UA-33754892-1 Archives for 11 June 2017 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

US Open

US Open 2017

Unfortunately I have a very busy week this week so just a short preview.

Erin Hills, a course just 11 years old, hosts for the first time. The combination of this and the set up makes it feel more like a USPGA venue than a US Open. It is hard to get too much of a gauge on how Erin Hills will play.

I watched the 2011 US Amateur where Kelly Craft beat Patrick Cantlay in the final to try and get a feel for it.

It is firey, exposed and linksy. It is undulating, not just in elevation changes but also in uneven lies. The greens are quick (will be 13 on the stimp) and undulating. Many greens are upturned saucers with run off areas. The greens average 6500 square feet but some are huge and some are very small. The small ones tend to be long and narrow. The fairways are generous but need to be as it can get windy. It can also get cold. Storms are forecast which may soften it up which could benefit longer hitters, but all in it is going to be more about good control of approaches and a deft touch on and around the greens. Scoring will be a real mixed bag. There are 4 par 5s making up a par of 72 with two reachable par 4s, there will be birdies, but miss shots in the wrong spots and scores can accumulate alarmingly quickly. 7741 yards does look long and with fairways up to 80 yards wide it does on paper appear a bombers paradise, but as long as the rain does not soften it too much there will be plenty of chase on the ball.

I would definitely be more inclined to take Open form over US Open form for this venue. There are only 5 trees on the course, this means picking targets, course management and strategy become tougher. This would put me off players without some links form. Greens are bentgrass and there is a fair bit of rough around them, but there is breathing space before you reach the really rough stuff. This is the case from the tee too. The rough will be brutal but you have to hit pretty bad shots to find it.

I am thinking accuracy on the approach and a tidy short game will be served well here. I was amazed to read that, "Since Tiger's last win in a Major at the 2008 US Open, 22 of the 35 winners in Majors have been first timers, including 6 in the US Open (2009-2013, 2016). Each of the last 6 Major winners were crowned first timers." But I still think this looks like a track for an experienced campaigner who can limit errors.

My top 20, in order, looks like this:

World Ranking. Player. Best Price. Simulated Score.

2. Rory McIlroy. 12/1. -9.
5. Jordan Spieth. 14/1. -9.
7. Sergio Garcia. 25/1. -9.
13. Justin Thomas. 33/1 -9.
17. Francesco Molinari. 80/1 -9.
20. Kevin Kisner. 55/1 -9
27. Jason Dufner. 60/1 -9
30. Bernd Wiesberger. 150/1 -9
264. Ted Potter Jnr. 500/1 -9
3. Jason Day. -8. 14/1
8. Alex Noren. -8. 60/1
12. Adam Scott. -8. 33/1
15. Matt Kuchar. -8. 66/1
23. Phil Mickelson. -8. 50/1
60. Chris Wood. -8. 160/1
75. Alex Levy. -8. 300/1
148. Shugo Imahira. -8. 750/1
229. Oliver Bekker. -8. 1000/1
6. Henrik Stenson. -7. 33/1
9. Rickie Fowler. -7. 22/1

Notable Others

1. Dustin Johnson. -5. 8/1
4. Hideki Matsuyama. -6. 33/1
10. Jon Rahm. -5. 25/1
11. Justin Rose. -7. 25/1

My gut tells me that
Noren and Fowler are sure to have good weeks. Both go well on links (Scottish Open form), both are playing great and both appear poised. Fowler has the experience but maybe runs the risk of wanting/needing it too much. He performed great in the 2015 Majors but not so well in 2016. He also choked up a little when poised in The Masters but went well at Pinehurst, which is not a dissimilar test. 22/1 is short enough. Noren hasn't really shined in the Majors so far, but has 5 wins since the last US Open. 60/1 is fair and he is putting unreal, but he may have too many loose ones in him which could be exposed here.

Rory tops my rankings and will go into this fresh but it is hard to know where his game is. He has a new putter in the bag too apparently, the red TaylorMade Spider that every man and his dog appears to be using right now. If it clicks then why not? He is normally solid tee to green. His questionable short game could get exposed around Erin Hills.

Spieth is too short at 14/1. He has been poor from the tee but exceptional with his approach play. That could work here. More worrying is his relatively poor putting this year.

If the wind blows then this could be perfect for
Sergio. I know he is Masters Champion but 174th in putting can't be backed with confidence even at a generous 25/1.

Justin Thomas is much like Noren, more than capable but one feels he will have a stretch of inconsistency where numbers could rack up.

Francesco Molinari is my first bet. The Italian ball striking machine ranks 5th in scoring on Tour, 2nd in strokes gained approach and is coming off a 6th at Sawgrass and a 2nd at Wentworth. Tee to green he is a rock. He looks well suited and is big at 80/1.

Kevin Kisner ranks inside the top 40 in every major stat. He is solid throughout. That consistency is what I am looking for to cope with the Erin Hills challenge and he has proved he can deal with the wind, see Bay Hill earlier this year, win at RSM and playoff loss at Hilton Head. He is coming off a win at Colonial and 2nd at The Memorial, where he faced similar fast, undulating greens. 9th in proximity and 28th in scrambling, 9th in SG Approach and 5th in total strokes gained. There's a lot to like about him at 55/1.

I am also going to back
Bernd Wiesberger. He is sneaky long and has a solid long game. His putting is streaky but he finished 12th at Sawgrass in his last US start. In Europe his last 4 read 1st Shenzhen International, 4th Volvo China Open, 30th BMW PGA and 15th last week at the Lyoness in his homeland, Austria. 150/1 is worth backing.

Jason Dufner is backed at 60/1. The win at 'Jack's place' last time out will do him the world of good. More than anything it will prove to himself that he can putt the quick undulating greens. He must know this anyway otherwise he could not have finished in the top 10 in 3 of his last 5 US Opens with another top 20 too. What we know, and so does he, is that he is another player who is a machine tee to green. Add to that the fact he ranks 49th in putting (right next to Jordan Spieth) and we are seeing a very nice profile. His weak point this year, 125th in scrambling. Thankfully the tougher the scrambling the better he gets. He lead scrambling out of the brutal rough in his USPGA win.

My last bet is the big price hope,
Ted Potter Jnr at 500/1. He qualified for this and went and finished 2nd in the Rust-Oleum on the Web.com Tour. That was his 11th start, his 4th top 10 and 8th top 25. He has been playing some very nice stuff and has nothing to lose here. He has won on Tour before, this is a huge sep up as well as a huge ask, but he's got a chance of getting in the mix. He hits low bullets which could work in the wind here.

So there we go, a longer preview than expected! Enjoy the golf.

JK


US Open - Outright

1.81 points each way Kevin Kisner @ 55/1 (-3.62)
1.25 points each way Francesco Molinari @ 80/1 (-2.5)
1.67 points each way Jason Dufner @ 60/1 (-3.34)
0.67 points each way Bernd Weisberger @ 150/1 (-1.34)
0.02 points each way Ted Potter Jnr @ 500/1 (-0.04)


US Open - Specials

1 point Ted Potter Jnr to finish top 20 @ 18/1 (-1)
1 point each way Shugo Imahira to be top Japanese (1/4 1-2) (-2)

US Open - 72 Hole Matches (BET 365)

7 points Francesco Molinari to beat Billy Horschel @ 5/6 (+5.83)



(Already Advised)

Antepost 2017 Season
4 points Rory McIlroy to win a Major in 2017 @ 2/1 (Bet Victor)



This week's P&L =
-8.01
This week’s investment = 20.84 points

This week's Outright P&L =
-10.84
This weeks's Outright Investment = 10.84 points

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = +2.83
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 10 points



2017 Total P&L = -55.2
2017 Total Investment =  937.74 points

2017 Outright Bets P&L =  -133.06
2017 Outright Bets Investment = 462.48 points

2017 matches/specials/in running P&L =  +77.86
2017 matches/specials/in running investment = 582.4 points


2016 total +3.88 points
2015 total -116.28 points
2014 total -103.98 points
2013 total - 24.22 points
2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points
6 Year Total +469.87 points

To get the tips first and receive exclusive in running advice - send an email to
jason@jasonkellygolf.com with the subject ‘register'

My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A '1 point' bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then '1 point' signifies £10.













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