UA-33754892-1 Archives for 10 March 2019 | Jason Kelly Golf

Jason Kelly Golf

Golf Betting Tips

The Players Championship

The Players Championship - In Running

0.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 7/1 (-0.75)
0.5 units Dustin Johnson @ 14/1 (-0.5)

A nice way to break a four week run of second place finishes with a win for Justin Harding in Qatar. He has been knocking at the door for a while, and was ranked a surprisingly high 74th in the world going into the week. It is nice when a player stays relatively under the radar and one can capitalise.

Elsewhere we had some disappointments. Most notably Justin Rose, who lost the plot with the putter again at Bay Hill. Right after I said, "We can now call Rose a good putter, one thing I never thought I would say, but he has worked hard, experimented, committed and turned it into a strength." It certainly is a strange game.

On a more positive note we also landed winners at 25/1, 11/1, 11/2, 3/1, 4/1, 9/2 and 6/4 alongside our 55/1 Harding bet. Not a bad week.

This week I am not going to cover Kenya. I am on a plane to Florida as I write for a little golf in Orlando before venturing up to The Players Championship, so I will make that my focus this week.

The Players Championship

Now I love Sawgrass, a Pete Dye 1979 design full of variety and interest. Every aspect of your game is tested. Every inch of your nerve examined. I have played the course many times and love it. It helps if you can work it both ways from the tee and you have to be an accurate iron player, but it is a total test and very fair. If you play well there are low scores out there, but play bad and they will add up very quickly.

It doesn't look long at 7250 yards but it will be softer now moved forward to March from May. This also brings in a greater chance of rain and wind. Wind here is a nightmare. No two consecutive holes run in the same direction and picking where it is blowing from is a tough challenge. Holes like 17 don't become easier with any wind in any direction.

The hard thing about picking players at Sawgrass is every player you think would have a strong record here doesn't really. I mean look at Rose for example, one top 15 in 15 starts here. That is very hard to explain. There were a lot of players thrown up by the sim which offered value and initial appeal. A deeper look into their course form was immediately off-putting. The normally ultra consistent Paul Casey is another. I would love to back him here, especially with his recent form and his statistical suitability, but his course form since 2009 reads 14-mc-mc-wd-dnp-dnp-wd-23-22-dnp. Tony Finau another, one start and a 57th.

It is not really a horses for courses venue, bar maybe Ben Crane, who, despite never winning here, had an incredible record for a long time. Much like Charles Howell in Hawaii. Webb Simpson had poor course form before shooting -18 to win last year. I don't think the winning score will be anywhere near that this year.

So, who to back. Well, although lacking originality, Dustin Johnson looks a good option. 12/1 freely available, I would be 7/1. He has 4 wins in the last 9 months, 2 wins in the last 6 weeks (4 starts). His course form isn't great, mc-35-57-dnp-wd-59-69-28-12-17 but this move to March will suit. It makes the course longer and wider. He will still be able to dominate the par 5s and his iron play and wedges continue to improve. The poa they have added to the bermuda greens will help his putting. I like him to have a big week in a wide open event.

The only other player I am going to back at this time is Tommy Fleetwood. He has been simmering away for a while without much happening, but he looked to have clicked again last week finishing 3rd at Bay Hill. He came 7th here last year and he is a complete and confident player. He looks good value in the top 10 and 20 markets.

That's all for now. I will obviously be checking the in-running all week and may add a special or two in the lead up if anything jumps out.

To Win

0.5 units Dustin Johnson @ 12/1 (-0.5)

Top 5

1.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 3/1 (+0.42)

Top 10

2.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 15/8 (+4.22)
0.75 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 7/2 (+2.63)

Top 20

2.5 units Dustin Johnson @ 5/6 (+2.08)
1.25 units Tommy Fleetwood @ 17/10 (+2.13)

First Round Leader

0.25 units Dustin Johnson @ 28/1 (-0.25)

72 Hole Match Bet (SkyBet tie no bet)

no bets

This week's P&L = +9.73
This week’s investment = 10.25 units

This week's Outright P&L = +10.98
This weeks's Outright Investment = 9 units

This week's matches/specials/in running P&L = -1.25
This week's matches/specials/in running Investment = 1.25 units

2019 Total P&L = +89.19 units

2019 Total Investment = 201.5 units

2019 Outright Bets P&L = +81.65 units
2019 Outright Bets Investment = 176.25 units

2019 matches/specials/in running P&L = +7.54 units
2019 matches/specials/in running investment = 66.75 units

2018 total -21.47 units
2017 total -37.24 units
2016 total +3.88 units
2015 total -116.28 units
2014 total -103.98 units
2013 total - 24.22 units
2012 total +150.36 units
2011 total +370.78 units

2010 total +189.33 units
9 Year Total +411.16 units

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I rate my picks in units and I recommend you risk the following:

  • 0.25 units - 0.25% of bankroll
  • 0.5 units - 0.5% of bankroll
  • 0.75 units - 0.75% of bankroll
  • 1 unit - 1% of bankroll
  • 1.25 units - 1.25% of bankroll
  • 1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
  • 1.75 units - 1.75% of bankroll
  • 2 units - 2% of bankroll
  • ETC.