have chinks and at the prices it is hard to risk. I like
Rose, who finished well here in 2007, but he withdrew from the BMW PGA and The Memorial with a bad back, which would have hampered preparations and isn't a good thing in this rough. But out of the fancied runners I think Dustin Johnson is the best bet at 14/1 and Day the most likely.

So lets look at some value. I wanted to back
Patrick Reed out of instinct. He has the best short game on Tour and is gutsy, consistent and has the desire. 50/1 is tempting but his approach work is average as is his putting this season.

Let's pick a few.
Matthew Fitzpatrick at 80/1. 10th on the European Tour in greens hit and played great when winning Nordea Masters last time out on a tough course. He could chip it around and get involved despite his lack of US Open experience.

I am also going to have a small interest in
Gregory Bourdy at 400/1. He qualified at Walton Heath and has been very steady of late. He nudges it around in a very tidy manner and putts well. It seems unlikely I agree, but so did a similar Frenchman's chances at Pebble a few years ago when Havret finished 2nd.

My main bet is going to be
Brooks Koepka at 50/1. He is long and aggressive which I like, he fits the profile well as he is a good iron player and a strong putter. He finished 4th at Pinehurst and 18th at Chambers Bay last year. He has finished 2nd in his last two starts. Last week at TPC Southwind in the St. Jude he ranked 3rd in proximity and 5th in scrambling. To me he is a straighter hitting version of Dustin Johnson without the scar tissue. His game is in great shape, he has won in Phoenix so doesn't fear the big stage. He is a good bet.

I'm also going to have an interest in
Charl Schwartzel at 70/1. His game looked back to its best at the start of the year, he ranks 5th in strokes gained approach and if he finds his flow he should enjoy this challenge.

Jon Rahm is a serious talent. He is turning pro after this event and is talking a huge game. His goal is to make the Ryder Cup team this year! There is no doubting his ability, he hits it huge and is a very good putter who is full of confidence. Phil Mickelson managed to persuade him to go to Arizona State and play for his brother Tim, who is the coach. He has played great at Phoenix in the past and looks fearless. 300/1 is a good price in the outright and worth a follow, top amateur at 11/4 looks a very good bet; he is the world number one amateur. He has played 4 events on tour and 2 have gone for top 10s (5th Phoenix 2015, 10th OHL 2016 season). 20/1 a top 10 is worth a play too, as is top 20 at 10/1, a position he has filled on 75% of his PGA Tour starts.

My last bet is another big price in
William McGirt. He won a couple weeks ago at Memorial and is a straight hitter who is putting great at the moment. The greens are fast at Muirfield Village and he will be free wheeling and full of confidence. 200/1 is a big price.

2016 Total P&L = -89.76 points
2016 Total Investment =  880 points

2016 Outright Bets P&L =  -33.7 points
2016 Outright Bets Investment = 171.5 points

2016 matches/specials/in running P&L =  -56.06points
2016 matches/specials/in running investment = 708.5 points