UA-33754892-1 Archives for 11 August 2013 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

Wyndham Championship

Last week:

Lets not dwell on last week for too long, it was a poor week for us. We identified the type of player who would win correctly but I overestimated the importance of putting well to win a Major. It has been a trend this year. Bad putters stepping it up. Adam Scott ranks 95th in putting on Tour and has finished top 5 in all but one of the Majors, and obviously won at Augusta. Rose ranks 147th in putting. Mickelson ranks 8th in putting and is the only Major winner this season who didn’t have big questions to answer withe the short stick. Dufner ranks 163rd and hit some dreadful putts, but what we forget is they nearly all found a way of going in.

We said we needed an accuracy player, a plodder. Last week the 3 main contenders were that. Of course Stenson has a little more flair than the other two but his strength this season is the fact he has started plodding it around better.







Category

Dufner

Furyk
Stenson

Driving accuracy

39

8
6

Greens in regulation

30

48
2

Strokes gained-putting

163

120
105

Putting inside 5 feet

178

39
90

Scrambling

105

55
122



For the record Dufner ranked 1st in scrambling too last week. It is hard to predict such transformations in a player. There was a clue as Stenson lead scrambling at Firestone and Dufner ranked 5th there, but still, how do you predict a player is going to massively overachieve, or more correctly, step up so much and perform to his full potential? That’s a hard thing to do. We knew Dufner was good enough but the evidence from this season he couldn’t be backed.

The thing that was reemphasised to me last week is;

When a course is set up tough go with good ball strikers who can be bad putters
and,
When courses are set up easy back good putters who
can be bad ball strikers.

I say can loosely, as it is still not the ideal.

One other point I would like to get out as it is much discussed at Majors. Woods doesn’t not win Majors now because “He is a bad driver of the golf ball.” He ranks 8th in total driving. He has under performed in Majors since 2008 because he drives it shorter, more wild, misses more greens, scrambles worse and makes less putts. He plays defensive and seems to go out trying not to lose rather than making his mark and dominating by doing things others could only dream of, like he used to. Like he did at Firestone. Regular Tour wins come easy to him and he needs to go out to win his Majors in the same manner. That goes the same for Westwood. He is physically good enough and he lost the USPGA through bad long game before the putter faltered. He had 68 putts through 3 rounds, that’s not bad putting! Lagging putts from 10ft when under the gun won’t win you Majors. Like Dufner said, the difference between round 3 and 4 was he realised he won’t have that many chances to win a Major so why not go out and try and win it instead of trying to rely on others mistakes. Woods and Westwood need to grab the bull by the horns a little more.

Stricker, another of my favourites, has been in the mix in two of the 2013 Majors and imploded. He now has not registered a top 5 in a Major since 1999. That is enough to put a line through him for the big 4 in 2014.

Anyway, back to my faults, we lost all 9.5 points invested last week. Bradley showed what he was capable of on day 4. Perhaps the Woods draw for the first three days wasn’t ideal for him despite what he said. Bill Haas lingered on the fringes all week but the man who has the most top 10’s on Tour this year is still yet to register a top 10 in a Major. Spieth missed the cut. Matt Jones flew up the leader board, like Bradley, on the final day but it was too late by then. Brandon Stone missed the cut from the bad side of the draw in Norway.

This week:

Jerry Kelly, Davis Love, Justin Leonard, Tim Clark, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Jason Bohn, Richard H Lee, Carl Pettersson, Brandt Snedeker and Chez Reavie all had to be considered as they have very strong course form at Sedgefield Country Club. However, they were each discounted for various reasons. Either recent form, poor stats or underpriced.

What is does show is that the par 70 at just over 7100 yards does suit straight hitters. You wouldn’t necessarily have thought this as the scoring does usually go deep at the Wyndham. The stat that backs this up is last year, proximity to the hole from the rough was the highest of any course on Tour at 52 feet, 1 inch. To back the importance of driving up, over 70% of greens in regulation were found last year. So it is not demanding to find the greens that average 6500 square feet, but it is tough to get it close from the rough which makes going low hard. Classic Donald Ross design.

My shortlist, in order. Brandt Snedeker 16/1, Matt Jones 100/1, Chris Kirk 60/1, Jordan Spieth 40/1, Bill Haas 18/1, Brendon De Jonge 66/1, Charles Howell III 80/1, Jimmy Walker 55/1, Cameron Tringale 150/1 and Boo Weekley 50/1.

Brandt Snedeker is a surprising 3rd in the betting. He would unquestionably be the favourite in my book having won two weeks ago in Canada. I like him this week, it is a great fit for him, especially with the newly laid, well, one year old, bermuda greens. However, 16/1 and no rounds under par in his last 8. I’m going to have to pass, but he is still the most likely winner in my book.

Matt Jones is a great price at 100/1. I would have him nearer 45-50/1. He played well in the last round at the USPGA shooting 68 to finish 40th. This should suit him too despite his poor course form. He ranks 5th in total driving and has no statistical weaknesses. He has a 2nd and a 7th in his last 3 starts. 100/1 is very big and if you are only going to have one bet this week, make it him.

A stat that I was disappointed not to use to our advantage last week was par 4 scoring. On par 70’s with only two par 5’s this is a useful stat. There was a clue with Dufner. He ranked 3rd in birdies or better on par 4’s and 6th in par 4 performance. Chris Kirk is 3rd in par 4 scoring. A good sign on this par 70. He finished 22nd last year here and is a fair price at 60/1. He also leads scrambling, which we saw the importance of in Dufner’s win last week. By the way, Matt Jones ranks 10th in par 4 performance.

Two players who are interesting this week are David Toms and Hideki Matsuyama. Toms showed a bounce back to form last week, finishing 7th at Oak Hill, despite us never seeing him hit a ball! This will suit too but I think quotes of 40/1 are a massive over reaction about a player who has been massively out of form for the most part of the season. I was hoping to see quotes of 100-125/1 about him! Matsuyama has proved to be the real deal. The Japanese youngster finished 10th in the US Open, 6th at Muirfield and 19th last week. An incredible run of form from any player let alone a 21 year old with limited experience. 33/1 seems generous on the face of it but I think that demanding schedule may just see him fizzle. That’s a lot of golf, travel and pressure to soak up and the adrenaline may not be there this week.

Jordan Spieth and Charles Howell III are two interesting runners. Jordan Spieth looks like he has another good opportunity here but 40/1 is about the right price about the talented 20 year old rookie. Chucky 3 Sticks I really like as a player and 80/1 looks big. He ranks 7th in scrambling and 18th in putting but despite what the commentators would have you think about his ball striking exploits, he ranks a very lowly 184th in fairways hit. We discussed the importance of this at Sedgefield so he is therefore dismissed.

Bill Haas is a very good player who also ranks 3rd in par 4 performance but 18/1 is a very poor price and is therefore passed over. Brendon De Jonge at 66/1 carries more appeal. He loves it when scoring goes low and finished 14th here last year. He ranks 35th in driving accuracy, 14th in greens and 19th in scrambling. He is worth an interest at an acceptable price in his home State.

Jimmy Walker has a lot to offer as a golfer apart from a decent return to his backers for a man of his talent. He finished 4th here last year and with his ability can shoot some very low numbers but 55/1 is tight enough and he hits it pretty wild (185th in driving accuracy). Cameron Tringale has a lot of ability and is under performing. He has no recent form of note and his course form is poor. However, his price to his stats look big and he looks like a likely improver at some point. The question is ‘is 150/1 big enough to take that gamble here?’ He is a very consistent player but only has one top 10 this season. He still sits 63rd on the FEDEX Cup ranking which sees him safely into the Barclays. There is not a huge reason for him to be here unless he felt he could improve that position and likes where his game is at. I’m going to have a little interest.

Boo Weekly is having a solid year now that he is injury free. His 12th last week in the USPGA shows he is in good nick too. He ranks an impressive 23rd in fairways hit, 6th in greens, 6th in total driving but 181st in putting. 55/1 is an ok price but the putter may stop him keeping up with the low numbers. I will leave him out.

One player I am going to put in, and I appreciate this is a little out of left field, is Doug Labelle II. His form is awful and he hasn’t played here since 2008 as he hasn’t been exempt. He finished 69th then. He currently sits 146th on the FEDEX Cup list and needs a huge week to get into the playoffs. The reason why I am giving him a chance is because he ranks 15th in driving accuracy and 17th in putting. That’s a combination that could be dangerous here if the rest of his game behaves. He only averages 280 yards from the tee which probably reflects in the rank of 116th in greens in regulation so this shorter course could suit. 500/1 is worth a small each way play.


Wyndham Championship

1 pt each way Matt Jones @ 100/1 (+10.83)

0.75 pts each way Chris Kirk @ 60/1 (-1.5)

0.75 pts each way Brendon De Jonge @ 66/1 (-1.5)

0.75 pts each way Cameron Tringale @ 150/1 (-1.5)

0.25 pts each way Doug Labelle II @ 500/1 (-0.5)



2013 running total = -115.94 pts. This week’s investment 7 points. This weeks P&L = +5.83 pts

2012 total +150.36 points
2011 total +370.78 points
2010 total +189.33 points

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My advice comes with a point system to rate the strength of a tip. A 1 point bet means placing your usual stake, so if you would consider your normal bet being £10 then a point signifies £10.

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