UA-33754892-1 Archives for 11 September 2011 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

BMW Championship

The only interest we had last week was in the KLM Open. It certainly wasn’t the most exciting week of golf ever thats for sure. Bad weather meant play was on and off all week. Only Robert Dinwiddie made it half interesting. He was up there all the way through at 300/1 but failed to produce over the weekend. Annoyingly my roommate last week, Nick Murtagh, told me I had to have Dyson in my staking plan. I ignored him saying there was little value in the 33/1 on offer. Maybe he should start a tipping service! We lost the 8 points we invested. Four of those were on Lee Westwood. I hate backing short ones who do not perform. The 8 point set back saw us drop back to +198.04 points in front.

This week I am going to leave the Vivendi Seve Trophy alone and concentrate on the BMW Championship, the third event of the Playoff series. Donald (12/1), Scott (16/1), Dustin Johnson (16/1), Webb Simpson (18/1), Jason Day (20/1), Stricker (20/1), Kuchar (22/1) and Watney (25/1) dominate the betting. But how do you pick between them? They are all up there every week, they are all great players and they all have massive claims this week. But we can’t back them all at those prices, in fact I am not sure we can back any of them at those prices.

Donald is too short at 12/1. Cog Hill is only 30 minutes from is house but this is a ball strikers course and I do not put him in that category. Sure, his short game will see him round and he is almost a certainty to finish top ten but how do take 12/1 in a competitive field like this about a player who has not won a strokeplay event in the US this year? Donald dismissed. Scott, 16/1, course sets up well but there are still question marks about his putting. He has four top tens in his last six starts but has not really looked ready to close one out. He is also a pass. Jason Day, quality player, great ball striker and has a big shout here. Not sure he has the consistency to justify 20/1. I just feel you are not guaranteed a run from him, he can win but is a risky 20/1 shot.

Steve Stricker, representing the old school players, 20/1, good price about a player who tops nearly all the relevant stat categories. In fact as bigger price as you could have backed him since maybe The Open and this is a limited field event (70 players). Unfortunately that tells you a little about his recent form and course like East Lake next week will suit him better. Kuchar is the one that maybe stands out a little. Great course form including a US Amateur win. He finished top ten the last two years. Surely a big claim to this title but again his playoff form has not been up to much and 22/1 is short enough. Watney is another of the young guns with so much game and 25/1 is fairly generous but he closed with an 80 at the TPC of Boston and his best finish here is 15th. There we go.... we are not going to be backing the obvious this week. There is the obvious greedy temptation of trying to guess one of them but not one of them has credentials that stand out so therefore we are going with the value.

This is a fairway and greens course and nobody rivals David Toms in those two classic ball striking stats. Fourth in fairways and second in greens. He also boasts 7 top tens in his last 8 starts at Cog Hill. His two playoff starts read MC, 59th but his putter has been cold. Toms is one of the best putters on tour and a week off may well have done him the world of good. 66/1 is juicy and I am going to get stuck into that.

Next up is Hunter Mahan. He has been showing some positive signs without putting it all together. When it comes to long game test he always has to be a contender and 40/1 is a fair price. Twice as big as our betting dominators and perhaps he actually deserves to be in amongst them. But I don’t mind!

Final pick is Bo Van Pelt. He needs a big week this week to make a push for an automatic President Cup place that he craves so badly. He put three stunning rounds in in Boston to sneak a top ten after a shocking first round. He ranks 9th in the all round stats despite being 136th in putting. His ball striking is clearly good enough for Cog Hill and his putting was solid in Boston. We should get a good run out of him at 66/1.

Not the obvious choices but these three players have sound claims at much better prices.

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BMW Championship

1.5 pts each way Hunter Mahan @ 40/1
1.5 pts each way Bo Van Pelt @ 66/1
2 pts each way David Toms @ 66/1

2011 running total +198.04 pts This weeks investment 10 pts

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.