UA-33754892-1 Archives for 12 July 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Open Championship Day 1

The Open Championship Day 1.

Outrights
(Each way 1/4 1-7)

0.75 points each way Ryan Palmer @ 150/1 (-1.5 pts)

0.5 points each way Kevin Na @ 200/1 (-1 pt)

Day One Three Balls

0.5 point yankee
(-0.22 points)
(08.11) Ross Fisher to beat Dubuisson and Horschel @ 9/4.
(11.44) Thomas Aiken to beat Blixt and Lipskey @ 11/8
(13.01) Zach Johnson to beat Fleetwood and Wiesberger @ 9/4
(15.51) Tom Gillis to beat Rumford and Taylor @ 6/4

0.5 point trixie (-2points)
(08.22) Ollie Schniederjans to beat McDowell and Simpson @ 4/1
(09.33) Hideki Matsuyama to beat D. Johnson and Spieth @ 3/1
(14.12) Jimmy Walker to beat Scott and Kaymer @ 11/4



(Already Recommended)

The Open Championship

(each way all 1/4 odds 1-7)

1.75 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 40/1 (-3.5 pts)

1 point each way Jimmy Walker @ 66/1 (-2 pts)

1 point each way Brendon Todd @ 250/1 (-2 pts)

0.5 points each way Webb Simpson @ 200/1 (-1 pts)

0.75 points each way Robert Streb at 250/1 (300/1 in places) (-1.5 pts)


(Antepost)


The Open

1 point each way Ian Poulter @ 80/1 (BetVictor 90/1, 7 places or Betfair fixed odds 90/1 8 places)

1 point each way Matt Kuchar @ 80/1 (BetVictor 90/1)

1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 40/1


2015 running total =  -101.64 points. This week’s investment 20 points. This weeks P&L = -14.72 points

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments

The Open Championship

The Open Championship Sweepstake information and entry is online @ http://jasonkellygolf.com/Major%20Sweeps/ . Pick 6 players, keep their value under 300 points, the lowest combined score wins.

The Open Championship


The Open at St. Andrews. There are very few sentences that sound better to a golfer than that. Perhaps "That's good, pick it up" isn't far away but, "The Open at St. Andrews" conjures up all sorts of memories and then, dreams.

Even in my lifetime, which represents a tiny proportion of St. Andrews' great history, the winners are at the very least pure class, if not absolute legends of the game. Seve '84, Faldo '90, Daly '95 and Rocca's 18th hole duff and putt, Woods' 8 shot domination in 2000, Woods again but only by 5 in '05 and Oosthuizen by 7 in 2010. But when you go back through the annals the roll of honour is a who's who of the game. Winning an Open Championship at St. Andrews is not just an unbelievable achievement, it's a privilege, you are included in the same sentence as the greats of the game. Nicklaus, Seve and Woods have said it; "To be considered great you have to win an Open at St. Andrews." I guess it is easier to say that when you have done it, but it holds true and it's what everyone at the home of golf will be grinding for this week, to be considered and honoured as a great.

There have been changes to the Old Course over the years but it ultimately remains the same test. The common consensus is it is a long hitters course, that you can just hit it miles left from every tee and then a putting competition on huge greens. I would argue almost the opposite. Sure, being long won't hurt but the course is only 7297 yards of relatively firm links land, although it is said the course is playing slower and softer for this edition, the short hitters still won't be victimised too much is they hit it where they aim it. A course with only two par 5s, one of which everyone can reach with an iron if there is no wind, can't be considered a long hitters course. The two stats that have been key in the last three Open's at St. Andrews is driving accuracy and scrambling. Driving accuracy more than scrambling. The other thing one has to sadly report, there hasn't been a good Open at St Andrew's since 1995. Since then they have been won long before the final few holes on Sunday.

The Old Course allows you to bang it left from every tee but you don't get good angles to the pins if you do. A conservative line from the tee makes the approach shot so much harder in nearly every case. To me the course is all about strategy and short game. It is hard to be ultra detailed here as the European Tour stats are so bad, so the analysis suffers when the PGA Tour doesn't gather its data. In 2010 Oosthuizen lead driving accuracy, putts per greens in regulation and putts per round. He ranked 2nd in scrambling. No wonder he won by 7!! St. Andrews is often seen as a push over, the easiest Open venue. Perhaps it is, but it still has a beastly side to it. In 2010 no course had a higher total putts per round average (32.38, Louis 29.75), no course has a worse birdies or better percentage (21.69%) or a higher three putt avoidance percentage (7.57%). It was the 2nd hardest course to scramble on with players saving par just 46.55% of the time. The winning scores may have been impressive but the others didn't find it that easy.

Looking at these numbers and adding to that the forecast of rain and strong winds predicted to hit on Friday and Saturday, then my number one criteria is a long way away from that of just long hitting good putter. I want a player on my side who will grind, stay patient and think clearly. I want him to have experience and nerve. I also want a player who gets the right side of the draw. An early tee time on Friday will help, it certainly helped Oosthuizen hugely in 2010 when the afternoon starters played in heavy winds. If you remember Louis posted 65 on Thursday afternoon after Rory shot 63 in the morning, Louis went out before the winds on Friday and shot 67, Rory went out in the afternoon and shot 80. It could very well be a similar story this year.

A final bit of evidence for the jury, Tommy Fleetwood is 26 under for his last 4 rounds at St. Andrews. Fleetwood hits it good, he is not the shortest hitter but he certainly isn't the longest either. He is worth considering in some markets but at 70/1 in the outright there are no secrets about his course form, or his recent form which is also rather impressive.

So let's get to the nitty gritty. Spieth is the 13/2 favourite. He is looking to become the first player since Hogan in '53 to win the first three Majors of the season. He is also the first player since Woods in 2010 to record 4 wins in a season before The Open, Woods won at St. Andrews that year.... surely destiny awaits. Or does it? He holes so many putts outside of 15 feet it is crazy. I have nerver seen a player even come close to his sort of conversion rate. He is still near on 40% from 15-20 feet. On the PGA Tour the 50-50 point is around 8 1/2 feet! This shows how good his mid to long range putting is, which is great for here, but; and it's a big but, it also shows how average his short range putting is. He climbed from 20th to 8th in strokes gained putting last week, due to an incredible putting display in the John Deere. When you are 40% from 15-20 feet you should be far and away the best putter on Tour. With the forecast not great, huge greens and tough scrambling conditions there are going to be a lot of short putts to be made. He doesn't look at the hole on short putts because he enjoys them. He still is the man to beat having won 4 of his last 12 events, but at 13/2 he is not for me.

Dustin Johnson is one of the most consistent players in the world today. He has a great Open record and finished a heart breaking 2nd last time out at Chambers Bay. If he putts good he could easily win this. He handles bad weather and if anyone deserves a bit of luck in Majors it is him. He could become the Greg Norman of his generation if his poor fortune continues. 12/1 is still too short for me.

I really do like Stenson. He played well in Germany last time out finishing 2nd and has a strong Open record finishing 3rd here in 2010 and 2nd at Muirfield in 2013. He has no obvious weakness' but is tight at 22/1. I also think he is a suspect chipper from tight lies which will test him more than once here.

We already have 1.5 points each way on Bubba Watson at 40/1 (now 33/1 generally). Would I back him now for this? Probably not as the bad weather is something he won't enjoy. Shaping shots with a wet club face, a wet ball, from wet grass is not to be recommended. However, he has a win and a 13th in his last two starts and out of all The Open venues this would be his best chance. He is off at 09.00 and 14.00 and looks set to get the worst of it. We'll see...

Hideki Matsuyama is the first of my bets this week. 40/1 is a cracking price about a player who has 9 top 25s in a row. He finished 18th last time out at Chambers Bay and 6th in The Open in 2013 at Muirfield. I think it is a big price about a very, very good player.

70/1 (80/1 with Ladbrokes) about the best putter on the US Tour is always worth looking at. Especially when that guy has a pretty good long game, who hits it long and is a multiple winner. A guy who led the Fedex Cup standings for most of 2014 and sits second to only Jordon Spieth in those point rankings this year. This player posted an opening 65 last week in the Scottish Open before falling away on the third day with 3 double bogies and a triple in his first 6 holes. I think it's a very big price and Jimmy Walker should be backed, especially coming out of a late early tee time.

Sergio Garcia loves The Open. He has 8 top 10s in his last 14 starts in this Major. He arguably is the best player never to have won a Major. That form has to be respected but he is putting no where near as well as last year. He has started to use Aimpoint which should help, but he stands so close to the ball when he putts, it looks horrific. No good putter ever had his eyes outside the ball. That combined with a rank of 127 in scrambling in The States and 205 (last) in Europe means he may be best avoided.

Ryan Palmer looks interesting at 150/1. He has only a 30th and a 58th to show for his two Opens to date but finished 14th in the Dunhill Links here last year, posting a 68 and 72 on the Old Course. He was right in touch in the Scottish Open last week but fell away in round 4. I think he is seriously underrated. Statistically he is up there with the best. I would think his participation in both the Dunhill last year and the Scottish this year is a sign of his intent and the last four Open winners have played the Scottish the week before. He hits it low, this should suit. It's a great price about a good player. He hooks it occasionally when under the gun, that won't hurt him so much here.

I don't really fancy Furyk this week. He is worth mentioning as he is a Major winner with a good Open record and has won this year. He is also big at 100/1. He has struggled with the putter at times this season but his long game has remained stellar. There are certainly worse bets than him this week, but I will leave him alone.

A similar story with Koepka. He should never be underestimated but 66/1 seems to be a fair reflection of his chances and others represent better value.

Talking of value, the best value by miles in this Open is Brendon Todd. 250/1, 7 places, 1/4 the odds. It's stunning business. He ranks 18th in scrambling, 7th in driving accuracy, 4th in putting, 2nd in putting inside 10 feet and 11th in total strokes gained. He finished 39th on his Open debut last year and was lying 5th after each of the first 3 rounds of the Memorial in June before finishing 17th. Since then he has finished 15th in the Travelers Championship and 6th at the Greenbrier, where we last backed him. I think this will suit him perfectly and despite having never player here before he likes a links kind of test, as he showed when leading the US Open through 36 holes last year at Pinehurst. He is cracking value.

I had a good look at Patrick Reed and Keegan Bradley. Reed is a very strong player and is expected to go well. 55/1 seems to be about right. Bradley has some value in him at 150/1, he drives the ball incredibly well and has finished in the top 20 at the last two Opens. His recent form is not up to much and therefore I will leave him alone.

The final real contender to discuss is Jason Day. They now know his vertigo was due to a viral infection in the inner ear. He can still get struck down but it is 95% less likely to occur when taking his new pills. This must be of huge relief to him. I wanted to back him. We all know he is an unreal player and loves a Major, but it appears not The Open so much. He has played 4 and made 4 cuts but never finished inside the top 25. The weather is against him too and therefore 33/1 is not that tempting.

I am going to have a couple of small each way bets on Webb Simpson and Robert Streb who's prices are simply too big. They are just value bets. Webb is on a little bit of a slide at the moment but the bad weather can neutralise his horrific putting. He is still hitting it great and at 200/1 is worth an interest, after all he is a Major champion and a multiple winner on Tour. Streb is also worth a few quid, he will like this set up and enjoy the test. He is as big as 300/1 in places and 250/1 general. He has finished 2nd and 14th on his last two starts, has 5 top 20s in his last 6 starts. 250 and certainly 300/1 is simply far too big about a very good player who has won on Tour this year and sits 6th in the FedEx Cup standings above some very good players.

I like my bets this week, I feel like we have found some big value. On the other hand I don't like them. Do any of them deserve to be a St Andrews Open winner, have they earned that right, that privilege? Perhaps not, perhaps they will in time. But for now I am happy with my bet slip and I am ready to sit back and enjoy what should be the closest St Andrews Open for 20 years. Whoever wins will surely have deserve his claim to greatness.


The Open Championship

(
each way all 1/4 odds 1-7)

1.75 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 40/1

1 point each way Jimmy Walker @ 66/1

1 point each way Brendon Todd @ 250/1

0.5 points each way Webb Simpson @ 200/1

0.75 points each way Robert Streb at 250/1 (300/1 in places)



(Antepost)


The Open

1 point each way Ian Poulter @ 80/1 (BetVictor 90/1, 7 places or Betfair fixed odds 90/1 8 places)

1 point each way Matt Kuchar @ 80/1 (BetVictor 90/1)

1.5 points each way Bubba Watson @ 40/1


2015 running total =  -101.64 points. This week’s investment 10 points. This weeks P&L =

(Already advised)

US Money List 2015


1.5 points each way Hideki Matsuyama @ 80/1
0.5 points each way Brooks Koepka @ 150/1


2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

Comments