UA-33754892-1 Archives for 11 October 2015 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips Open and Portugal Masters Open

I like Matsuayama or Kopeka to win this. They are both in good form and have done well here before. 16/1 about the pair is fair but they are hard to split and backing them both doesn't make an awful lot of sense.

I like Brendan Steele for this at 66/1. He finished 21st last year and has 3 top 15's in his last 5 starts. His weakness is his putting but Bae, who won last year but is not here to defend as he has to do two years military service in Korea, had the biggest loss of any winner in strokes gained putting here last year. I think 66/1 is big about a good player.

Daniel Summerhays has the same weakness and appears to be good value for the same reason. Tee to green he is as strong as anyone and with an emphasis placed on scrambling at the Silverado Resort he looks a decent bet at 80/1. He finished 46th here last year but has two top 10's in his last 3.

1 point each way Brendan Steele @ 66/1 (-2 points)
0.75 points each way Daniel Summerhays @ 80/1 (-1.5 points)

Portugal Masters

I quite like Paul Lawrie @ 80/1. If he hadn't withdrawn last week before the start I would probably have backed him. He is in decent form and has a couple of top 10s at Victoria Golf Club. However, it feels like a risk. Kjeldsen is obviously in incredible form but is not one to be backed at 20/1 with only one top 20 here back in 2008. Chris Wood looks a better 20/1 chance as he has course form to go with strong recent form. The longer hitters have a definite edge here Green has good course form and is a past winner, with two top 15s in his last 5 and at 80/1 is worth a second look.

Anthony Wall looks like one to be with. He has maybe the worst win percentage on Tour but has been in decent nick. 9th last week, 19th the week before when leading at halfway, and he goes well here with a 10th, a 12th, a 16th and a 17th in his 7 starts here. 50/1, 66/1 with Paddy Power he is worth and interest.

Finally, I'm going to take a punt on Maximilan Kieffer. His form the last two weeks has been poor and with only a 26th and a 68th to his name here it doesn't look easy to make an overwhelming argument for him but he is a classy player and this should suit. Either way 80/1 looks big.

0.5 points each way Anthony Wall @ 50/1 (+5.75 points)
0.5 points each way Maximilian Kieffer @ 80/1 (-1 point)

2015 running total =  -156.31 points. This week’s investment 5.5 points. This weeks P&L = +1.25 points

2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
5 Year Total +582.27 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.